The Orlando Brown Situation

[AngusMcFife]

If I were the coaching staff, I would allow Brown to compete with Stanley for the LT position in training camp. If he considers himself an LT, then go earn that position by outperforming your competition. It's kind of pathetic that he wants to be handed a starting LT position without earning it. Go ahead and take your teammates position if you think you are up for it. 

[BareYourTeeth]

 

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, Ray Reed said:

I mean, I hope you’re right. Time will tell. It’s nice to project all of these optimistic scenarios out as fans based on things other teams have done in the past and what other teams may potentially be thinking but who really knows what EDC wants/teams are really willing to offer.

We do have the luxury of kind of being in a win-win situation, though, which is nice. Either teams offer us a great haul like you say, or the offers don’t match what EDC wants and we still have a dominant, probowl RT for another year. 

Can really afford to just wait this out. Conventional thinking would suggest this needs to happen before the draft, but who knows, maybe a team doesn’t get a LT in the draft they expected to fall, or there’s a major injury in TC, and they offer us some deal impossible to pass up involving an awesome player or two or some massive overpay of future draft capital.

I would definitely err on the side of conventional thinking. I don’t think the team gives up Brown Jr in-season for anything less than two 1sts+ as it would put the team in behind in their push for a ring with Lamar. As it stands however, they’re well equipped to build a plan around an Orlando Brown Jr- less squad.
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In terms of optimistic scenarios, that’s all their really is here. As mentioned we’re in a win-win scenario. Brown Jr is being given the opportunity to explore the trade market. Based on my experience in negotiations, I’d imagine the team has given him a value that they find appropriate of his value and have given that information to him and his agent as a minimum threshold to meet. If Brown doesn’t find that value, he will be forced to return humbled and motivated that the league doesn’t view him in the way he views himself.

Conversely if he finds that value by suitors, I’m sure it’s a scenario where the agent will negotiate with teams willing to provide the Ravens minimum value allotted (likely a 1st round pick), then from there, Brown Jr and his agent will return to the Ravens with the full list of teams willing to meet his needs (compensation, playtime incentives, position requirements, etc) as well as our minimum needs; then from there the Ravens will give Orlando Brown Jr the respect of being able to choose his top 3-5 destinations (depending on level of interest) in which case they will then negotiate with those top 3 (or 5) teams, leveraging all the offers in negotiations to drum up the most competitive offer. If the final offers are close enough where any difference is negligible in value then the team likely gives Brown the opportunity to choose his final destination (such as the case with the Jaguars vs Chargers potential offers discussed), however if not close enough, than they will send him to the destination that most benefits the Ravens from a value standpoint.

It presents a situation where the Ravens can’t lose, where Brown is unlikely to lose, and where the team trading for Brown that is comfortable with what they’re getting from him and what they’re offering are also unlikely losing either.
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The Ravens trading Brown Jr and giving him “a choice of his top 3-5 teams” will only benefit the Ravens prestige as an organization that cares for their players and would only increase our chances of landing premier talents in free agency. So by trading Brown Jr vs strong arming him to stay, we win twice. The only true L we might take is with the draft talent we take to replace Brown Jr, but not from a value standpoint or prestige standpoint. Those are clear dubs the organization will receive from this circumstance.

[diamondbull424]

Tbqh. I don’t think Brown Jr is with this team past the last day of February, I’d be willing to put that at about 90% chance of him being on a new team come March 1st. It really shouldn’t take very long for this deal to go down. Especially considering COVID-19 has made all parties involved familiar with remotely communicating.

I’m sure teams have already been qualified as willing to meet the Ravens value requirements or not.

From there I’m sure it’ll take the agent roughly a week or so to weed through those teams and what type of compensation they’re willing to offer Brown Jr in terms of rough contract numbers on the other side of a trade. Of which they can iron the micro-details out once traded.

Then I’m sure the Ravens will take at most a week to negotiate with the final teams in the running before trading Brown Jr., they won’t want to give opposing teams too long to think once they hook them with the offer that most benefits the Ravens from a value standpoint, so when it comes, I’m sure it’ll come quick.

So while I doubt Brown Jr is here after another two weeks, I’m willing to give it an extra week- just in case there are more teams involved in the process than anticipated... which, while it would force us to wait a little longer, would likely mean increased compensation on the other side.
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So yeah I’ve already resigned myself to thinking less about keeping Orlando Brown Jr or not and more what can we do with the likely compensation we will receive.

