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Week 6 GDT: TNF Broncos @ Chiefs


BroncoSojia

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44 minutes ago, champ11 said:

no chance im watching this game 

FWIW, I think we lose, but keep it to <10 pts (as DEN is +10.5, if you're into that sort of thing).

I'd argue there may be 4 reasons to watch:

1.   See how Bonnito / Cooper / Browning fare in hostile territory vs. the KC T's.   A lot has been made about the RT Jawaan Taylor and his leaving early / being too far back, but the bigger story in KC is LT Donovan Smith kinda is meh to outright sucks (and that was his MO in TAM, he was the weakest link there).   With Mahomes being gimpy in the MIN game (he had 0 runs), it's something to watch for.

2.  Seeing how Drew Sanders improves with more time - I imagine VJ will have Justin Simmons on Travis Kelce (or at least some non-brain-dead DC would do that), and force the rest of the skill guys to beat us.    Kelce is NOT even close to 100 percent right now.   Ironically, that opens up things for their 2nd TD Noah Gray, and they're still looking for someone from the WR corps to step up (former Clemson college star Justyn Ross is getting healthy, he and Rashee Rice are my picks to be their top 2 WR by season's end - everyone else is really not a separator except for Kadarius Toney, who can't stay on the field and between-ear issues still present).

3.  I suspect Marvin Mims will get more PT, for Payton & co. to see how he rebounds after the 2-TO miserable NYJ game.    Big chance for character growth there.   He and Jeudy are the only 2 guys with any ability to separate, Payton would be wise to deploy him more accordingly, even if it's a limited route tree.

4.   Jaleel Mclaughlin has a great matchup in the pass game and our run game (if we stay committed to it).   Watching that guy puts a smile on my face (and yes, I have shares of him in every dynasty league I'm in lol).

Now, Patrick Mahomes is still the GOAT (even if his mobility is limited), and DC Spagnolo is still a great mind, so I don't expect we'll win.   But I suspect we'll keep it close to a 1-score game, but in the end fall short.    But with Bonnito, Cooper, Browning & Simmons back, and the potential for the O to feature Mclaughlin / Mims more and Jeudy getting to face the KC secondary again, I'll be watching (it will help that I'll have Jeudy / Mclaughlin & Pacheco props, with TD's for Gray & Ross if they're priced appropriately lol).  

But yeah, if it's to watch thinking we'll win...I get it lol.   I'll say KC 27-20 over us.

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1 hour ago, champ11 said:

no chance im watching this game 

next two of three games are against the chiefs.  I don't watch us against the chiefs either.  In fact my iptv messed up with the Jets game but I guess that wasn't a bad thing, lmfao.  I don't know who else we play over that 3 game stretch but I figure it will be a loss................

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3 hours ago, anewdawn said:

next two of three games are against the chiefs.  I don't watch us against the chiefs either.  In fact my iptv messed up with the Jets game but I guess that wasn't a bad thing, lmfao.  I don't know who else we play over that 3 game stretch but I figure it will be a loss................

Cheifs-Packers-Cheifs-Bills over the next 4.

There is a very real chance the Broncos are 1-8 going into the game against Minnesota.

Im going to tune in for the game Thursday, but have a strict 3 possession rule. As soon as they get down by 17+, the game is being turned off. Im not sitting there for 3 hours watching them get embarrassed again on national TV 49-17.

Edited by AkronsWitness
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19 minutes ago, AkronsWitness said:

Cheifs-Packers-Cheifs-Bills over the next 4.

There is a very real chance the Broncos are 1-8 going into the game against Minnesota.

Im going to tune in for the game Thursday, but have a strict 3 possession rule. As soon as they get down by 17+, the game is being turned off. Im not sitting there for 3 hours watching them get embarrassed again on national TV 49-17.

1-9 no way they beat the Vikings IMO.  The 2 games after that will tell the tale of 1st overall or just top 5 pick

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5 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

Chiefs-Packers-Chiefs-Bills over the next 4.

There is a very real chance the Broncos are 1-8 going into the game against Minnesota.

Im going to tune in for the game Thursday, but have a strict 3 possession rule. As soon as they get down by 17+, the game is being turned off. Im not sitting there for 3 hours watching them get embarrassed again on national TV 49-17.

The Packers game is the one that's going to be close.   Jordan Love was absolutely dreadful today.    Playing on the road, if he pulls something close to that vs. us, it will make for a very close game. 

There's always the possibility of an @ DAL type result where we go +3 in TO's or better, or pull out the improbable W.   But short of that, yeah, we could very well be 1-8.   

