Future QB Discussion

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

19 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

This presupposes we are in a position to get a QB of future this year.   And if you can do that said QB can make you a contender this year.

I think neither are likely true.  Its outside possible as we have seen stranger things in NFL, but highly, highly unlikely.

I fear all we are going to end up doing is spending valuable resources on a stop gap and hamstringing the team from resetting with a FA or college QB in 2022.  

 

 

 

As always. I agree with your (football) ideas and want to subscribe to your newsletter sir.

 

The damaging thing about our situation, is that we need a ton of luck to be decent enough to save jobs that I don't necessarily want saved.  We somehow need to get a starting QB that's not Nick, upgrade OT, trade away expensive old man contracts, keep or replace AR12, fortify DL, S, TE, OLB... Some of those things are within in-house control, like trading Akiem Hicks or Fuller, but the first-and most important-item on that list is going to be difficult to the point where we need either outsized luck to make it happen, or a future crippling trade.  The odds of etting lucky are very very slim (very), like we need the 5th or 6th QB off the board to somehow be as good as the second or third in their rookie year (yikes). OR we need to absolutely cripple the team in terms of both draft capital and salary cap to get Watson or maybe to move way up in draft, and then we're counting on really nailing all our late round picks and getting starters.  If you were a dispassionate observer, would you rate the chances of getting more than 2 things on that list right?  

[Superman(DH23)]

Real quick notes:

With regards to Watsons potential loss, Pat McAfee has broke this down. He can be fined

200K for missing minicamp

55k per day for missing TC

620K per game he misses.

Whether or not there are preseason games effects the total.

 

My expectation at this point is that Bears starter next year will be Jimmy G or Derek Carr.  I'd love to bring in Watson.  If he can be had for 2 1s plus Kyle Fuller and Akiem Hicks, that would be ideal.  Idk if that's going to be enough.  I wouldnt mind a deal for Hurts that wasnt anything more than a 2nd + sweetener.  I will be furious if they draft Mac Jones in the 1st.  I would be ok with a trade back for Trey Lance.  My #1 preference is to get an OT in the first and start making the OL a strength instead of a weakness.

[dll2000]

38 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

As always. I agree with your (football) ideas and want to subscribe to your newsletter sir.

 

The damaging thing about our situation, is that we need a ton of luck to be decent enough to save jobs that I don't necessarily want saved.  We somehow need to get a starting QB that's not Nick, upgrade OT, trade away expensive old man contracts, keep or replace AR12, fortify DL, S, TE, OLB... Some of those things are within in-house control, like trading Akiem Hicks or Fuller, but the first-and most important-item on that list is going to be difficult to the point where we need either outsized luck to make it happen, or a future crippling trade.  The odds of etting lucky are very very slim (very), like we need the 5th or 6th QB off the board to somehow be as good as the second or third in their rookie year (yikes). OR we need to absolutely cripple the team in terms of both draft capital and salary cap to get Watson or maybe to move way up in draft, and then we're counting on really nailing all our late round picks and getting starters.  If you were a dispassionate observer, would you rate the chances of getting more than 2 things on that list right?  

Funny thing is if you bring everyone back including Mitch and have health luck you can make wild card playoffs and save everyone's  jobs as long as you don't get blown out in playoffs and leave on a sour note.   Mitch has no learning curve that a new guy would have.  

Quinn and Mack have been very good and can be very good.  I strongly suspect Quinn and Trevathan came in out of shape because they assumed there would be no season or it would be delayed a long time.  

 Nichols is a player on rise.   Goldman will be back which makes a big difference in run stopping and has a multiplier effect on Roquan Smiths effectiveness.

Jaylon Johnson is good when healthy.  Jackson is a momentum player and if he doesnt get his TDs called back will feed on that.  Fuller is a decent player.

Robinson and Mooney are combo Bears have been looking for at WR for a very long time.

You are an upgrade at OT from being a 10 -11 win team even with average to bad QB play (assuming decent health).

Your best bet to save your position IMO is to run it back again with same squad plus hope for a good player from draft to make an impact somewhere.   

