Week 5 GDT: Broncos vs. NY Jets

[Broncofan]

27 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

IMO there have only been 4 QB's that you'd take with your 1st pick regardless of how terrible your team was, guys that were basically "can't miss". Elway, Manning, Luck and Lawrence. Do you really think this years class has someone of that caliber?

Add Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Tua to the present day list - rather than 'can't miss' - it's "can't pass up'.  And while it's early, I think CJ Stroud makes that list - the guys that change orgs by being drafted there - and it's no coincidence those 5 guys are drafted in the last 5-6 years, and all drafted in the top 6 picks, too.   There is no such thing as can't miss QB's - just like there aren't can't miss non-QB prospects, too.   Nothing's a given.  But there are guys who are too good ceiling/skill/projection-wise to pass up if they're there.     WIlliams and Maye belong there for me.   

Some guys are worth the top elite pick.   I'm not sure on Penix, but his early Indiana success, continued with his growth, has me intrigued that he could also be that guy (3 years of success counting this one, being good young at an early age in the the Big 10, and on a bad team, facing better competition).   I definitely want to see him elite college D's, to see if the changes the last 2 years really stick (Pac-12 alone, no thansk).   But to be clear, only 2 for sure are on the "can't pass up" list.   If we're lucky, Penix joins there.   Still, 3 in one year is very rare - and there are 2-3 others that are getting R1 talk (but that's a lower tier, and I don't think we should go there automatically). 

The thing is, this is a great year for QB's.  There are 2 guys who would be hands down the elite 1.1 pick most years, maybe 3.   That's incredibly rare.  And there's a very good tier after that too - we haven't seen that in a long time.   This is as good of a class as 2020's top 3, as we've seen.   

The thing about saying wait - every time we've waited, the year we target QB,  it's been totally devoid of franchise-changing talent.  That's why you take the shot when you have it if you believe the 'can't pass up' guy is there.    Instead of having to squint and say "yeah, I think he might be worth a 1st round pick, or early 2nd" - which is what we did with Drew Lock.   And earlier with Brock Osweiler.  

This is a great year to want QB if we have a top 5 pick.   The chances of getting Maye are really high.  I could get behind that for sure.   And in contrast - it's not a great year for elite DL talent, sadly no Jalen Carter or Jordan Davis.   The PSU T is pretty special though.   But if it's Maye vs. him, yeah, I'm on Maye.   Penix, that's a tougher convo, but we have another half-season and then bowl season (ideally playoff games vs. top D's) to see where he fits. 

I get the argument we're worse off if we waste the pick on a miss - but there are guys who are too good in what we see, and what we can project in their skills, that it's a no-brainer to take.   We've also wasted a lot of years taking middling prospects R2 in years devoid of franchise-changing talent.   If Williams / Maye are there, easy call.  If it's Penix, that's a good discussion, we'll know more by then (elite competition performance is what we're missing so far).   If it's beyond that, then I get your stance 100 percent.    

Edited October 11, 2023 by Broncofan

[AKRNA]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Add Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Tua to the present day list - rather than 'can't miss' - it's "can't pass up'.  And while it's early, I think CJ Stroud makes that list - the guys that change orgs by being drafted there - and it's no coincidence those 5 guys are drafted in the last 5-6 years, and all drafted in the top 6 picks, too.   There is no such thing as can't miss QB's - just like there aren't can't miss non-QB prospects, too.   Nothing's a given.  But there are guys who are too good ceiling/skill/projection-wise to pass up if they're there.     WIlliams and Maye belong there for me.   

Some guys are worth the top elite pick.   I'm not sure on Penix, but his early Indiana success, continued with his growth, has me intrigued that he could also be that guy (3 years of success counting this one, being good young at an early age in the the Big 10, and on a bad team, facing better competition).   I definitely want to see him elite college D's, to see if the changes the last 2 years really stick (Pac-12 alone, no thansk).   But to be clear, only 2 for sure are on the "can't pass up" list.   If we're lucky, Penix joins there.   Still, 3 in one year is very rare - and there are 2-3 others that are getting R1 talk (but that's a lower tier, and I don't think we should go there automatically). 

The thing is, this is a great year for QB's.  There are 2 guys who would be hands down the elite 1.1 pick most years, maybe 3.   That's incredibly rare.  And there's a very good tier after that too - we haven't seen that in a long time.   This is as good of a class as 2020's top 3, as we've seen.   

The thing about saying wait - every time we've waited, the year we target QB,  it's been totally devoid of franchise-changing talent.  That's why you take the shot when you have it if you believe the 'can't pass up' guy is there.    Instead of having to squint and say "yeah, I think he might be worth a 1st round pick, or early 2nd" - which is what we did with Drew Lock.   And earlier with Brock Osweiler.  

