Way too early 2022 offseason thoughts

[jebrick]

7 minutes ago, 43M said:

Saw Bucky Brooks draft where he has us drafting edge rusher in the first round.

I dont whether to call him an idiot or worry that we might do something that stupid.

If it were Jermaine Johnson I would say he is a top 10 edge player, but is suspect it was Karlaftis, who people rated too high and are trying to justify.

[bigben07MVP]

2 hours ago, jebrick said:

If it were Jermaine Johnson I would say he is a top 10 edge player, but is suspect it was Karlaftis, who people rated too high and are trying to justify.

EDGE clearly isn’t a need but Jermaine Johnson is that special of a player that I’d be ok with it. He’s the best edge pass rusher I’ve seen at FSU including Brian Burns. He’s the total package as well and a great run defender.

[warfelg]

Ok so three different Mocks here.  One is what I think Colbert would be likely to do.  The other is what I would do.

Very Colbert like draft

This is based on the idea of not moving in picks we would normally move in.  There is one later on like we would tend to do at times basically trying to move into a round without giving up that pick.

1-20 :: Malik Willis QB Liberty.  We've heard so much of that smoke and if he's there it's easy to see him as the pick.

2-52 :: Christian Harris LB Alabama.  Raw at LB but possesses all the skill you want at the spot.

3-84 :: Alec Lindstrom OC Boston College. A true tactician.  Allows Green to move to LG, Dodson back to RG, and matches the IOL to better spots.

TRADE :: Steelers out 2023 4th, 2024 6th.  Tampa Bay out R4P132

4-132 :: Khalil Shakir WR Boise State.  He's got physical ability as well as the mental ability.  Not a big name on the draft board, but he's a skillset that fits well.

4-138 :: Tariq Castro-Fields CB Penn State.  Average height and weight but exceptional length (Rumored 35" arms).  Can play zone or man.

7-223 :: Nasir Greer S Wake Forest.

7-239 :: Connor Heyward RB/FB Michigan State.

War's Mock PFN Mock

So despite the movement I tried to stay somewhat realistic.  This is based on the idea that we would just add some parts via FA and some via the draft.  There's a early move but for the most part it stays authentic to what we would do.

1-20 :: TRADE :: Steelers out R1P20, Tampa Bay out R1P27, R2P60

1-27 :: Tyler Linderbaum C Iowa.  Fantastic value at this point of the draft.

2-52 :: Desmond Ridder QB Cincinnati.  I know a lot was made of his playoff performance but the guy has a good skillset to go from.  He's mobile but not a "runner".  

2-60 :: Kyler Gordon CB Washington.  Athletic Freak.  But that's not all he is.  Reminds me of Byron Jones coming out of UConn.

3-84 :: TRADE :: Steelers out R3P84, Kansas City out R3P84, R4P134

3-94 :: Skyy Moore WR Western Michigan.  In a way I think we are looking at a DJ replacement in Moore.  But potentially better.  I really like the skillset he brings and can push Claypool inside.

4-134 :: John Ridgeway DT Arkansas.  Starting at a small school Ridgeway showed to be a man among boys.  Going to the SEC he was thought to have growing pains, but managed to keep on impressing. He's also a big boy.

4-138 :: Calvin Austin III WR Memphis.  Don't let his 5'7" stature fool you.  This kid has it.  Massive vertical, strong hands, but most importantly has oh shiz speed with and without the ball.  He is who Canada wishes Ray Ray was.

7-223 :: Kana'i Mauga LB USC :: This seems to be the LB that Flores excels at coaching.  Very toolsy, very athletic, flashes.  But he's very inconsistent.  Will blow up a play then be blown up on a play.

7-239 :: Connor Heyward RB Michigan State.  If it makes the big guy happy then do it.

War's Mock PFF Mock

So I decided to have fun with this one and go completely out of the norm for us.  Move into having 1 picks in 1 round.  Operate with the thought that the OL and DL would be fixed via FA (Signing guys like Hicks, Scherff).  THinking that way freed me up to do more.

1-20 :: Drake London WR USC.  We're going to need some help at WR, and Drake is a guy I think will be gone by our pick.  Huge 6'5" player, amazing body control, played basketball as well.  Has speed to win deep and high points the ball really well.

