2021 NFL Draft Thread

[lavar703]

20 hours ago, 4209 said:

 

My feelings are this. If this is their guy and they believe he is a future franchise QB then go get him. Would you rather have multiple first rounders or Mahomes/Allen/Wilson etc?
 

This idea that you can continue to build a team and then put the QB in place is silly. All of those teams had to eventually trade up. I don’t want to end up like the Vikings who wasted years of a talented roster not being able to find a QB. We won’t keep this defense together long and if we don’t find a franchise QB to go along with it then we’ll be back to square one in a few years. A franchise QB keeps you competitive for a decade plus.

[Dr A W Niloc]

2 hours ago, offbyone said:

I like Trask too, but I also think he goes higher and will not be there at our second round pick.

In fact, he is the last of the possible starters in 2021.  Schmocks aren't enamored of him, possibly because of his average arm strength.

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I would boldly predict that a team like New England or Tampa might surprise us and grab him in the 1st. 

     Or New Orleans at #21, yes.  His performance numbers are quite good.

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Just look how the other non mobile pocket passer in this draft has shot up the boards.  I honestly don't see what Jones has on Trask other than playing at a bigger school. 

Well, that one is in the numbers.  First in completion percentage, 1st in deep yards, 2nd in screen yards, 4% drop rate, among the top five:  1st in Pressure to Sack Conversion Rate with 12.3%, 3rd (Tied for 27th overall) in Average Time to Throw, etc.  Consummate seam ripper.  Suffice it to say Shanahan/Lynch won't be thinking long on draft day.

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A lot of Mond lovers in this forum.  Sounds like he will also go in the second and likely before we pick.  Personally, I am not sure how you draft a qb that high who can't complete passes.

Mond won't be drafted as a starter with that arm but his other skills are impressive.  Which may be like saying "The operation was a success but the patient died."  My guess is that Kellen will be taken late by someone who thinks they can work on his mechanics.

[ripsean21]

25 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

In fact, he is the last of the possible starters in 2021.  Schmocks aren't enamored of him, possibly because of his average arm strength.

     Or New Orleans at #21, yes.  His performance numbers are quite good.

Well, that one is in the numbers.  First in completion percentage, 1st in deep yards, 2nd in screen yards, 4% drop rate, among the top five:  1st in Pressure to Sack Conversion Rate with 12.3%, 3rd (Tied for 27th overall) in Average Time to Throw, etc.  Consummate seam ripper.  Suffice it to say Shanahan/Lynch won't be thinking long on draft day.

Mond won't be drafted as a starter with that arm but his other skills are impressive.  Which may be like saying "The operation was a success but the patient died."  My guess is that Kellen will be taken late by someone who thinks they can work on his mechanics.

What’s wrong with Monds arm? Just because he isn’t mechanically popular who has a quicker release he has plenty of arm? And I think he will be picked alittle earlier then a late rounder

[offbyone]

23 minutes ago, ripsean21 said:

What’s wrong with Monds arm? Just because he isn’t mechanically popular who has a quicker release he has plenty of arm? And I think he will be picked alittle earlier then a late rounder

Not strength, rather ball location.

[Dr A W Niloc]

6 minutes ago, ripsean21 said:

What’s wrong with Monds arm? Just because he isn’t mechanically popular who has a quicker release he has plenty of arm? And I think he will be picked a little earlier then a late rounder

He does have above average arm strength, though it is rarely used to good effect (Tied for 103rd).  The problem is his average accuracy.  An Average Depth of Target of 77th isn't bad--it's better than both Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence--until you match it with a low completion rate (79th) and yardage rates (61st deep, 71st screen).  As you suggest, his delivery time is rather good (46th, behind Jones, Mills, and Lawrence) and his sack avoidance (8.6% under pressure) is downright remarkable.

[offbyone]

1 hour ago, lavar703 said:

I wonder how many QBs were ruined because they were just thrown out there? QBs used to sit for a year after being drafted. It was almost gospel and now it doesn’t matter the team surrounding them you just dump them out there and if they fail you replace them in a year or two. Nobody is developing them anymore. 

Totally agree, so many need time to sit.  But I would also guess just as many are ruined not because of starting immediately, but rather the situation they come into like- scheme,  players around them, coaching staff, lack of front office and coaches being on same page, etc .

Honestly, I don't really remember the days when the norm was to sit QBs for a year.  It seems like a decade ago before the new CBA rookie qbs were paid so extravagantly that sitting was even harder to rationalize.  You would think front offices would do it more now with the rookie wage scale but it doesn't seem like that is a real trend.

