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3.88 - Marshawn Lloyd [RB; USC]


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A blurb regarding Lloyd from Sando's latest draft review article (The Athletic)

Quote

“They did not need him, but with (AJ) Dillon in the last year of his deal, and not knowing what Josh Jacobs will give them, they get a player who is more like Aaron Jones in his skill set,” an exec said. “I was hoping we could get him.”

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I don't know how this kid will do.  His highlight runs all look the same.  Read option.  Counter.  Start inside.  Bounce outside.  Enormous holes.

I see the size, acceleration and speed.  No clue on vision as @Norm could gain yards through those holes.

He isn't seeing lanes like that to run in the NFL.  His skillset though looks like it could be quite good.

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37 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I don't know how this kid will do.  His highlight runs all look the same.  Read option.  Counter.  Start inside.  Bounce outside.  Enormous holes.

I see the size, acceleration and speed.  No clue on vision as @Norm could gain yards through those holes.

He isn't seeing lanes like that to run in the NFL.  His skillset though looks like it could be quite good.

watch his south carolina stuff

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Posted (edited)

Gute totally has a type. 220lbs+ RBs.

Josh Jacobs - 4.64s & 223lbs (Speed is overlooked because he is NFL proven)

Marshawn Lloyd - 4.46s & 220lbs (3rd Round)

Jarveon Howard - 4.46s & 219lbs (Undrafted)

Lew Nichols - 4.61s & 220lbs (7th round)

Ellis Merriweather - 4.68s & 220lbs (Undrafted)

Emanuel Wilson - 4.57s & 226lbs (Undrafted)

AJ Dillon - 4.53s & 247lbs (2nd Round)

Patrick Taylor - 4.57s & 217lbs (Undrafted) Not quite 220 but close enough.

Edited by Chili
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5 minutes ago, Chili said:

Gute totally has a type. 220lbs+ RBs.

Josh Jacobs - 4.64s & 223lbs (Speed is overlooked because he is NFL proven)

Marshawn Lloyd - 4.46s & 220lbs (3rd Round)

Jarveon Howard - 4.46s & 219lbs (Undrafted)

Lew Nichols - 4.61s & 220lbs (7th round)

Ellis Merriweather - 4.68s & 220lbs (Undrafted)

Emanuel Wilson - 4.57s & 226lbs (Undrafted)

AJ Dillon - 4.53s & 247lbs (3rd Round)

Patrick Taylor - 4.57s & 217lbs (Undrafted) Not quite 220 but close enough.

Ajd was a 2nd round pick

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On 5/2/2024 at 12:02 PM, vegas492 said:

I don't know how this kid will do.  His highlight runs all look the same.  Read option.  Counter.  Start inside.  Bounce outside.  Enormous holes.

I see the size, acceleration and speed.  No clue on vision as @Norm could gain yards through those holes.

He isn't seeing lanes like that to run in the NFL.  His skillset though looks like it could be quite good.

As Incog noted, I'm guessing South Carolina tape might be more representative?  I doubt that team was blowing up SEC defensive lines with massive holes all the time? Averaged 5.1 ypc there: good, albeit not the >7 ypc from last year.  I would also trust that Gute and his scouts watched more than highlight runs.  They watched all the tight-quarters runs too, those that don't show up on our highlight cutups.  :):).

 "Start inside, bounce outside", I want that capacity from my backs!  Seems like many of Jones' best runs probed the inside, then bounced outside.  If you took his ypc for runs between the tackle, not sure it would be that appealing?  Whereas Dillon's inability to probe inside but then bounce outside for good runs, isn't that pretty much why his ypc is low?   

Tangent:  ypc is a great and historic stat.  Obviously explosive plays can change games.  But I admit I sometimes wish they posted median ypc.  A guy might provoke a bunch of punts with crummy runs, only to break one long one and come out with a good ypc.   

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2 hours ago, craig said:

As Incog noted, I'm guessing South Carolina tape might be more representative?  I doubt that team was blowing up SEC defensive lines with massive holes all the time? Averaged 5.1 ypc there: good, albeit not the >7 ypc from last year.  I would also trust that Gute and his scouts watched more than highlight runs.  They watched all the tight-quarters runs too, those that don't show up on our highlight cutups.  :):).

 "Start inside, bounce outside", I want that capacity from my backs!  Seems like many of Jones' best runs probed the inside, then bounced outside.  If you took his ypc for runs between the tackle, not sure it would be that appealing?  Whereas Dillon's inability to probe inside but then bounce outside for good runs, isn't that pretty much why his ypc is low?   

Tangent:  ypc is a great and historic stat.  Obviously explosive plays can change games.  But I admit I sometimes wish they posted median ypc.  A guy might provoke a bunch of punts with crummy runs, only to break one long one and come out with a good ypc.   

The Median YPC is ALMOST always 3. Even in really high efficiency seasons like the one Jones had, 55%ish of his runs went for 3 or fewer yards. 

AJ Dillon: Mean: 3.4. Median: 3

Aaron Jones: Mean: 4.6. Median: 3

Hag2L0W.png

**FWIW Jones was 1x 4 yard carry away from having a median of 3.5

** FWIW Jones 2x 4 yard carries away from having a median of 4. 

** FWIW Jones was something like 200x 5 yard carries from having a median of 4.5. 

+++++

If the NFL started recording captured yardage down to the tenth of a yard, this becomes a much more interesting stat, but in it's current revision, it doesn't move the needle much at all. 

+++++

Honestly, just look at rushing success rate. It will help you reach the conclusion you're looking for and be a lot less noisy. 

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On 5/3/2024 at 9:37 AM, Brat&Beer said:

Packers gave Lloyd, a USC running back, the same number 32 that OJ Simpson wore. I guess that's okay for now.

Gotta stay alive until 2043 when we can get a Naked Gun reboot with George Clooney and MarShawn Lloyd.

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