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Official 2022 QB Thread


NYRaider

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3 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

See the Ole Miss game, against arguably the best competition he played in his college career, that was rough.  Got sacked 7 times and some were absolutely his fault, threw 3 INTs and only average 2.6 yards per rush.

The issue I have with the Ole Miss game is that he had Liberty's OL, Liberty's WR core, and Liberty's RB core. It's not an apples to apples comparison to see how a guy like Pickett or Corral did vs high level competition vs how Willis did as his supporting cast was significantly worse than his QB peers. 

3 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Trey Lance is 4" taller than Willis, just as thick and powerful and has a better arm I would say and obviously is more accurate.  Also did not play all but one season of college football because of that COVID year.  Willis can make the wow rolling and throwing back against his body long downfield but no way he is as good of a prospect as Trey Lance.

He is taller. Outside of that, I don't agree he has a better arm. Willis has an absolute cannon. Both are excellent in that aspect. Willis is a better athlete and bigger threat running the ball. Lance had such a limited sample size against FCS competition. 

3 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

But sure late 1st round a team could take a gamble on him that is QB needy.  Not sure he is this Pittsburgh guy everyone talks about, I think they take Pickett there who is more ready now than Willis is to play right now.  Willis would be exciting for them to have but not sure he would win games for them, who knows.  Clearly in terms of character hype that video of Willis giving something to a needy man on the street alone could make him a 1st round pick.  That is all people were talking about was that random shot video, should give that dude a few thousand for posting that one considering the attention it has got.  

We will have to wait and see come draft day I suppose, but I think he goes much higher than many on here are expecting.

3 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Speaking of QBs, are the Saints going to take a QB?  Corral makes sense in that offense but are they going to rid of Hill or Winston?  Hill is signed till 2025 and gets what around $10 mil a year, that is a lot of money for a dude not sure he is even a consistent starter, especially if Sean Payton is not the OC.  

That certainly is the million dollar question right now for Saints fans. I liked what I saw from Winston last season, but it was such a limited sample size, I don't think I want to put all my eggs in that basket this season. Especially with Payton gone as our system might not be able to mask his flaws as well in the coming seasons.

Drafting a QB certainly is the most cap friendly option for us given our cap situation. We also aren't in a spot to have first choice of the available QB's in the draft with us picking at #18. I could see Corral as an option, but I do have fears about his physical playstyle leading to injuries in the NFL with his smaller frame. If Willis/Pickett were within reach on draft day to trade up a few spots if needed, I'd prefer them over Corral. 

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Normally, you do not want to take a player with a low floor in the 1st round but Qbs are different.  If they are not bold in college they will not be bold in the NFL.  Mike Tomlin once said that he would rather tell a QB to Whoa then Giddyup.  You do not want to make the mistakes that Chicago and Cleveland made with going with the safe pick because that leads to Mitch Trubisky.

Secondly, velocity when driving the ball in the middle of the field or to deep outs is critical. It's the rare outlier with a below-average arm who can succeed in the NFL vs faster players in condensed space. Velocity will cover up some inexperience at reading defenses.

Thirdly, competitiveness matters. You don't want a guy who will Kirk Cousins a checkdown when the game is on the line and you need a 1st down, just because that's what he's trained to do.

All of that should make Willis QB #1.  He has a lot of issues with accuracy and needs a year behind a decent QB to learn and change his mechanics.  I just hope the Steeles do not take him.

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Man, Ridder really is built like the NFL QB you want.  Strong arm, crazy good speed, prototype measurables.

If only he was better at, you know, playing QB.

But he's looking more and more like the next best thing in this class just based on upside IMO.  He's a big project, but so are Willis and Corrall.

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2 hours ago, tyler735 said:

Nobody is saying there isn't work to do with Willis, but he has an elite set of tools very few QB's have had. If a guy like Lance can go 3rd overall in last years class. I see no reason Willis can't do similar this year and go top 5/top 10 assuming he continues to have a great offseason like he has already shown at the Senior Bowl and Combine. Really just his Pro Day workout as the last obstacle.