TRADE: Steelers out R2P52, R1 2023 and Cowboys out R1P24

1-24 :: Malik Willis QB Liberty.  With what's about to come up, we're completely revamping the offense.  It's going to be about speed and ability to stretch the field in both ways.  Malik Willis at QB would be a huge part of making that all work.

TRADE: Steelers out Chase Claypool and Colts out R2P48

2-48 :: Brandon Smith LB Penn State.  The pick of London makes Claypool expendable.  I think 2021 exposed Claypool's flaws, and London is a better version.  Smith needs to clean up the missed tackles issue, but if he can be a player.

3-84 :: Skyy Moore WR Western Michigan.  Moore is going to be a good one.  Clean releases, good shiftiness, has enough speed.  More importantly his hands are not questions.

4-138 :: Tariq Woolen CB UTSA.  I think post combine and workouts he's gonna be a 2nd rounder, but here here right now.  Woolen is a converted WR and has the ability to have a Richard Sherman like career.

6-207 :: Ryan Van Demark OL UConn.  He's a physical specimen but needs some training on the line.

7-221 :: Luke Fortner OC Kentucky.  He held his own in a tough SEC.  He's tall for a center (6'6") but his potential to be IOL flexible is a good option at this point.

7-237 :: Connor Heyward H-Back Michigan State.  A position flexible player who can bring ST snaps is never a bad risk at this point, even if he's only drafted because of who his brother is.

 

[warfelg]

15 hours ago, jebrick said:

I feel my intelligence being sucked out of my head after watching NFL Live with Kiper et al.  After talking about how  Pickett is not a special QB having him drafted at #11.  Then they get to the Steelers and Kiper has them taking Willis and then the dumbness just flowed as they went on and on about giving him 2 years to develop, ect.  Then the king Idiot, Dan Orlovsky, went on to say the Steeler should then spend a 2nd and a 3rd on Jimmy G to give Willis 2-3 years. 

i hear better plans on these websites then that crap.

Dan's better than that.  Willing to bet that was a producer pushed thing.

15 hours ago, 43M said:

Saw Bucky Brooks draft where he has us drafting edge rusher in the first round.

I dont whether to call him an idiot or worry that we might do something that stupid.

Brooks is the worst and has had vendetta against us for Tomlin not being more outspoken about racial issues, not extending Bell, and just too many other silly things where he ended up on the wrong side of it for a while.  I wouldn't put too much in his takes at all.

 

[jebrick]

I am going to throw a quote on here from another board:

Quote

I think this whole discussion: whether to draft a QB or build team first, how to avoid becoming the Browns, etc. boils down to: almost EVERYONE doesn't know the first thing about which QB to choose. You have experts in the field who are looking for safe, polished choices with some perceived upside, instead of wild horses with immense talent who have the balls to succeed and make great throws in tough situations but who need to be tamed.

As Mike Tomlin so aptly put it: I'd rather to tell a guy, 'Whoa' than "Giddyup". This is especially true with QB prospects. They have to be bold in college or there's next to no chance they'll suddenly become bold in the NFL.

Secondly, velocity when driving the ball in the middle of the field or to deep outs is critical. It's the rare outlier with a below-average arm who can succeed in the NFL vs faster players in condensed space. Velocity will cover up some inexperience at reading defenses.

Thirdly, competitiveness matters. You don't want a guy who will Kirk Cousins a checkdown when the game is on the line and you need a 1sr down, just because that's what he's trained to do.

If a guy doesn't jump off the tape from time to time, chances are he's not an elite QB. That's why for QB in particular, I watch a highlight reel before I watch game film. With Josh Rosen, I saw a bunch of floated balls in the intermediate range to wide open receivers. With Patrick Mahomes, I saw 3-4 throws in the first 5 clips that were all "Oh, no, no. no... holy crap, what a throw!" If you see a QB who not only is bold but has the arm to cash the checks his confidence writes, you have a guy. To go back to my original point, the Cleveland Browns and Chicago Bears saw that guy's tape and either passed on him––despite their desperation for a franchise QB––or, worse... chose Mitch Trubisky, perceived as a "safer" pick.

Most of the time when you're drafting early in the first round, you want a sure thing. You don't want to bust on a guy with potential but a low floor. That's fine for a second-round pick, perhaps, but you'll end up in the graveyard if you miss on a couple of 1st rounders in a 5-year span.

