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Texans trade 23rd pick to Vikings for 42nd, 188th, and 2025 2nd


minutemancl

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12 minutes ago, General Tso said:

I, as a totally unbiased fan, think the Vikings will finish last in this division, so that future pick could be valuable.

We can bucket the pick into a 1-8 range, assuming the Vikings are one of the worst teams in the NFL, and do the math from there.

Here's the chart:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_trade_value.htm

23 is worth 760
42 is worth 480
188 is worth 16
232 is worth less than 2 (let's say 2, it's a rounding error)

 

 

The difference between the value here is 266, and that comes out to the top of the 3rd round. So in other words, the Vikings traded a pick expected near the top of the 2nd round in 2025 for a pick that would have 2024 value near the 3rd round. They're paying a full round penalty.

I'm surprised, because my initial reaction without doing the math was that the Texans settled for a slightly lower premium. Doesn't look like it at all. Good deal for Houston.

 

EDIT: To be fair to the Vikings, the value chart kind of doesn't apply with QBs, so if you get your franchise QB and you pay a standard market premium you probably feel okay about it.  My final opinion is the Vikings paid the full sticker price, but that's a reasonable deal for both sides given the context.

Edited by ramssuperbowl99
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6 minutes ago, Duluther said:

#11, #23
—————

Justin Herbert

 

This allows Harbaugh to select the best player in the draft JJ McCarthey, at #5 and to also rebuild around JJ in his way.

 

that would be hilarious. 

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1 hour ago, minutemancl said:

Per the Rich Hill trade value chart, pick 3 is worth 514, 4 is worth 491, and 5 is worth 468.

Picks 11 and 23 combined are worth 603. Given the QB tax that is added into to big trade ups for QBs, the Vikings now theoretically have enough pick value to move up. Now it is all about finding a trade partner and making sure your guy is available.

Based on that, it almost makes me wonder if they are hoping to get up to #2.  A lot has been floated out there that they love McCarthy, but could that just be a smokescreen and the prize they really want is Maye?

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1 minute ago, SodeeWater_Cheezburger said:

Based on that, it almost makes me wonder if they are hoping to get up to #2.  A lot has been floated out there that they love McCarthy, but could that just be a smokescreen and the prize they really want is Maye?

Reports are that Chicago is not moving out of 1 and Washington is not moving out of 2. The highest Minnesota would likely be able to get is 3.

If they're targeting a specific QB, they'd need to wait to trade up until draft day. Can't get to 3 targeting Maye only to watch him go #2 because information you got was bad, or something. If you like Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy, then you can get up to 3 or even 4 anytime between now and the draft and be happy.

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Very strange. Russell Wilson made the Super Bowl in year two, Goff in year three, Purdy in year two...Stroud is better now than all of them were.

Not that there is a player to be for a first rounder right now, but I think it would have made more sense to trade that first for an established player if you're going to trade it.

The Texans should think of themselves as Super Bowl contenders for 2024.

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2 minutes ago, SodeeWater_Cheezburger said:

Based on that, it almost makes me wonder if they are hoping to get up to #2.  A lot has been floated out there that they love McCarthy, but could that just be a smokescreen and the prize they really want is Maye?

Draft Tek trade value chart:

#11: 1,250 | #23: 760 = 2,010

#4 = 1,800

#5 = 1,700

You typically pay a +20% premium to move up for a QB

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8 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

Vikings are definitely moving up. Lets say they move from 11 to 3. Do they pay the same price the 49ers did? 49ers in 2021 moved up from 12 to 3 for three 1st round picks & a 3rd round pick 

Not sure, did that work out well for SF?

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28 minutes ago, Duluther said:

#11, #23
—————

Justin Herbert

 

This allows Harbaugh to select the best player in the draft JJ McCarthey, at #5 and to also rebuild around JJ in his way.

 

Would be the first kind thing they did for Herbert all offseason.

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