2024 Offseason Free Agency

[vikingsrule]

11 hours ago, SemperFeist said:

Because the objective is to build the best team to be competitive. Committing to a veteran QB for 2-3 years is a commitment to build the most competitive team possible around that QB.

Using the 11th pick on a bench warmer doesn’t do that. 

I mean we just saw what happens if you lose your QB with a meaningful injury. While Kirk is reliable and doesn’t get injured up until this year, adding real talent at QB2 is making the team more competitive. You’re an injury away from having your season derailed. In this case, I don’t care if the benchwarmer is the most valuable position on the field. 

[swede700]

 

[SemperFeist]

Just some quick thoughts I jotted down.

The Vikings are currently sitting at $25M in expected cap space for 2024. 

Hypothetically, the Vikings could extend Cousins, Hunter, and Jefferson, and still create between $35M and $40M to play with in 2024. 

Spotrac lists Cousins market value at $39M per year, and Hunter’s market value at $20M per year. If we use those numbers, and say Cousins signs a 2 year, $75M contract (a small “hometown discount” from his market value), the contract breakdown could look something like;

2024: $31.5M cap hit (13% of the expected cap)
2025: $34M cap hit (13% of the projected cap)
2026 (VOID): $38M cap hit (13% of the projected cap)

That would slightly increase Cousins’ 2024 cap hit by $3M. Leaving the team with $22M in cap space. 

And let’s say Hunter agrees to a 4 year, $84M contract. Slightly above market value. A contract could be structured in a way that doesn’t create space, but also doesn’t create huge cap hits down the road;

2024: $21M cap hit (8.6% of cap)
2025: $21M cap hit (8%)
2026: $21M cap hit (7.4%)
2027: $21M cap hit (6.7%)
2028 (VOID): $14.4M cap hit

That would increase Hunter’s 2024 cap hit by $6.5M. Leaving the team with $14.5M in cap space. 

Then we get to Jefferson. It doesn’t really matter what Jefferson signs for, but I’m expecting something around 5 years, $175M. Which just tops Bosa’s deal. I found this tweet from Joel Corey, who’s a former agent,

If we apply the same scenario to Jefferson, that’ll create ~$10M in cap space. Moving the cap space back to $25.5M available. 

After this, we get to the decision about Harrison Smith. If the team cuts Smith, or he retires before the new league year, the Vikings would save $11.3M. Moving their available cap space to $36.8M.

Then we get to some possible extensions for players like Byron Murphy or Harrison Phillips. Small 1-2 year extensions would more than likely push the cap space to around $40M. 

Having ~40M in cap space with the biggest offseason question marks locked up would make for a very fun 2024 offseason. 

Edited January 25 by SemperFeist

[PrplChilPill]

8 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

Just some quick thoughts I jotted down.

The Vikings are currently sitting at $25M in expected cap space for 2024. 

Hypothetically, the Vikings could extend Cousins, Hunter, and Jefferson, and still create between $35M and $40M to play with in 2024. 

Spotrac lists Cousins market value at $39M per year, and Hunter’s market value at $20M per year. If we use those numbers, and say Cousins signs a 2 year, $75M contract (a small “hometown discount” from his market value), the contract breakdown could look something like;

2024: $31.5M cap hit (13% of the expected cap)
2025: $34M cap hit (13% of the projected cap)
2026 (VOID): $38M cap hit (13% of the projected cap)

That would slightly increase Cousins’ 2024 cap hit by $3M. Leaving the team with $22M in cap space. 

And let’s say Hunter agrees to a 4 year, $84M contract. Slightly above market value. A contract could be structured in a way that doesn’t create space, but also doesn’t create huge cap hits down the road;

2024: $21M cap hit (8.6% of cap)
2025: $21M cap hit (8%)
2026: $21M cap hit (7.4%)
2027: $21M cap hit (6.7%)
2028 (VOID): $14.4M cap hit

That would increase Hunter’s 2024 cap hit by $6.5M. Leaving the team with $14.5M in cap space. 

