2021 Free Agency

[jimkelly02]

12 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I'm not a cap expert but PFF projected that John Johnson III will probably get a 4 yr/$50M deal ($12.5M avg) and Leonard Williams will probably get a 4 yr/$72M deal ($18.0M avg) if they hit free agency. Is there anyway that we can make roster moves to clear up enough space to afford both guys? 

I’d concur with your estimates.... although I believe 18M would be the starting bid for LW and he’s likely to get 20M.  it doesn’t take a cap expert to guess the “Tier 1 UFA’s”.... they pretty much get deals in line but slightly more than similar players to them in ability/production and age .... although every so often a desperate/dumb GM gives a guy like Nassib 9m, lol. The overpays general happen on the Tier 2 level of FA.  
 

https://overthecap.com/position/4-3-defensive-tackle/

LW is almost guaranteed more then Kenny Clark’s 18.5M APY and could even get Chris Jones’s 20M.

https://overthecap.com/position/safety/
Simmons should reset the Safeties highest paid player and get 15.5-16M depending on the number of teams bidding.  Marcus Williams, Marcus Maye, John Johnson, and Anthony Harris should all get 11.5-13M apy.

[jimkelly02]

11 hours ago, big_palooka said:

Glad someone is saying it. Prior to this season the book on Leo Williams was he "isn't the pass rusher expected he'd be".

He was a solid DT, but just a guy with the Jets.

Williams has always had high pressure numbers.... he just wasn’t finishing them and getting the sacks.  People forget he came into the league at 20 And is just 26yo and hitting his prime.  I fully believe the Jets didn’t use him properly and he might have even not been giving his all... which Blame him too much for.  The Giants moves him around and he got some sacks playing  DE.  I think he’s going to have 4 years of 7.0-12.0 sacks in the future... if he lands with a well coaches, decent team.

[oakdb36]

2 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

Williams has always had high pressure numbers.... 

2018: 26

2019: 23

2020: 41

It's a huge jump...

[big_palooka]

3 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

Williams has always had high pressure numbers.... he just wasn’t finishing them and getting the sacks.  People forget he came into the league at 20 And is just 26yo and hitting his prime.  I fully believe the Jets didn’t use him properly and he might have even not been giving his all... which Blame him too much for.  The Giants moves him around and he got some sacks playing  DE.  I think he’s going to have 4 years of 7.0-12.0 sacks in the future... if he lands with a well coaches, decent team.

I remember this was the selling point for Malik Collins. 

I do trust Leo personally. I think he's a stud and wanted to trade for him when he was available.

[agarcia34]

Yannick time with the Ravens was a disappointment. Had 5 sacks with his little time with the Vikings. Then only 3 with the Ravens. Last night played only 20 snaps. Not sure the fit with him standing up is working. Could see him hit FA 

 

Kerry Hyder from the 49ers would be a DT worth looking into. Former Cowboy so Rod knows him. Played in a similar style of defense as Bradley will run and had 8.5 sacks. Played 4 seasons and in two of them he’s had 8 sacks. 

Edited January 17, 2021 by agarcia34

[jimkelly02]

3 hours ago, oakdb36 said:

2018: 26

2019: 23

2020: 41

It's a huge jump...

No...  he had 34, 39, 52 pressures

And never said he dishrag make a big jump this year..... I said he did... but that he’s always had decent pressure stats.  

[jimkelly02]

1 hour ago, big_palooka said:

I remember this was the selling point for Malik Collins. 

I do trust Leo personally. I think he's a stud and wanted to trade for him when he was available.

Collins had the same “issue” yes... but I feel LW has always played a level above MC even on his best season

[oakdb36]

2 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said:

No...  he had 34, 39, 52 pressures

And never said he dishrag make a big jump this year..... I said he did... but that he’s always had decent pressure stats.  

Yes. Different sources have different numbers. Regardless of numbers, it shows the same trend.

