vike daddy Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 (edited) Just to make it more interesting.... I think NE should fleece AZ into trading 4 for 3, with the Pats threatening them to take Harrison. Which would be a fine move on their part at 3. Then NE trades with Minny at 4 for their package to get multiple picks, plus what AZ gave up. To sweeten the deal, the NFL penalizes Atlanta for tampering by swapping their 8 to MN for their 11. Winning! Edited March 15 by vike daddy 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Tso Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 47 minutes ago, Duluther said: #11, #23 ————— Justin Herbert This allows Harbaugh to select the best player in the draft JJ McCarthey, at #5 and to also rebuild around JJ in his way. It would take a Deshaun Watson package to get Herbert. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vike daddy Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, tyler735 said: Doubt New England passes on a QB at #3. NE has some very good choices in front of them at 3: * Stay at 3 and draft a QB. * Stay at 3 and draft Harrison Jr. * Trade down for multiple picks. All are very viable choices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede700 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 2 minutes ago, General Tso said: It would take a Deshaun Watson package to get Herbert. And the Chargers would take a $130M dead cap hit...not gonna happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ_Eaglesfan Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Chargers should pull a 2021 Eagles now. Trade out to 11 and get another first. Trade back up to 8-9 and give up a third to get Odunze and an extra first. Still fill a major need while also getting the extra draft capital later on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minutemancl Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 1 minute ago, vike daddy said: NE has some very good choices in front of them at 3: * Stay at 3 and draft a QB. * Stay at 3 and draft Harrison Jr. * Trade down for multiple picks. All are very viable choices. I saw a proposed 3 team trade that I thought was interesting. Patriots give up 3, 34 and receive: picks 6, 23, 108 Giants give up 6 and receive: picks 11, 34 Vikings give up 11, 23, 108 and receive: pick 3 Patriots move back and pick up some capital, but still are in range for one of the top-3 WRs. The Giants move back and acquire a bunch of capital, bowing out of the QB race. The Vikings get into the top 3 for their QB. Won't happen, but I thought it was interesting. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 I could easily see the Chargers trading #5 for #11 / #23 That'd put them in position to do something like: #11 - Terrion Arnold #23 - Jackson Powers-Johnson #37 - Ladd McConkey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 (edited) per the best, fact-based, TVC out there (https://overthecap.com/draft-trade-value-chart ) 1.23 = 1411 2.42 = 1106 delta of 305 is equivalent to pick 204. A future 2nd is worth a lot more. So, although it looks lopsided using your grandfather's TVC, Houston comes out a winner (as do most teams that trade back/down). Edited March 15 by incognito_man 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NudeTayne Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 4 minutes ago, incognito_man said: per the best, fact-based, TVC out there (https://overthecap.com/draft-trade-value-chart ) 1.23 = 1411 2.42 = 1106 delta of 305 is equivalent to pick 204. A future 2nd is worth a lot more. So, although it looks lopsided using your grandfather's TVC, Houston comes out a winner (as do most teams that trade back/down). So I can trade you pick 19 and 20 for your pick 1? Or picks 65 and 66 for your pick 8? That's what that value chart says is fair. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Just now, NudeTayne said: So I can trade you pick 19 and 20 for your pick 1? Or picks 65 and 66 for your pick 8? That's what that value chart says is fair. Yep. I don't understand why more people don't follow the actual data on this stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NudeTayne Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 5 minutes ago, incognito_man said: Yep. I don't understand why more people don't follow the actual data on this stuff. By more people you mean every team in the NFL. Absolutely zero teams follow this chart. Even this trade with the Vikings doesn't really follow this chart. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PossibleCabbage Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 I mean, one of the reasons draft trades happen is that teams are each using different charts. There are multipliers involved in trades for a specific draft include things like "it costs extra to cross a tier", "motivated buyers pay more, motivated sellers get less" and "your actual picks are rarely clustered in the draft" (Like hypothetically a team might take 49, 50, and 51 for #1 but you probably don't have all three of those picks. Of course, empirically it seems like teams prefer not to hold a bunch of picks in a row and generally trade one of them. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 5 minutes ago, NudeTayne said: By more people you mean every team in the NFL. Absolutely zero teams follow this chart. Even this trade with the Vikings doesn't really follow this chart. ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minutemancl Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 3 minutes ago, NudeTayne said: By more people you mean every team in the NFL. Absolutely zero teams follow this chart. Even this trade with the Vikings doesn't really follow this chart. That's not as bad as Ben Baldwin's chart. Open Source Football: NFL Draft Value Chart According to his chart, the most valuable picks in the draft are 12, 14, and 16 overall. A fair trade using this model would be picks 1 and 90 in exchange for 16. Trading pick 1 straight up for pick 58 would be an even trade. I understand there is a lot of work that goes into some of these, but at a certain point, you need to step back and evaluate. Maybe the data isn't telling you what you think it is telling you if your result is something this ridiculous. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 (edited) 22 minutes ago, incognito_man said: per the best, fact-based, TVC out there (https://overthecap.com/draft-trade-value-chart ) 1.23 = 1411 2.42 = 1106 delta of 305 is equivalent to pick 204. A future 2nd is worth a lot more. So, although it looks lopsided using your grandfather's TVC, Houston comes out a winner (as do most teams that trade back/down). A less than 12-fold difference between the 7th round and 1st overall pick doesn't pass the smell test. That may be how the value shook out based on the 4 year sample of rookie deals they were evaluating, but no team would trade Caleb Williams for half the 7th round and therefore that chart doesn't work as a rubric. It's an interesting observation that the 7th rounders performed as well as they did, but that's like someone asking, "I bought a house, think I got a good deal?" and you responding "Technically you could stack 12 cardboard boxes together for the same effect". Even if you're right, that's not the question. Edited March 15 by ramssuperbowl99 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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