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GWT: Week 20 Jaguars @ Patriots


gopherwrestler

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots  

139 members have voted

  1. 1. Who Wins?

    • Jacksonville Jaguars
    • New England Patriots


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20 minutes ago, RollEagles said:

I'm not so sure I would feel comfortable if I was a Patriots fan right now.

Personally, I’m never “comfortable” in the playoffs. I wasn’t even comfortable versus Tennessee. A lot of the more rational fans feel similarly, even if picking the Pats to win. 

I was pretty comfortable before taking two L’s to the Jets (2010) and Giants (2007). Didn’t work well. 

I don’t think a majority of the logical fans feel comfortable at all.

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3 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Personally, I’m never “comfortable” in the playoffs. I wasn’t even comfortable versus Tennessee. A lot of the more rational fans feel similarly, even if picking the Pats to win. 

I was pretty comfortable before taking two L’s to the Jets (2010) and Giants (2007). Didn’t work well. 

I don’t think a majority of the logical fans feel comfortable at all.

The thing that really gives me pause a bit is how the Patriots handled that Tennessee team. For the most part, the Jaguars and the Titans are built with the same MO. I would probably even give them the edge running the football (at least when they're not being stupid playing Murray over Henry). That was my biggest question for the Patriots was whether they can shut him down. For the opening drive, it looked like they might have fits. But then they did their Patriot thing and the flood gates opened. They contained Mariota, they shut down Henry, and that was really all she wrote. Blake (amazingly) was probably more consistent than MM all season long, but I'm still not 100% confident in him going against Belichick's defense which has known to confuse even the best quarterbacks in the game.

Defensively, I've already said how i feel about the trouble that the Pats backs can cause out of the backfield. But there's also a bit of a...hush hush thing about the Jaguars front four...it hasn't been as dominant as it was early in the year. Whether its the level of offense they played, or teams game planning differently, or the team slowing the rush down because they faced mobile quarterbacks in the later part of the year (Brissett, MM, Wilson, even Jimmy G did a lot of boots in that game), it just hasn't been as relentless as they were early in the year. I think a big part of it too was Dante Fowler, who appeared to have really come on (or coming on) at the beginning of the season. With him causing havoc, the Jaguars had four players able to rush: Yannick, Malik, Calais, and Fowler (on obvious pass downs). But towards the end, he kind of tailed off a bit. Before the bye week, Fowler had 5.5 sacks and 2 FF. Week 9 through 17? He's had 2.5 sacks, 0 FF...and that includes the two playoff games (though he did make a big stop after he was on the ground to prevent Taylor from getting a 1st down late in the game on that play Tyrod got hurt).

If Fowler can cause havoc as that 4th rusher, this defense will really put some stress on Brady because you have to double Calais. If he can't win his one-on-ones, it makes it tougher to really come at Brady from all angles.

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@Speedyg

Agreed, I think that Titans offense compares favorably to the Jaguars offense. I’d give the edge to Tennessee in almost every department or at least it’s a push. Not that the Jaguars offense is inept, but as far as concern goes, you’re right, it’s the defense that will be the bigger problem. 

You’ve got a good point about Fowler. Having him at top form will definitely put stress on things, but on top of that is the Patriots’ right tackle position. Waddle doesn’t look like he’ll be playing and is better than Fleming in pass protection IMO. Both are downgrades from Cannon. Now obviously they can assign help when Fleming’s facing Yannick or Calais, but that limits the offense in certain respects. The Patriots did it against some of the better pass rushers they played this year, but it’ll be an issue if Jacksonville’s getting pressure from everywhere. 

The Jaguars offense will have to capitalize on field position in the event that the defense creates turnovers. They’re capable for sure.

 

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1 hour ago, iPwn said:

I’d take Cole over Lee as well, just based on reliability of hands.

All four of our healthy guys average about a yard per snap though, so insofar as production is concerned, they’re somewhat interchangeable.

this year he had a lot of drops but you look at last year and it was way better. theyre asked to do different things but lee undoubtedly is the #1 guy without Robinson and while cole is prob the better deep threat with lees injuries robbing him of some stuff i think lee is much better all around.

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38 minutes ago, Manny/Patrick said:

Do you guys feel like the Pats will watch the Jimmy G game and try to mimic how he played. The quick releases were working very well that game

There's really been two games where the Jaguars D looked vulnerable...the 49ers game with Jimmy G, and amazingly, the Cardinals game with Blaine Gabbert. Both teams (and QBs) relied a lot on quick passes, which prevents the Jags front four from causing too much havoc. The 49ers game had the added dimension of the boots and Juscheck at FB that created some mismatch with Poz off PA passes, but the Cards really didn't do that, so that might be closer to what Brady does. I really have no idea why the Jaguars backed off so much vs. the Cardinals, but they did and they looked very vulnerable in that game. They also used their rookie TE (he was a converted receiver, IIRC but i don't recall his name) a lot in the seam/post. They eventually tightened their coverage up in the 2nd half, but then they had some busts on the back end that Gabbert was able to punish.

