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Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2018 (Tampa Bay at 1)


goldfishwars

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11 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

11. Cleveland Browns

bakermayfieldisexcited.jpg?quality=95&w=

Pre-Draft Needs:

QB, OT, DL, CB

What They Had Heading into the Draft:

1. 1

1. 4

2. 33

2. 35

2. 64

4. 114

5. 150

6. 175

6. 188

7. 247

 

What They Had Leaving The Draft:

1. 1. Baker Mayfield  [ QB ] Oklahoma

1. 4. Denzel Ward  [ CB ] Ohio State

2. 33. Austin Corbett  [ G ] Nevada

2. 35. Nick Chubb  [ RB ] Georgia

3. 67. Chad Thomas  [ DE ] Miami (FL)

4. 105. Antonio Callaway  [ WR ] Florida

5. 150. Genard Avery  [ LB ] Memphis

6. 175. Damion Ratley  [ WR ] Texas A&M

6. 188. Simeon Thomas  [ CB ] Louisiana

 

Best Thing About This Draft:

I liked that they took the QB they liked the most, not the guy they felt compelled to take. Mayfield was frequently compared to Johnny Manziel, rightly or wrongly (wrongly) and that alone makes it a gutsy move, let alone the size and personality stuff. It's kind cool that they drafted the analytics darling but, presumably, did so for footballing reasons based purely on the old school 'football guys' within in the Cleveland brain trust. Perhaps Mayfield will simply get the fans and his teammates pumped up in a way that Darnold with his cooler demeanour perhaps wouldn’t do. It’s a bit like Josh Allen in Buffalo, this just feels like a nice fit for reasons that have nothing to do with actual football. On the field he's an accurate thrower who thrives in chaos and has an unnatural sixth sense for escaping pressure. He’s also shown more arm strength than what used to be a criticism of him and is deadly on tight window throws with A+ ball placement. If you take him, you’ve got to embrace an abrasive side of his personality that threatens to overboil at times. Because his teammates will rally to it if his time at Oklahoma is anything to go by.

I'm a huge Darnold fan, so I'm still extremely upset. I do like that they went with their QB at #1 instead of doing something ridiculously stupid like a position player at #1 and then drafting the 2nd/3rd best QB in the draft at #4. There's a good chance that they don't get either Mayfield or Darnold if they drafted Barkley at #1.

11 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

Worst Thing About This Draft:

They had an absolute arsenal of draft capital to work with at the top of the draft and I like what they did in general, some of it was a little bit up and down.

I 100% agree with this thought as well.

11 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

You can argue the Mayfield pick, I’m fine with it. Ward over Chubb was also a minor surprise and I love Ward. I think, based purely on what the Eagles achieved last year, I would rather have a horde of pass-rushers than a really good corner who fits a need. That’s kinda nitpicky though.

To them, I think that it boiled down to this: They had Ward and Chubb graded as completely equal. Their CB situation is a disaster, but Emmanuel Ogbah is a very good DE to go opposite of Myles Garrett. I think it makes more sense to get that "blue chip" guy at CB and role with Ogbah/Garrett as their 1-2 punch, especially on an 0-16 roster. They can't afford to double up on strength right now unfortunately. They had no one who was able to play man/press man at all last year and it showed. Teams threw on them at will last year, and they were middle of the pack in pass rush.

11 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

It’s kind of similar for different reasons with Austin Corbett and Nick Chubb. Both are very good players, I just always envisioned Corbett playing inside, where he looked great at the Senior Bowl, but that’s where we’ve seen the heaviest investments in Cleveland. Plus, they traded for Carlos Hyde before the draft and have a pretty established 3rd down back. Maybe there’s a really good short term plan that's not obvious right now, or just a solid long-term one that’ll work them in when they’re ready.

I was actually angry at the Corbett pick, as I preferred Will Hernandez if they were going with an interior OL. That said, they are committing to playing Corbett at OT. A few years ago, I was also mad when they got some Nevada kid in the 2nd to play OG, and now I love Bitonio. Hyde is very injury prone, so I REALLY wanted a RB at #35, but I preferred Guice, but I actually really like Chubb here too. 