This is a great year to want QB if we have a top 5 pick.   The chances of getting Maye are really high.  I could get behind that for sure.   And in contrast - it's not a great year for elite DL talent, sadly no Jalen Carter or Jordan Davis.   The PSU T is pretty special though.   But if it's Maye vs. him, yeah, I'm on Maye.   Penix, that's a tougher convo, but we have another half-season and then bowl season (ideally playoff games vs. top D's) to see where he fits. 

I get the argument we're worse off if we waste the pick on a miss - but there are guys who are too good in what we see, and what we can project in their skills, that it's a no-brainer to take.   We've also wasted a lot of years taking middling prospects R2 in years devoid of franchise-changing talent.   If Williams / Maye are there, easy call.  If it's Penix, that's a good discussion, we'll know more by then (elite competition performance is what we're missing so far).   If it's beyond that, then I get your stance 100 percent.    

You've changed the discussion. It was about top QB picks going to terrible teams. Not what you've mentioned.

 

[Broncofan]

19 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

You've changed the discussion. It was about top QB picks going to terrible teams. Not what you've mentioned.

 

Your discussion.  My take has stayed the same.  We can have both.    But FWIW Jax / Cin / HOU / LAR / MIA were all bottom 6 teams when they drafted Lawrence / Burrow / Stroud / Herbert & Tua.   None of those teams are complaining now.   And all in the last 5 years.   Some guys are simply worth it.  2020 was a rare year where 3 guys were worth it.  Even on bad teams.    I believe 2 are this year, maybe 3.  
 

We don’t have to agree and we likely won’t.  FWIW after the top 3 I get your point.  I just think at least 2 if not 3 guys are can’t-pass if they are there.  All good.  

Edited October 11, 2023 by Broncofan

[jsthomp2007]

I think the quarterback situation is moot until the Broncos fix the trenches.  In the fire sale that is about to ensue, I would try to get back any solid lineman (defense or offense) you can get along with some picks and use those picks to continue to stockpile offensive and defensive linemen.  And then I would hire the best offensive and defensive linemen coaches out there. 

To me, it all starts from there on offense.  If you have a great offensive line, the running game works; if you have a good running game, the passing game improves.  If we are talking about rebuilding, it has to start there with the big uglies.  Then Javonte, Jaleel, and Perine can shine, eat up some clock, and pound the rock. 

And then I would begin finding a smart QB who gets the ball out quickly who has some mobility., who is clutch.  Realizing Caleb won't be available, I would think about Shedeur in the 2025 draft.  I think he has those traits. The only thing I don't see from Shedeur is getting the ball out quickly but rarely does he have time, because the CU offensive line is as bad as the Broncos.  Thus, my opinion is to fix that first. 

Edited October 11, 2023 by jsthomp2007

[jolly red giant]

When you have the opportunity to pick a franchise QB then you have to take it.

The problem with the 2024 draft is that it is possible that Chicago will have the top two picks - so even if the Broncos are picking third it is likely that they will have to trade up to 1.2 to get either Williams or Maye - and that will cost, even from 1.3

[Broncofan]

56 minutes ago, jolly red giant said:

When you have the opportunity to pick a franchise QB then you have to take it.

The problem with the 2024 draft is that it is possible that Chicago will have the top two picks - so even if the Broncos are picking third it is likely that they will have to trade up to 1.2 to get either Williams or Maye - and that will cost, even from 1.3

CHI gets to play CAR, LV, ARI & MIN 2x, and next week without Justin Jefferson - so they've got very winnable games on their schedule. 

We get vs. NE, vs. MIN, @HOU (who looks like a legitimately better team right now, the D is legit, Stroud sure looks it) and of course, @LV Week 18.   Honestly, as much as I don't think we can even sniff 1.1, CHI is about even money or better to finish better than us (and it's not H2H that decides draft position in a tie, but Strength of Schedule). 

The team that seems to have the inside track to 1.1 is CAR (which of course, CHI owns the pick).   If they don't win games in their own division, they have vs, GB (winnable if Jordan Love is that bad like MNF), vs HOU & IND, and vs. JAX.  I don't think they'll be favorites for any games except the vs. IND (they'll still be on their backup QB Minshew by then).