However, making the safe choice in Round 1 does NOT apply to QBs. You have to make the boldest choice or skip it altogether. You have to be completely bonkers for a guy at QB to pick him. If you have the slightest bit of, 'well, I'm not sure how great he can be', forget it. On the flip side, you have to be 100% willing to bail on him either by bringing in competition later or ditching him altogether and starting over if that's the right call.

I wouldn't pick Malik Willis over the 2023 or 2024 class, but I will say that picking almost any other QB in this class in Round 1 would be an even worse mistake. At least he has arm velocity and can make some highlight plays with his legs. So, perhaps he's the least bad bad choice?

 

[cjfollett]

3 hours ago, warfelg said:

War's Mock PFN Mock

This is the best of the three, IMO (not that you asked). I really like trading down out of #20 for the extra pick to then get an okay prospect at QB without many expectations or cost. I'm sure about the 2nd trade, but overall this is the best mock (assuming you pick up another UFA to compete with Rudolph).

The other two mocks include Willis as a 1st rounder, and I just think picking him up before the 2nd round will come with too many expectations. His floor is just so low, and there will be pressure to play him his rookie year if the Steelers start out like 2-5/1-6. 

[Dcash4]

3 hours ago, jebrick said:

I am going to throw a quote on here from another board:

 

Similar thought to what I was listening to Mays and Tice talk about on the Athletic Football pod (which, I definitely recommend). They were talking about qualities in QB's in a league that has had the floor of the position lifted, but also has seen the ceiling smashed and raised an incredible level. 

The one thing they said every really good QB has is that they all possess a super power. Rodgers has just stupid accuracy, Mahomes has an other worldly arm and can be a magician, Allen has a cannon and the physicals, Borrow is a next level processor, etc. 

"Good" college Qb's don't survive the next level without something that sets them apart. Just because you are a capable pocket passer who sifts through progressions doesn't mean jack in the league. There is a desperate need to create off script and create plays that others can't/won't make -- if they don't show that they have that ability, you should scratch that person off your list. 

Another interesting thing they talked about was how the Shanahan offense has never created a star QB. The system is so successful, but so planned that it doesn't grow next level NFL guys. Rodgers and Stafford being the two prime examples right now of guys who grew up on their own and then were adopted into Shanahan and look at the results. The biggest example was in the Super Bowl when Stafford hit the no look to Kupp - That's not the Shanahan read. He went A: no, B: no....and the C would have been the check down. But Stafford kicks down the wall and creates his own door to D and it's probably the reason they wont the super bowl. Goff doesn't make that play. Cousins doesn't either. Nor does Jimmy G. You want a next level QB? They need to see what's not spelled out for them. 

The reason I mention this is as we look for our next QB -- those two points are something I really want to stress when I look at guys: 1) someone with a super power and 2) guys who can think for themselves at some level

[C$!]

7 hours ago, warfelg said:

Dan's better than that.  Willing to bet that was a producer pushed thing.

Brooks is the worst and has had vendetta against us for Tomlin not being more outspoken about racial issues, not extending Bell, and just too many other silly things where he ended up on the wrong side of it for a while.  I wouldn't put too much in his takes at all.

 

Brooks has a lot of axe's to grind it seems. It was really evident during the Antonio Brown saga. I find myself rolling my eyes a lot when he gives his opinions.

[DR43]

How would you all feel about a QB in round 2?  Would any be worth taking at #52?

[43M]

God I really hope Willis gets drafted top 10.

[SteelersFan2333]

1 hour ago, 43M said:

God I really hope Willis gets drafted top 10.

Just please dear Lord don’t be us moving up to grab him in the top 10 🙏 

[43M]

Colbert said at the combine interview that the Steelers have two capable NFL QBs in Rudolph and Haskins.

I dont put much stock into media soundbytes and alot of these questions that have pre scripted answers....but if they actually believe that even a little, we are in big trouble.

[43M]

Also didnt sound like they were in a rush to pick a GM.    

[CKSteeler]

If the Steelers draft Willis after Colbert got in front of a mic and said accuracy is the most important thing for a QB prospect, I'm going to laugh and laugh...

[August4th]