The New QB Thread: Who will be the Raiders QB next season?

[agarcia34]

Would be a massive win for Ziegler and Josh to pull this trade off and not have to give up pick 7. You can really start to put things together if they’re able to keep that pick. 
 

2nd round pick this year and nexts years second would be one hell of a trade tbh 

Edited February 5, 2023 by agarcia34

[big_palooka]

 

Who are the 3 if Brady was a contingency plan?

[Chali21]

1 hour ago, big_palooka said:

 

Who are the 3 if Brady was a contingency plan?

Rodgers Jimmy G and Probably Mac Jones. 

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, agarcia34 said:

2nd round pick this year and nexts years second would be one hell of a trade tbh 

That would be a really, really bad trade for Green Bay.  Remember, it'd cost the Packers more in terms of money on the salary cap to trade Aaron Rodgers than it would to play him.

[Heart of Oak]

On 2/3/2023 at 8:10 PM, big_palooka said:

I agree but Stroud feel so meh.... There is just nothing special to his game. And maybe that's a good thing, I don't know. 

This QB class feels weightless. Don't see a wow prospect that makes me pound the table. 

If we go Rodgers which all the talking heads are now indicating it needs to be under the agreement that...

• He is bought in for at least three years - no talk of retirement at end of year 1
• The draft pick compensation is palatable
• We find a way to make that contract easy to swallow (or at least easier)

[Nightmare]

1 hour ago, big_palooka said:

 

Who are the 3 if Brady was a contingency plan?

 

5 minutes ago, Chali21 said:

Rodgers Jimmy G and Probably Mac Jones. 

I’m not sure if they’d have even thought Rodgers was an option up until this past week or so.

I’d agree with Garoppolo and Jones as two of them. Possibly Brissett as a third, as un-exciting as that might be?

[Geezy]

2 hours ago, agarcia34 said:

Would be a massive win for Ziegler and Josh to pull this trade off and not have to give up pick 7. You can really start to put things together if they’re able to keep that pick. 
 

2nd round pick this year and nexts years second would be one hell of a trade tbh 

Is even be down for a pick swap, but yea  keepin 7 would be a huge W 

[RaidersAreOne]

Do not give up #7.

[agarcia34]

36 minutes ago, Geezy said:

Is even be down for a pick swap, but yea  keepin 7 would be a huge W 

Pick swap would be something to do as well. Actually didn’t think about that until now. Would make sense for the Raiders saves money on the cap and if a trade happened for Rodgers and they keep 7 I think they would look to trade down at 7 anyways. 

[agarcia34]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

That would be a really, really bad trade for Green Bay.  Remember, it'd cost the Packers more in terms of money on the salary cap to trade Aaron Rodgers than it would to play him.

Obviously not an ideal trade package if you’re the Packers. 
 

Swap first round picks/2nd and Waller. Think that would be better. Could also see Renfrow in a deal and not Waller. 

Edited February 5, 2023 by agarcia34

[CWood21]

4 minutes ago, agarcia34 said:

Obviously not an ideal trade package if you’re the Packers. 
 

Swap first round picks/2nd and Waller. Think that would be better. Could also see Renfrow in a deal and not Waller. 

Definitely feels like the Waller part has come and gone.  Not to mention, the Raiders probably would prefer to keep as many of their offensive weapons for Aaron Rodgers even if they know Randall Cobb is coming.  A pick swap of FPRs is worth a mid-2nd, so you're effectively saying 2 SRPs is Rodgers' trade value, which doesn't seem accurate.

[jimkelly02]

1 hour ago, Heart of Oak said:

If we go Rodgers which all the talking heads are now indicating it needs to be under the agreement that...

• He is bought in for at least three years - no talk of retirement at end of year 1
• The draft pick compensation is palatable
• We find a way to make that contract easy to swallow (or at least easier)

Your spot on with your 3 conditions.

id require a 2-3 year commitment.  Re-structure the deal with either or a combination of a signing bonus that contractually obligates Rodgers to repay part of the SB if he retires without playing 2 years AND yearly roster bonuses.  

Rodgers signed a 3yr,  150.8M deal but if we trade for him there’s 3yr, 129M that we’d be responsible for or 43M APY.

Add 2 void years to that deal and re-do the deal to have a signing bonus and we can get the first two years down to around 15 + 20M cap hits.  I think We have a 2-3 year window until we’d have to rebuild drastically so I’d be willing to take on a 30M dead cap hit when he retires in 3 years.