[Frankie2Gunz]

6 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

Williams has always had high pressure numbers.... he just wasn’t finishing them and getting the sacks.  People forget he came into the league at 20 And is just 26yo and hitting his prime.  I fully believe the Jets didn’t use him properly and he might have even not been giving his all... which Blame him too much for.  The Giants moves him around and he got some sacks playing  DE.  I think he’s going to have 4 years of 7.0-12.0 sacks in the future... if he lands with a well coaches, decent team.

I agree with all of this but that being said you bring up a few good questions.  

Will we use him properly which is something we haven't been able to do with any of our FA signings for as long as I can remember?.  If he starts getting doubled and can't generate any pressure, neutralizing him like his time on the Jets and our D is still a joke with him, will be stop giving it his all? 

20 million is a bit steep for a player who has flashed for 1 year and as you bring up may not have given it his all.  I like Williams but I would much rather draft an impact 3T rather than pay one 20 for 1 productive year.  Easier said than done though

[Frankie2Gunz]

I will also say that come draft day as it currently stands (prior to FA) we really need to hit on a 3T, CB and S.

I have been looking at mocks and while needs can change based on who we land via FA some players that intrigue me within the first 3 rounds are:  I'm not putting players like Surtain on here bc he'll be gone by 17.  If Horn is there at 17 I would not be opposed to taking him, he has the makings of a #1 Cb which this team is lacking.  

3T: Baramore, Wilson, Nixon

5T: Shelvin

CB: Horn, Campbell

S: Holland, Cisco

[drfrey13]

38 minutes ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

I will also say that come draft day as it currently stands (prior to FA) we really need to hit on a 3T, CB and S.

I have been looking at mocks and while needs can change based on who we land via FA some players that intrigue me within the first 3 rounds are:  I'm not putting players like Surtain on here bc he'll be gone by 17.  If Horn is there at 17 I would not be opposed to taking him, he has the makings of a #1 Cb which this team is lacking.  

3T: Baramore, Wilson, Nixon

5T: Shelvin

CB: Horn, Campbell

S: Holland, Cisco

I will take 2 of the 3Ts please.  If we draft a starting 3T I would like to see us go after Tomlinson over Hankins.  If we spend on a 3T we probably need to settle on Hankins who will cost half of what Tomlinson will.

[jimkelly02]

49 minutes ago, oakdb36 said:

Yes. Different sources have different numbers. Regardless of numbers, it shows the same trend.

Agreed.... 

https://sisdatahub.com/players/226

I’ve always found this site to have very good, accurate stats btw

LW definitely made a very big jump this past year.  It was his first full year in the NYG defense after being with the Jets.  
 

the question is will LW continue to play at the ‘20 level And be worth 18-20?  It’s a question even supporters of his MUST ask.... and it’s a complicated one that really doesn’t have a definitive answer.  I want to be fully upfront here: I’m absolutely not saying I know LW will not regress, I could never know what the future will hold- no one can.  All I’m saying is I believe LW has finally reached his potential and I believe he will continue to play at a level that is worth the money.

I don’t think he’s going to give you 4-5 years of no less than 10 sacks... as sacks totals even for the Most consistent players vary a good degree..... even in the prime years of these players seeing a 33-40% variance in sack totals is incredibly common.  Arik Armstead had 10 sacks then dropped to 3.5 while his pressures only dropped from 42 To 34 and QB hits only moved from 22 to 21.

So did LW just have a contract year season and will regress to A 5-6 sack player for the remainder of his bib new deal?   I don’t BELIEVE that will happen.  I think he was held back by the jets and once he landed with the Giants for a full season he played at the Level he’s capable of.  He did have 7 sacks as a 22 year old 2yr player so this isn’t his only big year.  He’s also hitting his peak years at 26 currently and would Be 27,28,29,30 throughout a 4 year deal.  Also, he played with Tomlinson and Dexter Lawrence this year and the talent around him allowed him to move around.  He rushed from ALL over the DL.... even 9 wide.  That brings up the question: will be produce the same without those players and if we play him mostly as a 3 and 5 tech can he still get that production.

Anytime You spend 80m there’s going to be concerns and this deal has quite a Few.  But we have to take a chance if it’s available.... he could transform this DL.  His play could do wonders to help improve Ferrell and Crosby.  
 