Then we get to Jefferson. It doesn’t really matter what Jefferson signs for, but I’m expecting something around 5 years, $175M. Which just tops Bosa’s deal. I found this tweet from Joel Corey, who’s a former agent,

If we apply the same scenario to Jefferson, that’ll create ~$10M in cap space. Moving the cap space back to $25.5M available. 

After this, we get to the decision about Harrison Smith. If the team cuts Smith, or he retires before the new league year, the Vikings would save $11.3M. Moving their available cap space to $36.8M.

Then we get to some possible extensions for players like Byron Murphy or Harrison Phillips. Small 1-2 year extensions would more than likely push the cap space to around $40M. 

Having ~40M in cap space with the biggest offseason question marks locked up would make for a very fun 2024 offseason. 

Sigh a very good DL, a DB, draft edge, then draft RB, WR, DB, OL in some order. That's a very good team for two years with health.

[Ozzy]

Of the highest priced 15 free agents in the NFL, the Vikings have three of them with #1 being Kirk Cousins, #5 being Danielle Hunter and #14 being Marcus Davenport.  But yes Davenport does not really count because he barely played but still.

 

The guys who are going to be paid the most will be Kirk Cousins, Danielle Hunter and Chris Jones arguably.  Unless Cousins takes a massive pay cut.  

 

These guys below are arguably in line for some of the biggest raises in the NFL compared to what they get paid currently.  

 

Justin Madubuike DT
L'Jarius Sneed CB
Antoine Winfield Jr S
Jaylon Johnson CB
Christian Wilkins DL
Baker Mayfield QB
DJ Wonnum DE
Tyler Biadasz C
Devin White ILB
Keisean Nixon CB

 

 

Would the Vikings be long term better off to pay Johnson or Sneed at CB to come in instead of paying Cousins?  I would say yes but obviously that only is the case if say Penix or Nix can be the guy at QB.  If not who knows but both of those two corners are super promising but both have been hurt on and off as well.  And would the Vikings be better off paying Wonnum the money they would have gave Hunter?  I would say no because not sure Wonnum can carry a unit and dominate at a high level like Hunter as for so long.  

 

 

 

Dane Jackson the Bills CB could be a CB who could be signed on the some what cheap side and he is solid and can play.  Another guy is KJ Britt on the rise, would love him at ILB but doubt the Bucs get rid of him with David and White both having up coming contracts and they still have Britt next year anyway.  

[SteelKing728]

I'm not sure how much shopping we'll be doing in Free Agency, but we could be in line for some comp picks with the amount of players leaving and signing a qualifying contract elsewhere.

Cousins, Dobbs, Akers, Osborn, Powell, Risner, Udoh, Hunter, Wonnum, Davenport, Hicks, Bullard, Joseph etc.

This could be the most important offseason that KAM will ever face.

[CriminalMind]

7 hours ago, SteelKing728 said:

I'm not sure how much shopping we'll be doing in Free Agency, but we could be in line for some comp picks with the amount of players leaving and signing a qualifying contract elsewhere.

Cousins, Dobbs, Akers, Osborn, Powell, Risner, Udoh, Hunter, Wonnum, Davenport, Hicks, Bullard, Joseph etc.

This could be the most important offseason that KAM will ever face.

KAM can’t be really concerned with comp picks for next year, and not improve via FAs …. Another poor showing this year (aside from getting QBOTF) might get him fired at the end of this season

[vike daddy]

A new working theory suggests Dalton Risner could dart for a big payday on the open free agent market, perhaps making his stint in Minnesota a one-year gig.

To continue Risner’s stint in purple general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah might have to dust off the checkbook. Risner’s price in 2023 was affordable, likely because the regular season was in full swing when signed on the Vikings’ dotted line. Now, Risner could chase the cash, according to former Viking Jeremiah Sirles.