I actually think the BUF game has the highest blowout potential of those 4 games.   KC "just" has Kelce (which is very good) as an elite weapon, ironically McKinnon might be our 2nd most difficult matchup.   But it's Patrick Mahomes at home, he'll find a way.     BUF, on the other hand, has us covered in all facets with their skill guys, and their D, while more run vulnerable now with Daquon Jones & Matt Milano out, are so opportunistic...and Von's going to be back there.  

Edited by Broncofan
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5 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

Bring your daughter, bring your daughter, to the slauggghhhtttttttttterrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

(some may have to google that ...)

Yeh, we've got no chance in any of the 3 phases of Football.

You're showing your age lol, but tip of the cap to the Maiden.

FWIW, this is an important 4-game stretch for Russell Wilson - not because it will change any minds on whether he should stay long-term (he clearly isn't the long-term answer), but he gets to play @ KC on TNF this week, and then @BUF on SNF Week 10 - probably his only 2 prime time spots this year (Week 18 Dec 24 SNF vs. NE is DEFINITELY getting flexed out, and I think Week 11 vs. MIN is almost certainly going to as well) - that likely will be something every GM sees.  Next offseason, if we do draft the real QBOTF, then how well Wilson plays rest of season, even if he's as limited as we see, will determine if there's any trade value - even in simply ridding ourselves of the dead money that's left.   Playing well even if we lose, that will help Wilson's potential 2024 trade value.

If we trade Wilson before the start of the 2024 financial NFL year, we take a 46M cap hit instead of 68M, because the 2024 option bonus only comes due in the financial new year (mid-March) - and any team trading for him would likely want him in as early as possible.   If we trade him after March but before June, then we're back to a 68M cap hit.      We're not going to get anything more than salary relief in either scenario, but Wilson's current 2024 cap number is 36M - so a pre-March salary dump trade would "only" cost us 10M more in 2024 cap space, and then free us up from 2025 onwards.    We can manage parting of the ways with Wilson in any scenario for 2024, but obv the more $ saved, the better.  As we'd guarantee his 2025 37M salary if he's on our roster in 2024 3rd day of new year, I actually think there's almost no chance he will be on our roster by mid-March - it's just a matter of how it happens (except if he's seriously hurt and can't pass a physical by then, then we're stuck with 2025's 37M salary with injury guarantees).

The above is also why trading Courtland Sutton is a no-brainer - with a 2023 14M salary and 13.5M in 2024 (with 7.6M in dead money added on) - trading him before the deadline gets us 14M ahead, and with each week ahead of the trade deadline, we save another 800K.   DJ Jones at 10M for 2023, is another candidate whom we save more money the sooner we deal him, as it seems a reach that he'll be back.    And as much as I don't think we just give away Justin Simmons, his 14.4M / 14.5M salary for 2023 / 24 means that it makes sense if we get the right offer.   The same applies to Garrett Bolles, who has a 17M salary now and 16M in 2024 (wouldn't give him away, but a R3 pick and that salary relief, then it makes complete sense). 

If we part ways with Sutton / Tim Patrick / DJ Jones & Alex Singleton next offseason (or earlier), that clears 39.5M in cap space alone for 2024.  We have a 2024 cap balance of -19.5M with Gregory's departure.   So we could handle even a Russell Wilson cut that's before June 1st (and designated as post June 1, super easy but with the 68M split between 2024 & 2025, as the cap number would literally stay the same, but we have 34M more dead money in 2025), but a pre-March trade would increase the 2024 cap # to 46M, but 0 dead money in 2025+.    With those moves above, even without any trades this year, we'd still have 10M+ left in cap space - and any trades now for DJ Jones / Courtland Sutton / Justin Simmons / Garrett Bolles would only increase the #.

TL:DR - Russell plays even just "OK" to well, our ability to trade him for salary relief (don't count on a premium pick - lol), goes way up for 2024.   Trade would need to happen before 2024 football new year (mid-March), then we really open up cap space for 2025+.   Because the 2025 37M salary guarantees on the 3rd day of new year (in mid March 2024), I think it's clear this is his last year, barring some sort of contract renegotiation.   The other part - anyone of Courtland Sutton, DJ Jones, Justin Simmons or Garrett Bolles (the latter 2 who again I wouldn't give away, but the first 2 can be had for peanuts) get traded b4 the deadline - we're in even better cap space. 

 

Edited by Broncofan
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15 hours ago, broncofan48 said:

1-9 no way they beat the Vikings IMO.  The 2 games after that will tell the tale of 1st overall or just top 5 pick

With Justin Jefferson out, this could be the battle of two 1-8 teams.

It's currently scheduled for SNF - lol.    Week 11 is the first week in the window where SNF games can be rescheduled without any limits (they can only reschedule 2 SNF games in Week 5-10).  If I had tix (remember I'm a Canuck), I'd be planning for an afternoon game.

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