New QBs usually take time, even Brady started crappy in Tampa.

 

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by dll2000

[Madmike90]

2 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Real quick notes:

With regards to Watsons potential loss, Pat McAfee has broke this down. He can be fined

200K for missing minicamp

55k per day for missing TC

620K per game he misses.

Whether or not there are preseason games effects the total.

 

My expectation at this point is that Bears starter next year will be Jimmy G or Derek Carr.  I'd love to bring in Watson.  If he can be had for 2 1s plus Kyle Fuller and Akiem Hicks, that would be ideal.  Idk if that's going to be enough.  I wouldnt mind a deal for Hurts that wasnt anything more than a 2nd + sweetener.  I will be furious if they draft Mac Jones in the 1st.  I would be ok with a trade back for Trey Lance.  My #1 preference is to get an OT in the first and start making the OL a strength instead of a weakness.

This would be my 1a choice for a 2nd round pick...having read what the Eagles fans are saying a 2nd should do it...get an OT in round 1...Hurts for a 2nd...TE/WR in the 3rd then another quality power back in the 5th...keep Robinson with the tag and suddenly that offence has a lot of ways to beat you.

[WindyCity]

1 hour ago, Madmike90 said:

This would be my 1a choice for a 2nd round pick...having read what the Eagles fans are saying a 2nd should do it...get an OT in round 1...Hurts for a 2nd...TE/WR in the 3rd then another quality power back in the 5th...keep Robinson with the tag and suddenly that offence has a lot of ways to beat you.

The buzz today is that it is Wentz that the Eagles are listening on.

[Madmike90]

40 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

The buzz today is that it is Wentz that the Eagles are listening on.

Much harder to move Wentz with that contract tho.

[topwop1]

2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

The buzz today is that it is Wentz that the Eagles are listening on.

I don't buy it for a second. They fired Peterson for a reason...because he didn't see eye to eye with Wentz...and now they want to move him all of a sudden ?

They hired Sirianni from Indy as HC because he worked under Reich who just happened to have the most success coaching Wentz 

It's not hard to connect the dots here. I think Eagles are just trying to drive up Hurts' value

[topwop1]

2 hours ago, Madmike90 said:

Much harder to move Wentz with that contract tho.

Agreed bad contract.  He's not getting moved unless another team is really desperate and Philly sends a pick or two back like Rams did with Goff..and like the Texans did with Osweiler back in the day

 

[topwop1]

6 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Real quick notes:

With regards to Watsons potential loss, Pat McAfee has broke this down. He can be fined

200K for missing minicamp

55k per day for missing TC

620K per game he misses.

Whether or not there are preseason games effects the total.

 

My expectation at this point is that Bears starter next year will be Jimmy G or Derek Carr.  I'd love to bring in Watson.  If he can be had for 2 1s plus Kyle Fuller and Akiem Hicks, that would be ideal.  Idk if that's going to be enough.  I wouldnt mind a deal for Hurts that wasnt anything more than a 2nd + sweetener.  I will be furious if they draft Mac Jones in the 1st.  I would be ok with a trade back for Trey Lance.  My #1 preference is to get an OT in the first and start making the OL a strength instead of a weakness.

I don't think Texans would want either Hicks or Fuller. They are two aging players with high cap hits. They are going to want younger rising players such as Roquan, Nichols and Jaylon who are on cheap contracts 

 

[WindyCity]

Schefter said that Wentz wants to leave and the Eagles will listen.

The speculation was that Wentz may have wanted Hurts traded and the Eagles said no 

[Heinz D.]

35 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Schefter said that Wentz wants to leave and the Eagles will listen.

The speculation was that Wentz may have wanted Hurts traded and the Eagles said no 

Want no part of Wentz unless it's for the vet minimum. 

No one is trading for Wentz, and that contract. The Eagles are absolutely stuck. 

[Heinz D.]

1 hour ago, topwop1 said:

I don't think Texans would want either Hicks or Fuller. They are two aging players with high cap hits. They are going to want younger rising players such as Roquan, Nichols and Jaylon who are on cheap contracts 

Fuller's a close to elite player, and still has a lot of years left. 

