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Will the Chiefs miss the playoffs?


notthatbluestuff

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I think this thread shows is that NFL fans are too reactionary. 
 

The Chiefs defense is legitimately bad. Probably bottom 5 in the league. 
 

The Chiefs offense is still top tier but not as invincible as in 2018-2020. This is because of a combo of bad WR depth and teams realizing that if you play Two-High it severely limits the explosive plays. The Chiefs haven’t done a great job at adjusting to this and this is leading to a lot of turnovers. 

If I was a betting man my guess is the Chiefs go 10-7 and end up with a 6 or 7 seed. The defense is going to prevent them from being on the same level as the top tier AFC teams. 
 

They should probably move on from Spags after this year and focus heavily on defense in the draft. They could be the class of the AFC again as early as 2023 but they have to do everything right. 

Edited by Bolts223
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I don't think they make the playoffs. Division is too tough, right now they're behind 2 teams, 1 of which who has already beaten them at home and the other team ahead of them isn't exactly a slouch either.

The schedule isn't exactly light either.

Regardless of whether they make the playoffs or not, they could easily be a first round out.

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26 minutes ago, Bolts223 said:

I think this thread shows is that NFL fans are too reactionary. 
 

The Chiefs defense is legitimately bad. Probably bottom 5 in the league. 
 

The Chiefs offense is still top tier but not as invincible as in 2018-2020. This is because of a combo of bad WR depth and teams realizing that if you play Two-High it severely limits the explosive plays. The Chiefs haven’t done a great job at adjusting to this and this is leading to a lot of turnovers. 

If I was a betting man my guess is the Chiefs go 10-7 and end up with a 6 or 7 seed. The defense is going to prevent them from being on the same level as the top tier AFC teams. 
 

They should probably move on from Spags after this year and focus heavily on defense in the draft. They could be the class of the AFC again as early as 2023 but they have to do everything right. 

These are all correct takes.

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2 hours ago, Bolts223 said:

I think this thread shows is that NFL fans are too reactionary. 

Yeah I'm not going to write off Mahomes/Hill/Kelcee under any circumstances. Obviously being 3-4 isn't ideal but their losses have comes against the Ravens (by 1), the Chargers (by 6, late), the Bills, and the Titans. 4 of the best teams in the NFL and two of them could've easily been wins if one ball bounced their way.

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There is one more thing I would like to add.

 

Brady and the Patriots have really screwed with people’s perception of what normal is. 
 

I think a lot of people expected the Chiefs to basically replace the Patriots and be a lock to at least be in the AFC Championship Game every year for the next decade-plus. 
 

The reality is, what the Patriots did over an 18-year span will almost certainly never be replicated again in the salary-cap era of football. Teams will have amazing 3-5 year runs like the 2012-2015 Broncos, 2012-2014 Seahawks, 2018-2020 Chiefs, etc. But their dominance will eventually end when players need to be paid, coaches get poached and the other 31 teams figure out how to scheme more effectively against them. 

 

The Chiefs will probably always be a playoff team for as long as Mahomes/Reid are there, but there will be years like this one where the roster deficiencies are too much to overcome to make them legit SB contenders. 

 

 

Edited by Bolts223
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On 10/24/2021 at 6:28 PM, Matts4313 said:

When was the last time a team had a MVP QB and wasnt consistently good? As a rule of thumb, thats what happens.... unless you go through a thing like the Saints with a few years of historically horrific defense. 

Same for Dolphins. Marino wins 1984 MVP, then they miss the playoffs in 1986, 1987, 1988, and 1989. Scoring 45 pts in a game and still losing, GTFO horrific defense. 

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This next month will decide everything. They have the Giants, Packers, at Raiders, and Cowboys. If they go (1-3) heading into their BYE at (4-7) then they have to run the table and go (6-0) the rest of the way to get to (10-7) just to have a shot at the 7th seed. So imo if they entire their BYE at (4-7) they are done and its looking towards the offseason for them. 

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With the way theyre playing now its highly doubtful.

if Mahomes can figure out how to step into a pocket and make a play with regularity that would be the first step. His inability to do so really limits the offense, since all a team needs to do is throw a 4 man rush and drop everybody back into coverage to fluster him. 

I dont think This defense is salvageable this season though, too many tent deficiency issues. The young LB corp has potential though. 

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On 10/25/2021 at 8:14 PM, FinSting said:

Same for Dolphins. Marino wins 1984 MVP, then they miss the playoffs in 1986, 1987, 1988, and 1989. Scoring 45 pts in a game and still losing, GTFO horrific defense. 

They probably should’ve gotten rid of shula tbh. The game had past him by

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On 10/25/2021 at 8:10 PM, Bolts223 said:

Brady and the Patriots have really screwed with people’s perception of what normal is. 
 

I think a lot of people expected the Chiefs to basically replace the Patriots and be a lock to at least be in the AFC Championship Game every year for the next decade-plus. 

No kidding. That's why I always howl at detractors of Barry Switzer. That type somehow believes that the Cowboys were supposed to nonchalantly march to one title after another. Meanwhile I'd love to have seen the scenario with Jimmy Johnson remaining as Cowboys coach. I'm not sure they win even one more title, let alone more than one. Johnson won a grand total of one championship with the Canes despite being the best team in the country every season from 1985 through 1988. He lost two bowl games for the championship while favored by a touchdown or more.

This is a hellish scenario the Chiefs are facing, two seasons removed from the title. I've emphasized many times that only George Halas, Barry Switzer and Bill Belichick have managed to regain the championship one season after being dethroned. It is a natural downer mode even though fans somehow view it the other way. The Chiefs have compounded situational difficulty because they lost the Super Bowl last season. Recently that has become a funk. For example, last week the Titans were a home underdog that had won its most recent game outright as home underdog. That is historically an awful spot for the home underdog yet the lethargic Chiefs made Tennessee look like world beater.

Kansas City is allowing a staggering 8.6 YPA, third worst in the league. Consequently the YPPA Differential is -1.1, which is near the bottom of the league. The NFL is all about passing and stopping the pass. The Chiefs have declined in both. Last season they allowed 7.1 YPA. Buffalo right now is a terrific 5.7 YPA, meaning that on the average pass play the Bills allow 3 fewer yards than the Chiefs.

Still, I'd be shocked if they miss the playoffs. It's such an imbalanced league with the premier quarterbacks able to rescue one tight game after another. They would have to lose 4 more times to miss the playoffs and even 9-8 might do it.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 10/25/2021 at 4:49 PM, Bolts223 said:

I think this thread shows is that NFL fans are too reactionary. 

This checks out. 

This thread was created after the loss to Buffalo when they were 2-3 and the Chiefs are 4-1 since then with a 6-4 record.

Note to FF.......stop being prisoners of the moment.

Sure, they could still fall back,just like every other team, but there's alot of football left and 6-4 is closer to what most of us saw KC being at this point.

Alot of these takes seemed to be based more on reactionary than reality.

Edited by JAF-N72EX
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