I think it's very likely CHI will own 1.1 by having CAR's pick, it's less clear if CHI will end up 1.2 by themselves, though - that's a very soft schedule.  What a disaster by CAR - the owner Tepper apparently overruled the football minds in going Bryce Young over CJ Stroud - there's lot of time for Bryce Young to be better, but Stroud looks like THAT guy.    The fact he's doing it being a patchwork OL and only Nico Collins as his main WR, is so impressive.  For CAR to move up and get the wrong guy...that's gotta sting.    HOU fans deserve this good fortune though after living through the BOB / McNair years and of course the whole Watson debacle. 

Back to DEN - I wouldn't get too fussed about what happens with 1.2 yet.   The reality is that if a team owns the top 2 picks, they may in fact double up and go Williams - PSU LT, or go Williams & Marvin Harrison Jr.   Harrison Jr. is that special of a WR prospect, he's being viewed as generational (even above Chase, who obv went top 5). 

Edited October 11, 2023 by Broncofan

[AKRNA]

13 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Your discussion.  My take has stayed the same.  We can have both.    But FWIW Jax / Cin / HOU / LAR / MIA were all bottom 6 teams when they drafted Lawrence / Burrow / Stroud / Herbert & Tua.   None of those teams are complaining now.   And all in the last 5 years.   Some guys are simply worth it.  2020 was a rare year where 3 guys were worth it.  Even on bad teams.    I believe 2 are this year, maybe 3.  
 

We don’t have to agree and we likely won’t.  FWIW after the top 3 I get your point.  I just think at least 2 if not 3 guys are can’t-pass if they are there.  All good.  

Sure, whatever.

[jsthomp2007]

If Drake May is there at 3, would SP want him?  He is a pocket passer who is accurate, with a better arm than Brees.  Would this make George draft him? But, then, it doesn't solve the problem that we have an atrocious offensive line.  I don't know if Drake May gets the ball out every quickly, but he will have to learn to if the Broncos draft him and they don't address the offensive line. 

[Broncofan]

25 minutes ago, jsthomp2007 said:

If Drake May is there at 3, would SP want him?  He is a pocket passer who is accurate, with a better arm than Brees.  Would this make George draft him? But, then, it doesn't solve the problem that we have an atrocious offensive line.  I don't know if Drake May gets the ball out every quickly, but he will have to learn to if the Broncos draft him and they don't address the offensive line. 

Joe Burrow got drafted, terrible OL first 1-2 years, then CIN addressed the OL after (but even went with Ja'marr Chase the next year).   Probably a year too long planning-wise, but Chase was that good to pass up.

Justin Herbert got drafted, terrible OL year 1, then Chargers went heavy on OL the next year (with Slater as an all-pro level LT)

Trevor Lawrence got drafted, terrible OL year 1, then JAX went and upgraded it in following years.

Tua was the poster child for the risk in waiting too long, but same deal, except they went FA with Terron Armstead, and some Day 2 picks for IOL.

CJ Stroud is playing behind a terrible OL, right now, an OK but not elite supporting cast (although Nico Collins is very underrated) - and he's making that work because he's that good.    

All 5 teams above - bottom 5 records, all bad OL's.    There's always the risk of catastrophic injury - but if you're truly great at QB, as long as you don't get beat up for multiple years, the talent shines through.  As much as ppl think David Carr would have been great if he didn't get brutalized in year 1, very few cases in the post-cap era where a great QB didn't start on a bad team, and usually with a bad OL.    There's a reason they're picking so early. 

Plus - all those picks, in the last 5 years.   And in the case of Herbert, Tua & Stroud - not even the top guy taken that year.   2020 was pretty special that way.

The theme?   Get the great 'can't pass' QB & absolutely prioritize the OL when you can.   But again, prioritizing the OL first, you may not get the chance to get that great QB in subsequent years - and then you're stuck with the Brock Osweilers and Drew Locks of the world.   Again, none of those teams are looking back wishing they had prioritized OL ahead of QB.   Of course that's the ideal plan - but finding the QB is rarely an only-1-path way - striking when the opportunity presents itself has paid off for those teams wonderfully.

Again, it depends on if the great 'can't pass up' guy is there.  Often they're not - and the big mistake teams make is in thinking a guy should go because he's the best guy available - but he's not elite-ceiling / great-skill (Kenny Pickett, Daniel Jones, Mac Jones are great examples of this R1 fallacy).  But this could be one of the years where a truly great 'can't pass up' guy is there where we pick.   If it's Maye, fire away.    

 

 

Edited October 11, 2023 by Broncofan

[Cutler06]

6 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said:

If Drake May is there at 3, would SP want him?  He is a pocket passer who is accurate, with a better arm than Brees.  Would this make George draft him? But, then, it doesn't solve the problem that we have an atrocious offensive line.  I don't know if Drake May gets the ball out every quickly, but he will have to learn to if the Broncos draft him and they don't address the offensive line. 