We CAN’T trade for Rodgers and build the team enough to be a contender with 40-60M cap hits.  

Also, a trade with us would require a scenario where Rodgers has control over where he wants to go and wants to come here (and not NYJ) so the trade compensation is reduced.  A point I haven’t seen talked about is: If we trade for Rodgers then that has to pump up Carr’s trade value because he’s the only veteran QB option out there.  
 

While I think a Rodgers trade would more likely then not be good in the end, but I’d rather take a shot and fail then not make the trade and do a half hearted rebuild, which never works.  If we don’t trade for Rodgers then we need to draft Stroud/Levis (or trade down and add a ‘24 1st) and trade away Rodgers, Waller, Renfrow, tag and trade Jacobs and launch a full on rebuild and make a run in ‘24-26.

Edited February 5, 2023 by jimkelly02

[drfrey13]

15 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Short of a team panicking, the Packers aren't getting 2 FRPs out for Aaron Rodgers.  Or some hard to achieve conditions where a second FRP is sent to Green Bay.  And I'm still skeptical that the Raiders would include #7 in a Rodgers' trade.

Also, I feel fairly confident that Rodgers won't play the 2025 or 2026 season under his current contract.  The 2025 season has $20.9M in actual cash flow and the 2026 season is a measly $15.1M which are well-below market value.  If he's going to continue playing, it'll be on a new deal.

He has bonuses of over $30 million in 2024-25.  Decisions on these bonuses need to be made quickly.

 

YEAR AGEBASE SALARYSIGNINGROSTEROPTIONWORKOUTRESTRUCTURECAP HITDEAD CAPYEARLY CASH

202239$1,150,000$24,481,569--$50,000$2,852,000$28,533,569$151,047,137$42,000,000($42,000,000)

202340$1,165,000$12,981,568-$14,575,000$50,000$2,852,000$31,623,568$99,778,568$59,515,000($101,515,000)

POTENTIAL OUT: 2024, 2 YR, $101,515,000; $24,480,000 DEAD CAP

202441$2,250,000$8,160,000-$30,241,667$50,000-$40,701,667$24,480,000$49,300,000($150,815,000)

202542$15,850,000$8,160,000$5,000,000$30,241,667$50,000-$59,301,667$16,320,000$20,900,000($171,715,000)

202643$10,000,000$8,160,000$5,000,000$30,241,667$50,000-$53,451,667$8,160,000$15,050,000($186,765,000)

202544UFA 

Contract Notes:

$101.515M guaranteed at signing (2022 salary, 2022 roster bonus, 2023 salary, 2023 option bonus)

2022 Roster Bonus: $40.8M (fully guaranteed, treated as signing bonus, $20.4M paid 6/20/22, $20.4M paid 9/30/22)

2023 Option Bonus: $58.3M (guaranteed, must be exercised between March 17, 2023 - Week 1)

2024 Option Bonus (to exercise the 2026 compensation): $47M (injury guaranteed at signing, fully guarantees the 5th day of the 2024 waiver period)

Declining either of the 2023-2024 options converts the base salary for that year into the bonus figure ($58.3M, $47M respectively)

2025 Roster Bonus: $5M (paid 4/15/2025)

2026 Roster Bonus: $5M (paid 4/15/2026)

5 year total contract value: $186,750,000
3 year contract value: $150,815,000

These bonuses will be paid by us if we trade for him.  If we decline the bonuses and shorten the contract it becomes a 3 yr $150 million contract.  The only money the Packers carry is the signing bonuses that have already been paid.  We would end up paying him a lot.  Without a new contract I do not want us to do it.  We would be paying him $98 million over 2 years which makes him the highest paid player in the league on average and I think 3rd highest over the 2 years but I think Dak extends his contract which would make AR the #2 behind Watson.

[CWood21]

Just now, drfrey13 said:

These bonuses will be paid by us if we trade for him.  If we decline the bonuses and shorten the contract it becomes a 3 yr $150 million contract.  The only money the Packers carry is the signing bonuses that have already been paid.  We would end up paying him a lot.  Without a new contract I do not want us to do it.  We would be paying him $98 million over 2 years which makes him the highest paid player in the league on average and I think 3rd highest over the 2 years but I think Dak extends his contract which would make AR the #2 behind Watson.

The structure of the contract is key.  You may be paying him $50M, but his cap hit is just $15.2M if you pick up the option.  That's incredibly valuable in itself.  Plus, you're most likely in a rebuilding situation when he retires, so think of it more of a 2 year window to win a title.

[agarcia34]