NFL teams have proven time and again recently that they really don’t value 1st round picks as much as fans might think. I thought there was no way that Khalil Mack would go for two 1sts; he went for two 1sts, a 3rd, and a 6th. I thought Jalen Ramsey considering the leverage opposing teams would have over the Jags would go for two 1sts; he went for two 1sts and a 4th. Now most will point to both Ramsey and Mack to being elite and having clear positional value, well then the Jamal Adams deal happened where the Jets received two 1st round picks, a starting safety, and improved from a 4th round pick to a 3rd round pick. So while Brown Jr likely isn’t getting Laremy Tunsil type of value, let’s not forget that Tunsil largely went for two 1sts and a 2nd. The player swaps and draft picks on the other side largely cancel each other out.

So considering all of that info, Brown Jr going for pick 13 or pick 25 and 45 would, in theory, be somewhat of a bargain for an opposing team based off of recent value teams have acquired for young PB level talents.

Even if the argument is made that Brown Jr doesn’t possess elite ability/upside (given that he just gave up 0 sacks at LT, I’m not sure how much that matters), his positional value plus PB talent still easily trumps that of an elite box safety in value, hypothetically speaking.

So truly, I don’t think anyone should be shocked if as opposed to the deals we’ve been considering, we receive two 1st round picks and some change for Brown Jr, considering precedent.

Chargers: Brown Jr
Ravens: 2021 #13, 2022 1st

OR

Jaguars: 2021 #25, 2021 #33, and 2022 2nd

OR

Eagles: 2021 #6 and 2022 2nd
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I think these would be the values that should be on the more “hopeful” side of things, the ones that we’re currently discussing- considering precedent- are actually very “safe” deals that I feel very confident that we’ll receive for Brown Jr- at minimum.

Edited February 10, 2021 by diamondbull424

[Ray Reed]

My absolute ideal dream scenario (even though i’m on the more pessimistic side of this trade happening/us getting awesome value for it) would probably be:

•Orlando for pick 13 from the Chargers straight up

• Trade 13 + 27 for pick 6/7 

•Draft Kyle Pitts or Jamar Chase (one of them will be there at that point...most likely Pitts)

• Still have the rest of our normal 2-7th rounders to address OL/S/OLB

[SalvadorsDeli]

I wonder if there's a way to use Brown to arrange a tag and trade deal for Golladay or Robinson. Only way we'd make a deal is if we also get draft capital that could go towards helping reload at OL - a 2nd or 3rd rounder I would think - on the idea that they might just lose those guys for free if not for us making a trade. But we would also only make a deal like that if a.) we were confident we could negotiate an extension with Gollday/Robinson and thus not have them playing on the franchise tag cap number and b.) we really want one of those guys but don't trust that we can win an open bidding war in FA for them. Because you'd obviously prefer to sign them outright in FA and then ALSO be able to trade Brown separately for a huge haul. 

But if, say, a 2nd rounder + Gallup, M. Williams, or Chark is a decent enough haul, then it stands to reason a 3rd rounder + Golladay or Robinson would be a good deal for us too. Too many different factors that need to go right in order for it to be workable, so I doubt it could materialize. But some food for thought.

Edited February 11, 2021 by SalvadorsDeli

[diamondbull424]

All I know is Orlando Brown Jr being the key trade needed to obtain one of my two draft crushes of DeVonta Smith or Kyle Pitts sounds like some draft voodoo blood sacrifice type stuff.

[BareYourTeeth]

11 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

All I know is Orlando Brown Jr being the key trade needed to obtain one of my two draft crushes of DeVonta Smith or Kyle Pitts sounds like some draft voodoo blood sacrifice type stuff.

Yeah I want #13 from the Chargers so we can at least have a shot at Pitts.

[santiagomn8]

I think we get 2 1st without a doubt that a Pro Bowl Left Tackle who is 24 that still has an year on his rookie contract. Unless the 1st is really high like top 10 then maybe you add a second this year or next year. You have to just look at it very simply if you drafted a pro bowl left tackle in the first round you consider that a slam dunk 1st round pick so now you have the chance to get a sure thing you have to get more than 1st

[SalvadorsDeli]

42 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

All I know is Orlando Brown Jr being the key trade needed to obtain one of my two draft crushes of DeVonta Smith or Kyle Pitts sounds like some draft voodoo blood sacrifice type stuff.

