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Random Bears Thoughts - Offseason Thread


Ty21

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12 minutes ago, Ty21 said:

So when is Hard Knocks revealing their team? The Bears have done a better job posting inside stuff on their YouTube channel but being on hard knocks would be amazing. 

it was supposed to be a month ago - all the teams are really fighting against it. a couple beat guys were saying george hopes their 1920 stuff ~should~ help them to avoid it

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3 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

Oh, well if Greg Gabriel says it...

I’m not saying this as credit to Greg or anyone else who has thrown out an opinion on the Claypool matter, but it’s the slowest time of year, there is extremely limited access right now, and things can absolutely spin out of control very quickly. 

Someone in the building could have offhandedly said that they question if he is “hurt or injured” then one person runs with it putting their own spin on it (to drive attention/clicks) and then there is no putting the genie back in the bottle at that point

Its just hard to trust anything we hear right now, from great praise, to disaster in a team room. 

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3 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

I’m not saying this as credit to Greg or anyone else who has thrown out an opinion on the Claypool matter, but it’s the slowest time of year, there is extremely limited access right now, and things can absolutely spin out of control very quickly. 

Someone in the building could have offhandedly said that they question if he is “hurt or injured” then one person runs with it putting their own spin on it (to drive attention/clicks) and then there is no putting the genie back in the bottle at that point

Its just hard to trust anything we hear right now, from great praise, to disaster in a team room. 

Very true.  Unless I see it on the NFL app or the Bears app, or maybe NFL radio, I won't give it a thought.

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18 minutes ago, HuskieBear said:

did anyone see DBB projected Kmet getting a 4/64 contract? anyone else but me think that's pretty absurd?

He’s going to be the second highest AAV for TEs just behind Waller from this year? And the second highest total value of all TE contracts other than Kittle? I’d say alittle more than absurd. 

Now I didn’t see it, did he maybe mean 4/46?

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6 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

He’s going to be the second highest AAV for TEs just behind Waller from this year? And the second highest total value of all TE contracts other than Kittle? I’d say alittle more than absurd. 

Now I didn’t see it, did he maybe mean 4/46?

https://www.dabearsblog.com/2023/projecting-cole-kmets-contract-extension#more-34947

Quote

PFF’s Brad Spielberger, who’s the best contract guy out there in NFL media right now, projected Kmet to sign a 4 year deal worth $13.3M per year, with 60% of the money guaranteed. That’s basically Knox’s deal with higher guarantees, and that seems too small to me, because Kmet has outproduced Knox at the point of signing the extension, is two years younger, and signing on a bigger salary cap. Even taking Knox’s deal and simply extrapolating it to a bigger salary cap would be about $14.8M/year, and Kmet can rightfully claim he should beat that, so I’d say $15M per year is roughly his floor, with $17.5M (the cap-extrapolated version of Dallas Goedert’s contract) his likely ceiling.

Due to his younger age, it’s possible Kmet could push for a fifth year on his deal, but he also might want only four years so that he has one more shot at a second big contract a few years down the road. We’ve seen the trend for shorter contracts playing out in recent years for that exact reason.

Final projection: 4 years, $64M ($16M/year), $30M guaranteed (50%)

 

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I mean, even 4/53.2 (would would be the yearly/cap bump inflation of Knox’s deal) might be high for Kmet right now.

Its why I still don’t think he gets an extension pre-season unless it’s extremely team friendly.

But looking at their reasoning; the age thing is pointless, Knox was after 3 years in the league so after Kmet’s 3 years it will Be one year age difference at signing, not 2. this isn’t the NBA draft and we’re talking 18 to 21 in the same draft.

After that, in What World has Kmet “outproduced” Knox? Let’s look at the previous 2 seasons; 

Kmet -34 games, 162 targets, 110 rec, 1156 yards (10.5 per) and 7 TDs

Knox- 30 games, 136 targets, 97 rec, 1104 yards, 15 TDs. 

So if you look at those on a per game basis, Knox’ Targets, Receptions and Yards all look even more similar to Kmet, but the TD gap just wides more than the double that it already is. 

You can play the “better offense” card, but I can return that with Knox is easily a rung lower on the Bills pecking order than Kmet is for the Bears (possibly 2 or even 3 rungs) 

Kmet is going to likely get more than any fan wants to pay him, that’s just how it works, but it feels like DBB is double counting multiple factors when comparing him to Knox. And if you look at the TE market this year, it’s pretty bleak out there. 

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1 hour ago, Scoundrel said:

Either or

I was joking. There's a poster here who thinks since Johnson has thrown 2 passes since 2016 or some **** that he should play QB here and there for the Bears

Anyway, there hasn't been a lot of talk about him in OTA's. The rookie getting the most attention & praise is Gervon Dexter

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17 hours ago, Scoundrel said:

How’s my guy Roschon looked?

The team really focused on the passing game during OTAs to help Fields develop in that area, especially since there was no contact allowed, so there was nothing really going on with the RBs, just walk through concepts. 

We'll know a lot more during TC, but i expect him to start as a core 4 STer and phase into the offense slowly behind herbert and foreman. but he's been getting high praise from the coaching staff.

just curious, why is he your guy? personal or just a UT fan?

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