However, I'd trend towards Johnson, Nichols, Goldman, even Jackson. I wouldn't include Smith in any trade...for anybody. Outside of Mahommes, I guess.

Since we're discussing Watson...and, I still don't think Chicago is a likely landing spot for him...let's break it down from Watson's side.

If he is still actually infuriated at Pace for bypassing him in the draft, fine--weird, but fine. 

However...if you can come to Chicago and make the Bears a perennial contender...that's huge.

Think about it. Chicago is a football town. You come in, win a Super Bowl as a Bears QB? Or even keep knocking on that door?

The adoration, and the MONEY, is immense. I don't think we should ignore this aspect of things, going forward. Watson isn't an idiot. 

 

[Uncle Buck]

12 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Want no part of Wentz unless it's for the vet minimum. 

No one is trading for Wentz, and that contract. The Eagles are absolutely stuck. 

I agree with you on that.  The Rams were able to unload Goff and his bad contract, but he has been playing better than Wentz was last year.  For a team to take Wentz on, they would be getting a monster contract and a lousy QB who might be able to regain his form from 3 years ago.  No way am I paying top dollar to gamble on a 50-50 (or worse) proposition.

[JAF-N72EX]

23 hours ago, Epyon said:

That said, @ thread in general.... I don't really want Carr, and I'm less and less interested in Watson.  Carr has way more talent around him in vegas than he'll ever hope to have in chicago and can't even come close to getting it done. I fail to see how that's any better than we already had in Trubisky.  As for Watson, he's good, but imo he isn't good enough to drop 4x 1s on... and I'd be pretty reluctant to even drop 3x 1s on him..... This whole situation with him honestly rubs me the wrong way.  It's fine to be mad at a dysfunctional trainwreck of an organization, but this whole thing allegedly started because he wasn't included in the GM and HC hiring decisions as a player.... which isn't his job.... I'd add, Texas had him, and still sucked consistently.

In Carr's defense, he didn't have the best WR/TE corps during his first few years in the league and he still played pretty well and made it work.  Amari Cooper wasn't the same Amari that he is now. I'm not sure what changed but him, Seth Roberts, and Crabtree had the most combined drops in the league for 2 years straight IIRC. Cooper and Seth were both #1 and #2 in open field drops(clear drops w/ no defender contact) in one season alone. Those aren't just stats either....you saw it in games. The amount of drops were terrible! 

Now, with that said, is Carr a better QB than Foles and Mitch.....absolutely. But is he good enough to make our offensive players better as a whole and put us over the hill?  Not likely. At best, he would just make our attempt to climb to the top a bit easier by carrying more of the weight. 

Is he worth the 20th pick?  No. Not for us he isn't. Not right now anyhow.  But a team like the Dolphins or 49ers with Shanny and that squad they have built? Yes.....absolutely.  I just don't think Carr has the mobility to fit into Nagy's system without having an elite OL imo.  The same reason I fear drafting Jones. 

But other than that, I agree with the majority of this.  IMO, Mahomes is the ONLY player I would trade 3 FRPs plus more for right now. And to be honest, I'm not even sure that would be in our best interest long-term given our current situation. 

You don't trade away that much capital for a QB unless you are a QB away from a SB.  Are we a QB away from winning the SB in 2021? That's tough for me to say yes to. What about 2022?  Without some creative thinking and manuevering...def not!

 

22 hours ago, Sugashane said:

If Watson isn't available then we need to go after a rookie and try to get talent around him. Carr isn't doing anything under Nagy and is pretty much a guarantee that we lose ARob too. I'm fine with a rookie fighting Foles for the spot because if he can't beat out Foles then he really needs to sit out anyway. Our OTs are expensive liabilities, correct them and we will see an improvement in the run and pass game at least.

 

If Pace/Nagy can't get their QB this year then I'm all for rolling with Foles and a project QB and using a 1st this year to build the OL s that the next QB is walking into a stable foundation that he can trust, instead of trying to run for his life in a pile of mud on every play.
 