First off, I have to give you credit for at least doing the legwork for finding some games where you can see Willis for what he can be.  Nobody here is denying his upside, I don't think even the most critical evaluations would argue otherwise.  But there's just too much risk involved with taking a guy like Willis in the top 10.  He's probably going to be QB1 when it's all said and done because of his upside, but you've got to be realistic in the sense that he's probably more likely to flame out then he is to be an elite QB.  If there's a QB to gamble on, he's probably the guy to gamble on.

And I'm not sure using the whole "Trey Lance went 3rd overall" argument really holds water.  We're not saying can Willis go high, we're asking should he?  Trey Lance was overdrafted, and the price the 49ers paid to ensure they got him was astronomical.  Was it worth it?  That remains to be seen, but that was a price that we've never seen an NFL team pay for a non-top 2 QB.  It was more expensive then when the Jets traded up for Sam Darnold, and we saw how that one turned out.

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1 hour ago, Ozzy said:

See the Ole Miss game, against arguably the best competition he played in his college career, that was rough.  Got sacked 7 times and some were absolutely his fault, threw 3 INTs and only average 2.6 yards per rush.

And I'm relatively comfortable "writing it off" as a LoC issue.  The teammates that he's playing with at Liberty are probably scout team fodder for Ole Miss, so his struggles against Ole Miss aren't terribly surprising.  But I would have thought that he would have been more consistent against similar competition.

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2 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Speaking of QBs, are the Saints going to take a QB?  Corral makes sense in that offense but are they going to rid of Hill or Winston?  Hill is signed till 2025 and gets what around $10 mil a year, that is a lot of money for a dude not sure he is even a consistent starter, especially if Sean Payton is not the OC.  

I'd put money on them rolling Winston/Hill for 2022, and see what QB falls to them on Day 2 or early Day 3.

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2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

 Trey Lance was overdrafted

No, he wasn’t. This is just your opinion and way of looking at things. Lance’s skillset and upside was WELL worth a Top 5 draft pick. You seem to look at project QB’s differently and value them differently, which is fine and your opinion, but you are kind of speaking your view as fact. 

Edited by BayRaider
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4 hours ago, tyler735 said:

Disagree, could easily see Mac Jones having a ceiling of a guy like Matt Ryan or Philip Rivers. Maybe never elite but can be a great QB.

We’ll see. I think Josh McDaniels can make a paperbag look like a great QB. Intrigued to see Mac’s sophomore year without him. 

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33 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

We’ll see. I think Josh McDaniels can make a paperbag look like a great QB. Intrigued to see Mac’s sophomore year without him. 

Yeah he's definitely a good coach, but I'm also curious to see how Mac Jones does with some legit talent at WR assuming the Patriots look to add some with all the talented options in free agency/draft this year.

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35 minutes ago, jebrick said:

I think Mac Jones is close to his ceiling. He was the safe pick last year.  High Floor, low ceiling.  Jones is safer than any QB in this draft but Willis would/should be drafted higher.

Yeah I don’t get why people don’t understand this…

1) Mac always had the highest floor (maybe tied with Lawrence) and lowest ceiling. He is likely already at that ceiling. 

2) Mac was by farrrr the most pro ready. 
 

I still don’t have much doubts he’ll be the 5th best QB of the class. 

Edited by BayRaider
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Predictively where I’m at:

 

- Willis 1st QB off the board, Corral and Pickett 2 and 3 in some order. All in the top 15.

 

- Howell and Ridder next in some order, but it’s questionable whether one or both will sneak into R1 or go early 2nd.

 

- Strong will go late 2nd/early 3rd, in the same ballpark as Trask/Mills/Mond last year 


- Zappe will be the first day 3 QB

 

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On 3/4/2022 at 1:53 PM, tyler735 said:

Yeah he's definitely a good coach, but I'm also curious to see how Mac Jones does with some legit talent at WR assuming the Patriots look to add some with all the talented options in free agency/draft this year.

Yeah. 

I though Mac over-achieved with what he had to work with. 

Give the guy some legitimate receiving options and he probably continues to surprise.

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