GDT: Denver at Miami

[AnAngryAmerican]

Who: Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins 

When: Sunday, 11am MST on CBS

Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.

Line (as of 9/18): Miami -6.5

Intangibles: Well, it’s an east coast road trip and morning kickoff where we always struggle. Throw in the thick, heavy, humid air (forecast as of today is upper 80s with a high change for rain) and this will be an uphill battle. We’re reeling at 0-2 and the ‘Fins are 2-0 and thriving. Vic Fangio, who proved an awful HC, remains an elite DC and has the motivation to get back at us. We are playing with the season on the line after dropping two should-have-wins against the hapless McRaiders and the in-transition Commander. This game will be Miami’s home opener. 

Xs and Os: The overhyped, but efficient, Tua has a passer below the now universally hated upon Russ (108.5 to 102.9) but Tua’s weapons prove much to deal with. WR2 Jaylen Waddle (8/164/0) is in concussion protocol but the always extremely dangerous Tyreek Hill (16/255/3) remains a threat. Our only counter is PS2, who has been solid, but teams with multiple threats can easily overcome. Miami is the #1 overall offense and passing offense (yards) and #3 in scoring, with their first two games coming on the road. 

Coaching: Sean was expected to be the savior - the guy who could correct the in-game mistakes, fix Russ and win the close games. Russ has been better, as has the in-game management, but we also lost two games, at home, against bottom-third teams (to be nice) where we had halftime leads. The different, but brilliant, Mike McDaniel has his team trending in the opposite direction. McDaniel is creative and adaptable, something Sean used to be. 

Bottom line: If we can’t beat the McRaiders and Commanders at home, how can we go on a trip to the east coast and win a morning game against a playoff team? I guess all we can hope for is the “any given Sunday in the NFL.”

AAA’s prediction: We over perform, but still lose, Dolphins 29, Broncos 23

 

Edited September 19, 2023 by AnAngryAmerican

[lomaxgrUK]

It's the speed (on both side of the ball) that worries me. I just don't see how we're going to be able to deal with it in that heat at 11am (for our guys, obviously).

I'd like for us to take the Patriot approach in what they usually do with a threat of Hill's ilk. Your #2 CB travels with Hill, with Safety help over the top, leaving your #1 CB in single coverage the whole game. I would much rather live with that than ever risk having Hill in single coverage.

Vance played a ton of zone coverage last week, so that would have to be a massive schematic change for us to go down this route. In all likelihood, I'd expect a lot more 'bend don't break' zone coverage and hope we can keep them out of the endzone. We're going to need to defend the run a hell of a lot better than we did last week for that to work.

In my opinion, our only shot of winning this is to hope the game goes like the Raiders game. Shorten the game, limit the possessions in the hope it throws them out Offensively, and try to sneak out of there with a tight win.

I just can't see it. Not enough speed, not enough athleticism, not enough talent.

[jolly red giant]

Miami are better than us - and as a DC Vance Joseph is just plain bad at the job (was there no one else out there at the time).

I think AAA is being a bit hard on Payton - its only his third game - he has been saddled with Wilson - a roster lacking in talent and where formerly talented players (Sutton) aren't really performing anymore - and a defence under the tutelage of someone who has not shown he is any way competent at the job (ever - I really don't know how he keeps getting work as a DC) - and we have not had any draft picks worth talking about for the past two years. It is not his roster and he has to work with what he has available (which isn't a whole lot).

I agree with broncos67 - we are not going to win a SB with Wilson - I am hoping the plan is that Payton is going to make Wilson look good enough that a team desperate for a QB might give us something for him (anything really - just to get at least some of the contract off the books) - while we still end up with a top 3/5 draft pick to be in with a chance of a QB (because I cannot see us winning many games this season if the first two weeks are anything to go by) - and then start a complete rebuild from top to bottom and throughout the entire roster. It may take 2-3 more seasons to sort it if Payton goes about it in the right way - because we need new blood pretty much everywhere on the team.

Edited September 20, 2023 by jolly red giant

[jsthomp2007]

42-17 Miami

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

It's the speed (on both side of the ball) that worries me. I just don't see how we're going to be able to deal with it in that heat at 11am (for our guys, obviously).

I'd like for us to take the Patriot approach in what they usually do with a threat of Hill's ilk. Your #2 CB travels with Hill, with Safety help over the top, leaving your #1 CB in single coverage the whole game. I would much rather live with that than ever risk having Hill in single coverage.

Vance played a ton of zone coverage last week, so that would have to be a massive schematic change for us to go down this route. In all likelihood, I'd expect a lot more 'bend don't break' zone coverage and hope we can keep them out of the endzone. We're going to need to defend the run a hell of a lot better than we did last week for that to work.