18 hours ago, BP42 said:

Nobody shoot me, I’m just saying but what if Mitch is truly the best option for the upcoming season. Is that too hard to believe? 

Even if he was the best option. It's not an option I would want. But neither is Foles. 

I'll entertain this idea for a second, but only in a realistic manner, because the likely hood of Mitch being a Bear next year is almost zero percent and Pace/Nagy/Foles is the reason why.

1) There is no way in hell Pace/Nagy can walked into McCaskey's office and tell him that they are going with roll with Mitch/Foles again this season when their seats are as hot as the bright sun in the open desert. They would be fired immediately if they tried to sell that to anyone after the disaster we saw last year. Not even the ignorantly blinded McCaskey would fall for that.  

2) It would cost 4M to cut Foles at the QB position, plus cash.  Which means that if you sign Mitch to a one year 6-8M deal then you are essentially making that a 10-12M deal because you had to release another QB who just cost you 4M to release him to fill a spot. 

This means the FO would have to choose between Mitch or Foles and decide which QB makes our offense better? I would say Mitch.  But is the difference between the two really worth 6-8M during a year when we're already strapped for cash?  I personally don't think so.  Mitch has a slightly higher ceiling, because he's younger, but they are both back up quality QBs.

 

18 hours ago, topwop1 said:

The only guys that may be available to us this offseason who I believe to already have or may have those qualities are Watson, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson. Anyone less than one of those guys will be hard for me to get too excited for..as unrealistic as it may be I'm just being honest 

I get what your saying and I agree with you.  There are a lot of QB's available that don't really move the needle and the ones who are available are too far out of our price range. 

Let Pace/Nagy swim or sink. If they sink, then they are gone, and the next regime is already set-up with a full house in hand. A hand we have NEVER been dealt before---A MODERN hand.

1) New GM gets hired and gets to choose his own HC right from the start.
2) New HC gets hired and gets to choose his own OC/DC and staff right from the start.
3) New HC/OC gets hired and gets to choose his own QB right from the start.  

If Pace/Nagy screw this up then next regime will also start with a good draft pick and 70-80M+ in cap space to start the rebuild at a relatively fast pace. 

15 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I agree with you about Cam.    IMO, he may be most talented QB to ever play the game too.   Just shows how much more there is to that position than ability.

Cam could probably play any position in the game in addition to QB except interior line and he could probably do that too if he changed his body.    Brady on other hand could only play QB and he is goat (though Mahomes may take that from him). 

It's an interesting contrast.  Brady also probably never gets a shot to even play on vast majority of teams.   Also interesting.

Both person and situation and opportunities and opportune timing all matter so much.   'Outliers' is an interesting book that explores that topic.  

No doubt.  This is why I have always preferred pocket QB's over QB's like Cam who think they can do everything with their legs and not understand the repercussions. 

While pocket QB's may not offer the same athletic ability or versatility that other QB's like Cam does, they offer reliability at a much higher rate. And I value that. I don't care how good of a player you are if you're not available on game day when I need you. That doesn't do me any good. 

 

15 hours ago, RunningVaccs said:

Not really related to anything, but hold real still for a second, K?

Did you get him lol? 

 

6 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

Want no part of Wentz unless it's for the vet minimum. 

No one is trading for Wentz, and that contract. The Eagles are absolutely stuck. 

I'd resign Mitch before I'd take on Wentz. 

Besides, We already have a Wentz clone on our team. His name is Nick Foles. (okay, he isn't THAT bad but still...)

[topwop1]

I don't think Wentz is as bad as people are making him out to be.

At one point early in his career I thought he was going to be the next young elite QB in this league.  That SB year he was having an MVP caliber season before he got hurt and the rest was history with Foles and since Wentz has never recovered.

To top it off he had a very very bad 2020 season and his contract is pretty gross so it's hard for me to envision a team that would be willing to take him on unless like I said Philly gave back some assets in the trade.

Though let's just say for fun Eagles offered Bears Wentz + a 2nd round pick for Foles and a 5th would any of you guys make that trade?  I think I would.