Also, Maye wouldn't play in his 1st year, he'd sit behind Russ that year to assist in lowering his cap number. Draft OL next year and with a lower pick this year OR with some more FA money ( how well did George do with that this year ?)

Edited October 12, 2023 by Cutler06

[broncofan48]

2 minutes ago, Cutler06 said:

Also, Maye wouldn't play in his 1st year, he'd sit behind Russ that year to assist in lowering his cap number. Draft OL next year and with a lower pick this year OR with some more FA money ( how well did George do with that this year ?)

I do think if QB is the pick this is the move -  let Russ and his dead cap hit take the hits until the 2025 draft and consequent season when ideally you fortify the OL and other positions.  
 

Now I don’t know enough about QBs so deferring to everyone who says Williams and Maye are top notch prospects of course.   And maybe as much as I want the QBOTF, the move is trade down and accumulate picks if those guys aren’t available at wherever Denver’s pick ends up being.   

[BroncoBruin]

1. Take Williams

2. Take Maye

3. Trade down

 

Really the only three options that make sense for this team in its current state. 

[big_palooka]

4 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

1. Take Williams

2. Take Maye

3. Trade down

 

Really the only three options that make sense for this team in its current state. 

Olu Fashanu would make a lot of sense. He's the best LT prospect in a decade. Even Marvin Harrison Jr. would be to good to pass on at 3 if I'm Denver. Best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson. Either of those players are franchise cornerstones, can't pass on them.

[broncos67]

1 hour ago, big_palooka said:

Olu Fashanu would make a lot of sense. He's the best LT prospect in a decade. Even Marvin Harrison Jr. would be to good to pass on at 3 if I'm Denver. Best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson. Either of those players are franchise cornerstones, can't pass on them.

Fashanu is absolutely on the table given Payton likes OLs and has been generally good in OL development. I think Marvin Harrison Jr. could/should certainly be considered, but I don't think Denver should spend the luxury pick on WR when there's so much else to fix, and that's coming from a guy who is all for drafting skill position players annually in this day and age.

[jsthomp2007]

18 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Joe Burrow got drafted, terrible OL first 1-2 years, then CIN addressed the OL after (but even went with Ja'marr Chase the next year).   Probably a year too long planning-wise, but Chase was that good to pass up.

Justin Herbert got drafted, terrible OL year 1, then Chargers went heavy on OL the next year (with Slater as an all-pro level LT)

Trevor Lawrence got drafted, terrible OL year 1, then JAX went and upgraded it in following years.

Tua was the poster child for the risk in waiting too long, but same deal, except they went FA with Terron Armstead, and some Day 2 picks for IOL.

CJ Stroud is playing behind a terrible OL, right now, an OK but not elite supporting cast (although Nico Collins is very underrated) - and he's making that work because he's that good.    

All 5 teams above - bottom 5 records, all bad OL's.    There's always the risk of catastrophic injury - but if you're truly great at QB, as long as you don't get beat up for multiple years, the talent shines through.  As much as ppl think David Carr would have been great if he didn't get brutalized in year 1, very few cases in the post-cap era where a great QB didn't start on a bad team, and usually with a bad OL.    There's a reason they're picking so early. 

Plus - all those picks, in the last 5 years.   And in the case of Herbert, Tua & Stroud - not even the top guy taken that year.   2020 was pretty special that way.

The theme?   Get the great 'can't pass' QB & absolutely prioritize the OL when you can.   But again, prioritizing the OL first, you may not get the chance to get that great QB in subsequent years - and then you're stuck with the Brock Osweilers and Drew Locks of the world.   Again, none of those teams are looking back wishing they had prioritized OL ahead of QB.   Of course that's the ideal plan - but finding the QB is rarely an only-1-path way - striking when the opportunity presents itself has paid off for those teams wonderfully.

Again, it depends on if the great 'can't pass up' guy is there.  Often they're not - and the big mistake teams make is in thinking a guy should go because he's the best guy available - but he's not elite-ceiling / great-skill (Kenny Pickett, Daniel Jones, Mac Jones are great examples of this R1 fallacy).  But this could be one of the years where a truly great 'can't pass up' guy is there where we pick.   If it's Maye, fire away.    

 

 

Good points.  I mean, if you have a good QB who can read defenses and get the ball out quickly like Drake Maye looks like he can, then that can cure some flaws in the offensive line where they don't have to block as long as they do for Russ, and there is less time to make mistakes like getting holding calls.  Plus, if the Broncos decide to sell this year and stockpile draft picks, they can pick up offensive linemen later in the draft. 
 

Edited October 12, 2023 by jsthomp2007