In my opinion, our only shot of winning this is to hope the game goes like the Raiders game. Shorten the game, limit the possessions in the hope it throws them out Offensively, and try to sneak out of there with a tight win.

I just can't see it. Not enough speed, not enough athleticism, not enough talent.

The other issue - McDaniel is growing as a gamecaller.   Last year, if you took away the intermediate - deep ball and dared him to run, McDaniel would stubbornly keep throwing it.  The NE game on SNF, BB basically dared them to just run the ball - and McDaniel took the easy 4-5 yard plays.     But yeah, the element where MIA's O absolutely destroys us is speed.   And not just straight-line speed (they do have 5 guys with literally sub 4.4 speed on O, so it's impressive), but they use motion so effectively to create isolation spots with speed vs. slow guys so well.    With us losing Sterns, we don't have playmakers across the field like we would with PS2/Simmons/Sterns would have provided.   McDaniel is a great schemer at finding the soft spot, and we've got 2-3 of them right now.  

I do think Payton has adjusted as best as he can for Russ' limitations.   And I do think we can keep it close, with the path you cited.   But realistically we need a 2+ TO game to win - when that happens, something like 85% of teams win (and that's how big upsets happen).    The far more likely outcome is we lose.    Still, it's important for our young guys to get this experience, and do it competitively.    It goes without saying after Sterns that having our young core guys stay healthy while they get better is the main long-term goal.

And yeah, if we lose, it sucks, but if we're not going to be a playoff team, have the coaches and players try as hard as possible, let the young guys get experience - but ending up with a top 5 pick is far better than being in the 10-15 mediocrity range, or worse, 15+ but no real shot of long-term contention.   Still, it's any given Sunday - I do think we keep it a lot closer than ppl think, especially as the O is looking better each week, but in the end, fall short again.

 

P.S.  As improved as our O is, I'd like to see our D be a LOT more disciplined.  The penalties just killed us, and 2-3 of them were just lack of discipline / low-IQ types.    Another nail in VJ's coaching coffin (but there's plenty of ammo, even factoring in the talent issues, exacerbated by the Browning / Sterns absences).

Edited September 20, 2023 by Broncofan

[Dbrog24]

Not only is their speed killer, Waddle is gonna carve us up cause surtain can't guard 2 people at once..Mathis RIP. Alternatively if we do that "ocean zone" where everyone is open, Tyrese is gonna have 4 or 5 TDs. This one is likely gonna be ugly folks. I actually think our only hope is Wilson scoring nearly every drive and we just happen to score last....so ya...bleak

[big_palooka]

24 minutes ago, Dbrog24 said:

Not only is their speed killer, Waddle is gonna carve us up cause surtain can't guard 2 people at once..Mathis RIP. Alternatively if we do that "ocean zone" where everyone is open, Tyrese is gonna have 4 or 5 TDs. This one is likely gonna be ugly folks. I actually think our only hope is Wilson scoring nearly every drive and we just happen to score last....so ya...bleak

[Dbrog24]

28 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Haha look man, if we play that zone, Tokyo Drift is gonna start showing up on his imdb

[lomaxgrUK]

I got thinking about how terrible we've been in the 2nd half of games vs the start when everything is scripted, so I had a quick look at the stats. Pretty incredible tbh.

Average points per drive in the first three drives of the game - 5.83
Average points per drive in all other drives - 1.36

Do we think that's on Russ, Payton, or both? 

I remember when we used to hammer Mike Shanahan on this forum at the end of his tenure for this sort of thing. Quite the throwback.

[BroncoSojia]

6 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

I got thinking about how terrible we've been in the 2nd half of games vs the start when everything is scripted, so I had a quick look at the stats. Pretty incredible tbh.

Average points per drive in the first three drives of the game - 5.83
Average points per drive in all other drives - 1.36

Do we think that's on Russ, Payton, or both? 

I remember when we used to hammer Mike Shanahan on this forum at the end of his tenure for this sort of thing. Quite the throwback.

I think it's on Russ. There are plays in the 2nd half where people are open and for whatever reason, he's not making the throws. I think the script does a good job of covering up Russ's limitations.

[Dbrog24]

22 minutes ago, BroncoSojia said:

I think it's on Russ. There are plays in the 2nd half where people are open and for whatever reason, he's not making the throws. I think the script does a good job of covering up Russ's limitations.

It's also on coaching though. Last game was a great example where there were nearly no passing plays in the first half (when we were killing it), and then all of a sudden nearly every play was a pass play, Mims sits down, Javonte isn't really involved. It's a main reason many of us were baffled at Sean's decisions. Anytime I see a disparity like that, I generally do put that on coaching and inability to adapt or in Sean's case, trying to get too cute with it rather than just keep smacking em in the mouth

[Broncofan]

10 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

I got thinking about how terrible we've been in the 2nd half of games vs the start when everything is scripted, so I had a quick look at the stats. Pretty incredible tbh.