[4209]

15 hours ago, lavar703 said:

My feelings are this. If this is their guy and they believe he is a future franchise QB then go get him. Would you rather have multiple first rounders or Mahomes/Allen/Wilson etc?
 

This idea that you can continue to build a team and then put the QB in place is silly. All of those teams had to eventually trade up. I don’t want to end up like the Vikings who wasted years of a talented roster not being able to find a QB. We won’t keep this defense together long and if we don’t find a franchise QB to go along with it then we’ll be back to square one in a few years. A franchise QB keeps you competitive for a decade plus.

Okay @lavar703 at what price. Are you willing to go all in. Give them all of your draft picks for this yr  and the next yr. The niners gave up 3 No.1's and a 3rd rd. So how much draft capital will you be willing to offer to move from 19 to 4 and forget moving to any of the top 3 spots.  Suppose Trey falls to 7-9 what would be you offer. That's at least 3 No 1's. How much are willing to go all in any of these scenarios and don't come half stepping either LO 

Edited April 10, 2021 by 4209

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, 4209 said:

Okay @lavar703 at what price. Are you willing to go all in. Give them all of your draft picks for this yr  and the next yr. The niners gave up 3 No.1's and a 3rd rd. So how much draft capital will you be willing to offer to move from 19 to 4 and forget moving to any of the top 3 spots.  Suppose Trey falls to 7-9 what would be you offer. That's at least 3 No 1's. How much are willing to go all in any of these scenarios and don't come half stepping either LO 

I don’t think we know what it will cost to move up to the top 10 as of right now. A lot of people compare the RG3 trade to trades since, but we swapped firsts, gave our 2012 2nd & two more 1st round picks for RG3 because of the prospect he was. Some scouts argued in terms of upside that RG3 had more upside that even Luck at the time.

There’s only 1 QB in the Luck/RG3 type of prospect realm in this draft and that’s Lawrence.

I think the trade would be a 2021 1st round pick swap, our 2022 1st round pick and some other picks if we want to move in the top 7 in hopes of getting Fields, Lance or Jones.

Edited April 10, 2021 by turtle28

[lavar703]

1 hour ago, 4209 said:

Okay @lavar703 at what price. Are you willing to go all in. Give them all of your draft picks for this yr  and the next yr. The niners gave up 3 No.1's and a 3rd rd. So how much draft capital will you be willing to offer to move from 19 to 4 and forget moving to any of the top 3 spots.  Suppose Trey falls to 7-9 what would be you offer. That's at least 3 No 1's. How much are willing to go all in any of these scenarios and don't come half stepping either LO 

I don’t care about draft picks the way other people do. We’ve been building through the draft for the last 7 years or so and we still have nothing at QB. We’re now on the verge of having an elite defense but still no QB. We can always spend the next three years hoping we’re bad enough to get back into the top 10 but rarely is there 5 QBs who are looked at as top 10 picks so these opportunities are few and far between which is why so many of us wanted to lose. So you can make the trade now while this defense is cheap and still young or you can wait 2-3 years when some of these guys need to get paid and have to trade up anyway.
 

In the 7-9 range you aren’t giving up three ones. I’d be totally fine giving up this years first and second, next years first and a third. I think that’s pretty good value for a team in that range and we aren’t totally mortgaging our future because we can always use our two thirds to get back into the second if someone they really like falls. 
 

I just don’t understand what a lot of fans that say not to trade or to wait until next year are expecting to happen? We have one of the leagues best DCs and a coach who never goes under 7-9 for the most part. This is what we are now. This defense is far too talented not to win some games on its own so we’re going to be doing this same song and dance next year. So yes, if they’ve targeted Lance and Turner thinks he’s a franchise guy then go get him. If you miss, who cares? We’re right back to where we would’ve been anyway. Fitzpatrick is a road to nowhere. Same with Allen and most likely Heinecke. 

[ovfd55]

12 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

I don’t care about draft picks the way other people do. We’ve been building through the draft for the last 7 years or so and we still have nothing at QB. We’re now on the verge of having an elite defense but still no QB. We can always spend the next three years hoping we’re bad enough to get back into the top 10 but rarely is there 5 QBs who are looked at as top 10 picks so these opportunities are few and far between which is why so many of us wanted to lose. So you can make the trade now while this defense is cheap and still young or you can wait 2-3 years when some of these guys need to get paid and have to trade up anyway.
 