Maybe not the right thread for it (or I guess maybe it is since it all comes back to trading Brown) but do you see Pitts primarily as a WR or a TE in a world where he was somehow a Raven? 

[DreamKid]

44 minutes ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

Maybe not the right thread for it (or I guess maybe it is since it all comes back to trading Brown) but do you see Pitts primarily as a WR or a TE in a world where he was somehow a Raven? 

I think most view him as a Darren Waller type, sans off field red flags and with potentially more upside(Won't turn 21 until October). So the lines are blurred. Most great receiving Tight Ends are essentially giant SWRs at this point anyway, and that's at the minimum. The greats like Gronkowski, Kelce, Kittle etc could and often did/do line up across all the WR positions at times. And certainly within our offense he'd do the same. We lined Hurst and Andrews up outside a fair amount, especially during the 2019 season. We'd probably see the return of a lot of those looks, and more even that'd suit a talent such as Pitts.

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

Maybe not the right thread for it (or I guess maybe it is since it all comes back to trading Brown) but do you see Pitts primarily as a WR or a TE in a world where he was somehow a Raven? 

My cop out answer is both.

I look at it moreso as a question of what roles in our 2019 and 2020 offenses could Pitts have inserted into. In 2019 he replaces Hayden Hurst in those flex, slot, and perhaps even FB alignments. In 2020 he would take Boykin and Bryant’s alignments where he can play as both x and z receiver on the formation.

All in all Florida lined Pitts up out wide where he beat future starting NFL corners like Jaycee Horn (tight coverage), Roger McCreary, Israel Mukuamu (roasted him), and Tyson Campbell (good coverage).

Georgia lined him up in the slot/flex where he’s beaten future NFL corners/safeties like Derek Stingley Jr, Grant Delpit, Richard LeCounte, Leon O’Neil Jr, Tyrique Stevenson, Kelvin Joseph, and Brandin Echols.

Inline no LB/S has any chance at guarding him obviously. I think he’s most dangerous lined up as a flex/slot option as it gives him more space to work with to separate from defenders with length/hand fighting if it’s a DB or speed if its a LB.

So I think his best matchups would come in a more “tight end” centric role. However more than any NFL TE with the exception of Darren Waller, he’s probably the best outside WR threat at TE the NFL has ever seen.

There are some route running techniques that I believe he could still improve on to be more effective lined up out wide, but outside of guys like Horn and Campbell, two 1st round level lengthy corners... Pitts has consistently dominated his matchups when lined up outside. Even with those guys, Pitts insane length and a catch radius only matched by prospects like Megatron, Fitz, and Randy Moss... he’s a difficult cover option for even the top corners at the collegiate level.

So yeah, Tight Receiver?

[DreamKid]

I almost think DeVonta Smith would be more likely to fall than Kyle Pitts though. Seems like teams could make a bigger deal than needed out of his weight and maybe favor Waddle's speed, similar to how Ruggs went before Lamb and Jeudy last year. 

It'll be funny if we land a Top 15 pick in this draft for Orlando and are sitting there hoping for a WR to fall, as is tradition on draft night for us, while last year Ceedee Lamb could be had for the 18th pick and Justin Jefferson for the 22nd.

Beyond WR, I don't think there's any other fun looming BPA fish for us to net. So if the Big 4 all went before this theoretical OBJ pick we'll have, then I think we'd be looking at dipping into the Tier 2 of receivers with Rashod Bateman leading the charge or grabbing whatever's left of the Tier 1 OL options to start rebuilding there.

It's hard to have a read on how the FO will feel about guys like Kwity Paye, Christian Barmore, Gregory Rousseau, or even a guy like Micah Parsons who has some rumored character flags that could affect his stock. Or even what range those guys will be selected in the first place. 

[drd23]

5 hours ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

I wonder if there's a way to use Brown to arrange a tag and trade deal for Golladay or Robinson.

He may be leaving us high and dry, but even then I'm not sure I would wish being stuck on the Lions on him

[DreamKid]

11 minutes ago, drd23 said:

He may be leaving us high and dry, but even then I'm not sure I would wish being stuck on the Lions on him

They've already sipped from the Ravens RT fountain with Rick Wagner. Would be interesting to see them go back for seconds. 

Not sure the Bears are all that much better either. Once Rodgers leaves it's really looking like a wasteland in the NFCN.