“I think he played well enough; he’s going to want a bigger contract,” Sirles said on the Purple Insider podcast this week. Sirles also hinted that Adofo-Mensah may not offer such a contract because Minnesota has other roster matters to rectify.

Earlier this month, Pro Football Focus arrived at a similar conclusion regarding Risner. PFF’s Brad Spielberger projected Risner fetching a three-year deal worth a total of $24 million and $15 million in guarantees, a pricetag a bit higher than most Vikings fans have in mind. The hypothetical deal from PFF would make Risner the NFL’s eighth-highest-paid left guard.

Risner can still be considered a reasonable option to return in Minnesota for a sequel, but it’s not as ironclad as a few weeks ago. Because he was affordable and available last September doesn’t mean he’ll always be a discount guy.

https://vikingsterritory.com/2024/news/top_news/the-risner?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

[wcblack34]

2 hours ago, CriminalMind said:

KAM can’t be really concerned with comp picks for next year, and not improve via FAs …. Another poor showing this year (aside from getting QBOTF) might get him fired at the end of this season

This isn’t The Apprentice.  What about the Wilfs has shown you that they’re as trigger happy as you? 

[CriminalMind]

1 hour ago, wcblack34 said:

This isn’t The Apprentice.  What about the Wilfs has shown you that they’re as trigger happy as you? 

Firing a young GM with a year left on his small deal, i would not consider as trigger happy, especially if the team performance is not great and no QBOTF. Im just saying it’s something KAM should be aware of, and maximizing 2025 comp picks (to the detriment of the 2024 roster talent), is not something he is likely or should consider

[vike daddy]

45 minutes ago, CriminalMind said:

Firing a young GM with a year left on his small deal, i would not consider as trigger happy, especially if the team performance is not great and no QBOTF. 

i'm confused... earlier in your scenario you wrote, "Another poor showing this year (aside from getting QBOTF)."

so in this 2024 Draft hypothetical, does KAM draft a new QB or not?

[CriminalMind]

25 minutes ago, vike daddy said:

i'm confused... earlier in your scenario you wrote, "Another poor showing this year (aside from getting QBOTF)."

so in this 2024 Draft hypothetical, does KAM draft a new QB or not?

If KAM doesn’t have a QBOTF on the roster and it’s a poor showing in 2024, he is opening himself up to being dismissed after 2024 season. 

[CriminalMind]

I’ll take it further… if Vikings desire to sign a tier 1 true free agent … they need to ‘determine’ the QB a couple days before the free agency period, so that either a) Kirk extended or b) move up into top 3 of draft (where players know it’s one of those 3 QBs). Any other scenario, would likely not inspire a tier 1 free agent to consider Minny as a destination, unless the $ is unprecedented

Edited January 28 by CriminalMind

[swede700]

21 hours ago, CriminalMind said:

Firing a young GM with a year left on his small deal, i would not consider as trigger happy, especially if the team performance is not great and no QBOTF. Im just saying it’s something KAM should be aware of, and maximizing 2025 comp picks (to the detriment of the 2024 roster talent), is not something he is likely or should consider

Only incompetent franchises fire GMs after 3 years. 

Edited January 29 by swede700

[swede700]

Quote

 

142. WR K.J. OSBORN, MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Potential landing spot(s): Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns

Osborn lined up primarily in the slot in 2022 and shifted outside in 2023. He’s a WR3/4 but has been productive in a very high-volume Vikings passing attack. Untimely drops plagued him in 2023 but he’d provide solid depth for a lot of teams, and one has to imagine with the addition of first-round rookie Jordan Addison and the emergence of Brandon Powell this past season that perhaps Minnesota works a bit harder to retain the speedy Powell on a cheaper deal.

With Marquise Goodwin, James Proche and Jakeem Grant all free agents, former Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski recruits a Viking he didn’t coach but perhaps helped scout before taking the Browns head coaching job.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2024-nfl-free-agency-potential-landing-spots-for-top-quarterbacks-and-wide-receivers