If I'm the Patriots, those two games are probably the games I look at on how to attack the Jaguars D. 

 

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3 hours ago, GSUeagles14 said:

is fournette their best player? people like to dog bortles but he can be a competent qb. He can get the ball to  Marqise lee who is extremely talented when healthy, and Westbrook has a huge ceiling. heck, even hurns is a talented guy with a big body. That wr group is no joke.

People forget there is a reason bortles was a top 5 pick. The guy has talent, it's just taken some time to put it together. Some guys progress faster than others. He has cleaned up his release; from what I can tell he got rid of that weird hitch in his backswing. It's made the ball come out of his hands more consistently and I think his confidence has skyrocketed. He wasn't trusting his eyes because he wasn't trusting himself to make the throw accurately. Now that has changed you are seeing why he was drafted so highly. Hes really been playing well since week 12 with the exception of those two games week 16 and 17. 

I remember Jim harbaugh saying that sometimes he didn't feel like he was actually playing football until he had been hit once early in the game. I think bortles is the type of guy that needs to settle into a game on the first few drives. If he turns the ball over early then it tends to snowball on him. If he has a couple positive plays early then he opens it up later. He's been doing a really good job of reading the field. That one play to yeldon on the swing route showed me that he can have that high level functioning needed to succeed in the NFL. I like that he was taking his shots down the field, it's something that will keep teams honest and will let them pound the rock inside. 

How healthy is fournette ?

I hope the pats go and watch the 49ers film just so they can really feel bad about trading away garoppolo even more than they already do. A lot of it was Jimmy just beating telvin Smith to the spot with the football over the middle. How awesome would it be to see Brian hoyer finish this game out? 

 

Jags grind out the win 23-17. 

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9 hours ago, GSUeagles14 said:

is fournette their best player? people like to dog bortles but he can be a competent qb. He can get the ball to  Marqise lee who is extremely talented when healthy, and Westbrook has a huge ceiling. heck, even hurns is a talented guy with a big body. That wr group is no joke.

Yes but their passing game is very dependent on their running game. Bortles has success throwing the football when the run game is established and he can take PA shots down field.

In Bortles wins this season, here are his long passes: 20, 35, 31, 52, 37, 36, 28, 32, 75, 73, 20 & 45.

In his losses, 29, 28, 22, 24, 32, 23.

So one game with a pass deeper than 30 yards. He's not the QB who's going to look off Safeties and LB's. His short passes are designed and calculated. He loves to take shots when the running game is rolling.

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Belichick will scheme something up to exploit some weakness Jax has using some random *** player from Eastern Djibouti that no one even knows about like he always does and New England will go on to win comfortably.

The sky is blue 

Water is wet

Belichick out-coaches everyone

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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10 hours ago, Manny/Patrick said:

Do you guys feel like the Pats will watch the Jimmy G game and try to mimic how he played. The quick releases were working very well that game

 

10 hours ago, Speedyg said:

There's really been two games where the Jaguars D looked vulnerable...the 49ers game with Jimmy G, and amazingly, the Cardinals game with Blaine Gabbert. Both teams (and QBs) relied a lot on quick passes, which prevents the Jags front four from causing too much havoc. The 49ers game had the added dimension of the boots and Juscheck at FB that created some mismatch with Poz off PA passes, but the Cards really didn't do that, so that might be closer to what Brady does. I really have no idea why the Jaguars backed off so much vs. the Cardinals, but they did and they looked very vulnerable in that game. They also used their rookie TE (he was a converted receiver, IIRC but i don't recall his name) a lot in the seam/post. They eventually tightened their coverage up in the 2nd half, but then they had some busts on the back end that Gabbert was able to punish.

If I'm the Patriots, those two games are probably the games I look at on how to attack the Jaguars D. 

 

Both games the Jags D played a lot of off coverage.   Seeing as how ARI and SF showed how to counter the D I really would be shocked to see off coverage except on 3rd and really long (15+) to keep Brady from killing them with short stuff.   

Much like the 2015 DEN D that secondary excels when they are in attack mode.  If the guys make catches like AB x 2 and Bell for his TD catch you tip your cap.   95/100 times they won’t.   

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6 hours ago, dtait93 said:

Belichick will scheme something up to exploit some weakness Jax has using some random *** player from Eastern Djibouti that no one even knows about like he always does and New England will go on to win comfortably.

The sky is blue 

Water is wet

Belichick out-coaches everyone

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

xDxD

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