minutemancl Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 As a lot of people have said, this is really poor value for the Texans. Throw out that late round pick swap, because it is very low stakes, and you've got 23 for 42 and a 2025 2nd. That is valuing a 2025 2nd at the equivalent of pick 55 in this year's draft, which it definitely is not, given we don't know where the Vikings will be picking next year and it is a full year removed. Normally you value future picks at the lowest value of a pick in the current year's draft, which would put it more around pick 64 this year. The value difference between the 2 is relatively significant- pick 55 this year is 101 while pick 64 this year is 80. That's 20 points of value Houston loses in draft capital, and they do it weeks before the draft happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoboRocket Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Oh heck yeah! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tyler735 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 JJ McCarthy about to be a Minnesota Viking after they trade again for the Chargers pick. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich7sena Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 I think the Vikings will use this pick for their QB. They may move up a few spots, but I have always been of the position that after the top 3 QBs, none will go before the top 15. It does feel like Houston could have got more, though. That said, there usually isn't a huge difference between the quality of player in the late first and early to mid second. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TitanSlim Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Texans dropping that far and potentially knocking themselves out of range for a number of those 2nd tier WRs is a bit rough. I’m breathing a sigh of relief as a Titans fan tough. Speaking of being a Titans fan, does the #7 pick interest you Minnesota?👀 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Doing this prior to the draft is stupid for the Texans. Really stupid. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minutemancl Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 5 minutes ago, RaidersAreOne said: Do we ever really see pure pick trades this far before the draft?? We did in 2018, when the Bills leveraged Cordy Glenn to move up in the 1st before the draft day trade that ultimately landed Josh Allen. This is a move before THE move, which I imagine doesn't happen until draft day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Tso Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Just now, minutemancl said: We did in 2018, when the Bills leveraged Cordy Glenn to move up in the 1st before the draft day trade that ultimately landed Josh Allen. This is a move before THE move, which I imagine doesn't happen until draft day. Also when the Saints and Eagles traded picks in 2022. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SotanKing Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 2 minutes ago, ET80 said: I... Don't get this one. If Vikings suck this year, then the 2025 Vikings 2nd would be in 30's which would make this a pretty good trade for Texans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 2 minutes ago, minutemancl said: As a lot of people have said, this is really poor value for the Texans. Throw out that late round pick swap, because it is very low stakes, and you've got 23 for 42 and a 2025 2nd. That is valuing a 2025 2nd at the equivalent of pick 55 in this year's draft, which it definitely is not, given we don't know where the Vikings will be picking next year and it is a full year removed. Normally you value future picks at the lowest value of a pick in the current year's draft, which would put it more around pick 64 this year. The value difference between the 2 is relatively significant- pick 55 this year is 101 while pick 64 this year is 80. That's 20 points of value Houston loses in draft capital, and they do it weeks before the draft happens. It’s not just about value. Putting aside that that value chart isn’t really scientific and gets thrown around too much - the Texans have no idea who’s going to be there at 23. One of those great tackles could fall. They could grab a high caliber CB. Maybe they have first dibs at WR4. One of the OTs. Like, you never know who can fall. And even if they don’t fall all the way to 23, maybe they fall to 15? 18? 20? Now they’re out of range for a trade up, barring giving up even more than they just got. I get that Minnesota obviously has a plan in mind, and this exact offer likely wouldn’t be there on draft day, but they’re really playing a low floor game right now if they think they couldn’t grab a future 2nd from another team trading back that far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 This trade makes sense if the Vikings are picking top 10 next year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaidersAreOne Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Soooo are they trading up for a QB then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 20 minutes ago, General Tso said: Is it just me or is that compensation really tame for Houston? Or the league has finally realized that future year picks are worth mostly the same as present year picks, and the standard full round depreciation penalty fans expect is an absolutely insane premium. 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nbanflguy Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 11 minutes ago, SotanKing said: I think it's a fair trade overall. Vikings 2nd in 2025 could be quite valuable...it can be even in 30's too. I dont think so. "Bad" Vikings teams pretty much bottom out at 7-9 and now 7-10. Addison, Hock, JJ, and Aaron Jones arent going 5-12. Barring health of course Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 I’m guessing this move is for McCarthy. There’s not even a guarantee Maye/Daniels get to #3. One of them will, but we’re not sure which. I doubt Minnesota makes this move on the off chance Washington doesn’t pick their guy, Washington doesn’t pick their guy AND New England doesn’t, or one of those two are willing to trade down. Gotta figure they think they assume they have a good chance of getting their guy with this trade. Or maybe they’ve already had discussions with certain teams about a trade up, and they’ve iterated that they won’t trade down unless it’s for multiple firsts? Who knows. Just guess work, but things got interesting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.