Average points per drive in the first three drives of the game - 5.83
Average points per drive in all other drives - 1.36

Do we think that's on Russ, Payton, or both? 

I remember when we used to hammer Mike Shanahan on this forum at the end of his tenure for this sort of thing. Quite the throwback.

 

3 hours ago, BroncoSojia said:

I think it's on Russ. There are plays in the 2nd half where people are open and for whatever reason, he's not making the throws. I think the script does a good job of covering up Russ's limitations.

 

3 hours ago, Dbrog24 said:

It's also on coaching though. Last game was a great example where there were nearly no passing plays in the first half (when we were killing it), and then all of a sudden nearly every play was a pass play, Mims sits down, Javonte isn't really involved. It's a main reason many of us were baffled at Sean's decisions. Anytime I see a disparity like that, I generally do put that on coaching and inability to adapt or in Sean's case, trying to get too cute with it rather than just keep smacking em in the mouth

 

The obvious answer is both are correct.   Russ still can't anticipate and throw guys open, he has to see the receiver come open, and D's know this.    And between him bailing when there's only 3 guys rushing vs. his dogged belief he can make guys miss in the open field (spoiler:  he can't, unless they're going in wrong direction and he cuts back, that's literally his only move), it's how D's compensate.   It will get better when Jeudy is close to 100 percent (don't think it's this week) and we get Dulcich back (obv not for 3 more games minimum), but yeah, it's rough that way.

 

At the same time, Payton absolutely loves to fall in love with getting cute - Taysom Hill love, trick plays, etc.   His love of guys who are clearly less talented (Taysom as a gadget guy, OK, but as a real QB, and 10-12 touches a game? GTFO...and we've already seen what Trautman CAN'T do), and getting too cute, are flaws in another excellent O mind resume and skill set. 

So yeah, it's kinda lame & safe, but saying both deserve blame IMO is both the easiest and likely correct answer.

[champ11]

22 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

I got thinking about how terrible we've been in the 2nd half of games vs the start when everything is scripted, so I had a quick look at the stats. Pretty incredible tbh.

Average points per drive in the first three drives of the game - 5.83
Average points per drive in all other drives - 1.36

Do we think that's on Russ, Payton, or both? 

I remember when we used to hammer Mike Shanahan on this forum at the end of his tenure for this sort of thing. Quite the throwback.

Russ sucks.

2 biggest drives back to back weeks he had clean pockets and rocketed easy first down passes into near dirt so Sutton and Jeudy had to go down and not easily pick up first downs.

Stuff like that lets me know Russ' ceiling is like 22nd best qb in the nfl 

[Dbrog24]

21 minutes ago, champ11 said:

Russ sucks.

2 biggest drives back to back weeks he had clean pockets and rocketed easy first down passes into near dirt so Sutton and Jeudy had to go down and not easily pick up first downs.

Stuff like that lets me know Russ' ceiling is like 22nd best qb in the nfl 

I get the frustration but a bit of an overreaction for now I think. We are right now still #1 in points per possession and Russ is actually a big part of that. He's on track to throw 40+ TDs and under 10 picks. That's better than anything we've had here in ages and definitely way better than 22nd in the NFL

[AKRNA]

On 9/20/2023 at 1:17 AM, jolly red giant said:

Miami are better than us - and as a DC Vance Joseph is just plain bad at the job (was there no one else out there at the time).

I think AAA is being a bit hard on Payton - its only his third game - he has been saddled with Wilson - a roster lacking in talent and where formerly talented players (Sutton) aren't really performing anymore - and a defence under the tutelage of someone who has not shown he is any way competent at the job (ever - I really don't know how he keeps getting work as a DC) - and we have not had any draft picks worth talking about for the past two years. It is not his roster and he has to work with what he has available (which isn't a whole lot).

I agree with broncos67 - we are not going to win a SB with Wilson - I am hoping the plan is that Payton is going to make Wilson look good enough that a team desperate for a QB might give us something for him (anything really - just to get at least some of the contract off the books) - while we still end up with a top 3/5 draft pick to be in with a chance of a QB (because I cannot see us winning many games this season if the first two weeks are anything to go by) - and then start a complete rebuild from top to bottom and throughout the entire roster. It may take 2-3 more seasons to sort it if Payton goes about it in the right way - because we need new blood pretty much everywhere on the team.

personally I think Sean deserves about a 2-3 year pass. He's had nothing to do with the mess he inherited and can't really hope to accomplish much his first year other than stop the bleeding. Turning this train wreck around will take time.