I think LW will continue to play at this level Because he wins so many different ways: with speed, with agility and length, with power, etc etc.

https://youtu.be/Bp_MArUPsdw

https://youtu.be/hsX09RvbqDo

[jimkelly02]

1 minute ago, drfrey13 said:

I will take 2 of the 3Ts please.  If we draft a starting 3T I would like to see us go after Tomlinson over Hankins.  If we spend on a 3T we probably need to settle on Hankins who will cost half of what Tomlinson will.

I agree.... I think the 2 top possibilities are:

1) Sign Leonard Williams, resign Hankins, draft a backup NT in rounds 5-6

2) Sign Dalvin Tomlinson and draft Barmore in round 1 and a backup NT in rounds 5-6

..... either way I think we really should draft a run stuffing NT in the later rounds.  I said all TC we need a second NT to Stop the run.  You can find solid run stuffing DTs in the later rounds these days and having depth on the DL is very important.

 

[jimkelly02]

1 hour ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

I agree with all of this but that being said you bring up a few good questions.  

Will we use him properly which is something we haven't been able to do with any of our FA signings for as long as I can remember?.  If he starts getting doubled and can't generate any pressure, neutralizing him like his time on the Jets and our D is still a joke with him, will be stop giving it his all? 

20 million is a bit steep for a player who has flashed for 1 year and as you bring up may not have given it his all.  I like Williams but I would much rather draft an impact 3T rather than pay one 20 for 1 productive year.  Easier said than done though

first... thank you for recognizing that I am Being objective and not stating opinions as facts.   I believe LW should be signed if available and should play at a level consistent with his pay.  But I am not stating that as a fact... there are valid questions that need to be discussed and no one can know what the future holds.  Even though I have made my opinion that we should try and sign him I still recognize others who disagree have valid reasons for such.

The problem is I don’t believe there are any first year impact DTs In this draft.  All of the DTs at the top are very raw, especially Barmore.  He’s only 20 Years old And never played a full Starters workload.... even this shortened year.  And he’s incredibly raw, albeit very talented.

I don’t think that being double teamed is a fair explanation for LW’s possible lack of effort.  I think it was Way more likely If it Did occur it was the result of a young Player playing on a horrible team With horrible coaches and culture and not giving 110%.  It’s not like he was dogging it out there.  He just might not have been Giving the extra 10% all out effort, which is what caused the leap In production.

LW is such an amazing talent- the length, power, speed, agility.  It’s everything you want in a DT.  I may be wrong but I think he’s the guy who can be the one who gets Ferrell and Crosby to explode. 
 

Sacks rarely come from one player making a Sack on their own in under 2 Seconds.  You ever notice teams with high sack totals have lots of players who have very good years?  That’s because the first guy thru doesn’t make the sack, he opens things up and pushes the QB towards the other guys.  Ferrell and Crosby could get really high sack totals with “clean up” sacks.  They get pressure consistently but rarely is it a quick sack.  Add a guy like LW who can get quick pressure and you’ll see Crosby and Ferrell make a lot more plays.

Also.... we need a speed rushing DE.  Someone who can also get quick pressure.  If we can add a 3T like Williams and a 3rd down speed specialist DE we can really pressure the QB IMO... the pass rush Would totally be transformed.

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by jimkelly02

[drfrey13]

12 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said:

I agree.... I think the 2 top possibilities are:

1) Sign Leonard Williams, resign Hankins, draft a backup NT in rounds 5-6

2) Sign Dalvin Tomlinson and draft Barmore in round 1 and a backup NT in rounds 5-6

..... either way I think we really should draft a run stuffing NT in the later rounds.  I said all TC we need a second NT to Stop the run.  You can find solid run stuffing DTs in the later rounds these days and having depth on the DL is very important.

 

I think the backup NT is were both of us where sounding the alarm bell last offseason.  Thankfully Hankins stayed healthy.  We do not need a good backup NT but some one that hold a double team just in case.  Imagine how many yards we woud have given up on the ground if Hankins had gone down with injury or covid.