In the 7-9 range you aren’t giving up three ones. I’d be totally fine giving up this years first and second, next years first and a third. I think that’s pretty good value for a team in that range and we aren’t totally mortgaging our future because we can always use our two thirds to get back into the second if someone they really like falls. 
 

I just don’t understand what a lot of fans that say not to trade or to wait until next year are expecting to happen? We have one of the leagues best DCs and a coach who never goes under 7-9 for the most part. This is what we are now. This defense is far too talented not to win some games on its own so we’re going to be doing this same song and dance next year. So yes, if they’ve targeted Lance and Turner thinks he’s a franchise guy then go get him. If you miss, who cares? We’re right back to where we would’ve been anyway. Fitzpatrick is a road to nowhere. Same with Allen and most likely Heinecke. 

I think it more of Washingtons fans sense of doom of drafting a QB in 1st since we really haven't had a 1st round QB work,in the Super bowl era we've drafted 5 QBs in the 1st

Washington (five): Dwayne Haskins (2019); Robert Griffin III (2012); Jason Campbell (2005); Patrick Ramsey (2002); Heath Shuler (1994).

So can understand why Fans are gun shy on trading up to get one.

I think pick 7 or 8 is where we'd need to be to get Lance or Fields(If 9ers are taking Mac)Think ATL already shown they don't want a QB while shopping the Pick and the 4 of the 5 teams that would trade up for QB I think are to far back to give up enough.Also think Bengals are set on getting the best guy to help Burrow reather thats Chase Sewell or PItts,And dolphins wouldn't of traded back up to 6 just to trade down again they have someone in mind for them to prob whomever the Falcons and Bengals don't pick.

Think a team rebuilding like the Lions with new Coach and GM would be willing to move back and get more guys esp if the top 3 of Pitts Sewell and Chase are gone and Panther would be willing to move back to recoup some of the picks they gave away in the Darnold trade

[Woz]

On 3/31/2021 at 3:35 PM, ripsean21 said:

He’s a guy I wouldn’t bet against that’s why I want to go BPA and hopefully bring this guy in. I mean Dallas didn’t know what they drafted in Dak.

Dallas also tried to do everything in their power not to go with Dak in his rookie year. He just got insanely lucky with injuries to the guys in front of him.

First, Kellen Moore (the primary backup to Romo) broke his leg during the first week of training camp.
Then, Cleveland turned down the Cowboys' offer to trade for Josh McCown.
Then, Dallas named Jameill Showers Romo's backup.
Then, Dallas decided to put Prescott in as the starter for their first preseason game and saw him go 10-12, 139 yds, and 2 TDs. That didn't bump Showers from the #2 until after Week 2.
THEN, he needed Romo to hurt his back again.

And even with all of that, it wasn't clear that Prescott was going to get the starting gig going into the season until right before opening day.

On 3/31/2021 at 3:35 PM, ripsean21 said:

Seattle didn’t know what they had with Russ.

If Washington was to draft Mond, Seattle's situation in 2012 is probably a decent comp from the perspective of the rookie QB being drafted having a chance at getting the starting gig. Seattle had just signed Matt Flynn (who barely had any starting time in Green Bay) and some other random QB I cannot recall (Matt Hasselbeck had just retired). Any drafted QB, even one from the mid rounds, would have a pretty decent shot this season.

 

[Woz]

On 4/3/2021 at 3:45 AM, e16bball said:

Worth a watch...

Is he intentionally channeling Owen Wilson? His analysis is interesting, but his cadence and phrasing make think he's on some sort of substance.

EDIT: Ah, saw your response later.

Edited April 10, 2021 by Woz

[Woz]

On 4/6/2021 at 3:22 PM, ARTMONK HOF said:

 

What's interesting to me is that he points to the Giants. They probably should but won't.

[Woz]

On 4/1/2021 at 9:30 PM, turtle28 said:

I agree with that, just pointing out where Drafttek had him and they do the average of all the mock drafts & Im pretty sure they have good connections too.

Minor aside: DraftTek no longer does an average of multiple big boards (hasn't in awhile). They have their own board they maintain.

[Woz]

21 hours ago, lavar703 said:

I wonder how many QBs were ruined because they were just thrown out there? QBs used to sit for a year after being drafted. It was almost gospel and now it doesn’t matter the team surrounding them you just dump them out there and if they fail you replace them in a year or two. Nobody is developing them anymore. 

QBs used to also be signed for 7-8 year contracts and not have free agency or the ability to change teams easily too.

Different era, different rules.