squire12 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said: @CWood21 Is it possible the Vikings could realistically trade to #5? Sure. 11 + 23 + future picks (1st)/ player Its always possible, is it a good idea to mortgage that much.... tbd 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 16 hours ago, Forge said: I think it's just possible that the Texans are pretty indifferent about the guys between 16 - 40 or something. I know that there are people who view the draft similarly. I know Ben Solak has mentioned on the ringer draft pod that he's pretty checked out on the draft after the mid teens and then they are all the same for quite a bit. If someone falls that they really like, they can make a push to go get them at a lower cost than they moved down for, otherwise they can sit tight, likely take a guy that they had in the same bucket as a guy they could have gotten with their original pick, and have the Vikings second next year. Exactly what i said when i heard all the Texan hate. 20 to 40 are very similar players in MOST drafts. Some are deeper than others, but there was always Day 2 BBs loaded with players we expected to go R1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said: @CWood21 Is it possible the Vikings could realistically trade to #5? I still think it's roughly the same value. Depending on what TVC you use. Jimmy Johnson TVC Chargers Receive: #11 (1250 points) #23 (760 points) #157 (28.6 points) Total: 2038.6 points Vikings Receive: #5 (1700 points) #110 (74 points) Total: 1774 points Using the same 15% premium, that is a relative fair comparison to the Sam Darnold trade based on prevent day value, but it doesn't account for that future SRP the Jets traded that the Vikings currently can't. I'd argue that a '25 FRP >>> '19 SRP by a pretty hefty margin, so there'd need to have the '25 FRP included and the Vikings maybe get a future pick in 2025 to offset the difference? Maybe like the Chargers '25 3rd/4th going to Minnesota in return. Rich Hill TVC Chargers Receive: #11 (358 points) #23 (253 points) #108 (30 points) #129 (18 points) Total: 659 points Vikings Receive: #5 (468 points) Total: 468 points Assuming that same 41% premium from that Sam Darnold trade, you're probably looking at this as the framework for present day value. Again, it's still missing that future SRP that the Jets traded so some sort of '25 FRP/'25 4th swap or something like that is probably needed. And I'm not sure the Vikings are inclined to trade all of their picks this year for a QB. Imagine you're draft walking away with your QB and then nothing until the 5th round. That's pretty barren. F-S TVC Patriots Receive: #11 (1785 points) #23 (1411 points) #108 (627 points) Total: 3823 points Vikings Receive: #5 (2184 points) Total: 2184 points Again, using that same 76% premium that's in the ballpark of the present day value that's going to be needed, but again falling short without that future SRP to trade. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 15 hours ago, squire12 said: Also the colts didnt need a QB as they had Luck. NE does. That would likely add a premium need to get them to move back Possibly. But we're also assuming that the Patriots are indeed wanting one of the top QBs. I know I had them as a dark horse contender for Justin Fields, but I could easily see where they trade down with someone like the NY Giants for their pick this year plus future pick(s) and then take someone like Michael Penix in the late FRP, early SRP range. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 1 minute ago, CWood21 said: Possibly. But we're also assuming that the Patriots are indeed wanting one of the top QBs. I know I had them as a dark horse contender for Justin Fields, but I could easily see where they trade down with someone like the NY Giants for their pick this year plus future pick(s) and then take someone like Michael Penix in the late FRP, early SRP range. I could see that. Maybe they just don't love Maye/Daniels. Brissett can and will win them some games.. he isn't a "franchise qb" but more than capable of leading the team or being that bridge to a Penix type. I think they will take Maye, but it might be more prudent to make that trade to pick up a future 1st+. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 4 minutes ago, adamq said: I could see that. Maybe they just don't love Maye/Daniels. Brissett can and will win them some games.. he isn't a "franchise qb" but more than capable of leading the team or being that bridge to a Penix type. I think they will take Maye, but it might be more prudent to make that trade to pick up a future 1st+. I could easily see them believing they're better off with Nabers, Penix, plus a future FRP from New York rather than Maye and someone like Ladd McConkey. It's really not a stretch because we're assuming that the Patriots like all of the top QBs, and they probably won't like them all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 35 minutes ago, CWood21 said: Possibly. But we're also assuming that the Patriots are indeed wanting one of the top QBs. I know I had them as a dark horse contender for Justin Fields, but I could easily see where they trade down with someone like the NY Giants for their pick this year plus future pick(s) and then take someone like Michael Penix in the late FRP, early SRP range. NE needs a QB. Whether NE wants one of the QB they could take at 3 is an unknown. NE certainly could posture as if they do and try to extract more from Minnesota in a trade. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoboRocket Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 53 minutes ago, CWood21 said: I could easily see them believing they're better off with Nabers, Penix, plus a future FRP from New York rather than Maye and someone like Ladd McConkey. It's really not a stretch because we're assuming that the Patriots like all of the top QBs, and they probably won't like them all. You don't think New England, of all teams, is drooling at the mouth for Ladd McConkey? Heck, he's probably WR1 on their board. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PossibleCabbage Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 2 hours ago, HoboRocket said: You don't think New England, of all teams, is drooling at the mouth for Ladd McConkey? Heck, he's probably WR1 on their board. I feel like you have to assume that things have changed regarding how New England drafts now. Belichick was highly specific on roles he wanted guys to play, which resulted in some truly Strange overdrafting because the other guy who could fill that role was gone. Elliot Wolf runs the draft room now and he's probably a lot more like his dad and more like conventional Green Bay, in that he'd rather draft "an OL" than "a LG". 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 4 hours ago, CWood21 said: I still think it's roughly the same value. Depending on what TVC you use. Jimmy Johnson TVC Chargers Receive: #11 (1250 points) #23 (760 points) #157 (28.6 points) Total: 2038.6 points Vikings Receive: #5 (1700 points) #110 (74 points) Total: 1774 points Using the same 15% premium, that is a relative fair comparison to the Sam Darnold trade based on prevent day value, but it doesn't account for that future SRP the Jets traded that the Vikings currently can't. I'd argue that a '25 FRP >>> '19 SRP by a pretty hefty margin, so there'd need to have the '25 FRP included and the Vikings maybe get a future pick in 2025 to offset the difference? Maybe like the Chargers '25 3rd/4th going to Minnesota in return. Rich Hill TVC Chargers Receive: #11 (358 points) #23 (253 points) #108 (30 points) #129 (18 points) Total: 659 points Vikings Receive: #5 (468 points) Total: 468 points Assuming that same 41% premium from that Sam Darnold trade, you're probably looking at this as the framework for present day value. Again, it's still missing that future SRP that the Jets traded so some sort of '25 FRP/'25 4th swap or something like that is probably needed. And I'm not sure the Vikings are inclined to trade all of their picks this year for a QB. Imagine you're draft walking away with your QB and then nothing until the 5th round. That's pretty barren. F-S TVC Patriots Receive: #11 (1785 points) #23 (1411 points) #108 (627 points) Total: 3823 points Vikings Receive: #5 (2184 points) Total: 2184 points Again, using that same 76% premium that's in the ballpark of the present day value that's going to be needed, but again falling short without that future SRP to trade. now do incog's TVC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SodeeWater_Cheezburger Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Another thing the Vikings could possibly do is bypass the Patriots and move up to #2. I'm not sure what each pick is worth, but it seems like the teams don't always stick to a particular trade value chart anyway. If the Commies aren't all that excited about any of the top four QB's in the draft after Williams, a package of 3 first round picks combined with Penix or Nix might look pretty good to them. If nothing else, having them as another possible option (even if they had to add a little more) could keep the Patriots from thinking they could absolutely fleece the Vikings for their only opportunity to get a QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minutemancl Posted March 17 Author Share Posted March 17 4 minutes ago, SodeeWater_Cheezburger said: Another thing the Vikings could possibly do is bypass the Patriots and move up to #2. I'm not sure what each pick is worth, but it seems like the teams don't always stick to a particular trade value chart anyway. If the Commies aren't all that excited about any of the top four QB's in the draft after Williams, a package of 3 first round picks combined with Penix or Nix might look pretty good to them. If nothing else, having them as another possible option (even if they had to add a little more) could keep the Patriots from thinking they could absolutely fleece the Vikings for their only opportunity to get a QB. They traded Sam Howell. They are locked into 2 and taking a QB. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SodeeWater_Cheezburger Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 3 minutes ago, minutemancl said: They traded Sam Howell. They are locked into 2 and taking a QB. What if they don't like any of the top guys? Maybe they would be better off taking those picks and grabbing Penix or Nix later. Just a thought. They may very well end up doing what you said and just take a guy at 2. I'm just throwing out some possibilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Acgott Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 8 minutes ago, SodeeWater_Cheezburger said: What if they don't like any of the top guys? Maybe they would be better off taking those picks and grabbing Penix or Nix later. Just a thought. They may very well end up doing what you said and just take a guy at 2. I'm just throwing out some possibilities. Then they wouldn’t have traded Howell. Too big of a risk to trade down and hope to grab another QB. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SodeeWater_Cheezburger Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 6 minutes ago, Acgott said: Then they wouldn’t have traded Howell. Too big of a risk to trade down and hope to grab another QB. That's a good point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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