11 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

Late Round Gem:

Genard Avery – LBC got me onto him, he lined up off the ball and on the edge at Memphis. He’s like a missile in the run game and has some skill as an outside pass-rusher too. I like him quite a bit more than Joe Schobert who was probably a similar prospect coming out of Wisconsin last year and played a lot of snaps in Cleveland in his first season. 

What Else?

Ward is a slightly undersized, but plays big at the position and does it with an advanced intelligence. Plus, he has ridiculous leaping ability which allows him to compete with bigger receivers in the air. He allowed just 30% of passes to be completed in his direction over the past two years at Ohio State. I wonder if they want to see Austin Corbett can live at tackle, that’s where the help is needed after Joe Thomas retired. He’s another easy moving lineman, with light balanced feet but plays with an edge and has enough core strength to drop back on. Nick Chubb, for my money, was the best inside runner in the draft. It’s a miracle he can even walk, let alone test out like one of the best athletes coming out.

I couldn't quite get a feel for Chad Thomas. He looked like a long, athletic and powerful five tech/LDE on tape and then tested out not great. He’s got some inside/out versatility and could be a useful run defender if nothing else. Antonio Callaway is a explosive talent at wide receiver, but he was a car crash at being a human even before the weed bust. I just don’t think Dorsey can resist a bad boy. Damion Ratley had an insane 23 yards per catch at Texas A&M, he’s a deep threat and very little else at this point - but a good one. Simeon Thomas I don't really know other than he's a 6'3 dude who plays defensive back. 

Pretty fair synopsis all the way around here. I graded us as a C overall, because I was disappointed with all of the draft capital that we had and wanted/expected more. Throw in the extremely questionable Mayfield over Darnold pick, and you have the #1 and #4 picks and don't end up with Darnold, Barkely, or B. Chubb. That's extremely disappointing, although I prefer Ward over Chubb for reasons above. Corbett they are planning on grooming to play OT. Chad Thomas they are drafting as a former 5 star athlete who underachieved but showed flashes as an interior pass rusher. They are hoping to move him inside as a penetrating DT/pass rush guy. We all knew that Dorsey and his affinity for bad boys would result in Callaway. Simeon Thomas was another bad boy, suspended over a year and a half for major conduct issues and will be 25 in September. There were 2 guys that tested positive for drugs at the combine, and the Browns currently have both of them in rookie camp.

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The Colts draft looks alright because of the sheer volume.  I just think Ballard passed on some far superior talent, especially at 36/37.  We could be talking about a class including Quenton Nelson, Josh Jackson, Harold Landry, and Maurice Hurst.  Switch out two of those for Guice and Sutton if you prefer.  Instead we opted for minor-to-moderate reaches and projects.  I'll never understand it.

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1 hour ago, bananabucket said:

The Colts draft looks alright because of the sheer volume.  I just think Ballard passed on some far superior talent, especially at 36/37.  We could be talking about a class including Quenton Nelson, Josh Jackson, Harold Landry, and Maurice Hurst.  Switch out two of those for Guice and Sutton if you prefer.  Instead we opted for minor-to-moderate reaches and projects.  I'll never understand it.

Yeah the Colts day 2 was an abomination for me. They still had a good draft overall, but I feel like they took some epic reaches at the top of the 2nd round. But as always, we have to wait and see. Who knows where other teams had those guys ranked on their big boards? Maybe we assumed they were reaches, but it matched most other GM's boards.

For example, the Browns took Corbett at pick #33. I was shocked, as I had no idea he was regarded that highly. But after doing some research, apparently many teams and scouts had him ranked in the top 40 players, including one team having him ranked #16 on the big-board. These guys are pretty connected around the league and have a general idea of where certain guys will be taken, so I'm assuming they knew that if they wanted Smith/Lewis/Leonard/Turay, they needed to take them there.

...but man, I don't believe in any of those guys based on the tape. I liked Smith the most, but he's not a good enough OG to justify going that high. Very few OG's are good enough to be 1st/2nd round picks and Smith wasn't one of those guys for me.

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10 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

1. 29. Taven Bryan  [ DT ] Florida

2. 61. DJ Chark  [ WR ] LSU

3. 93. Ronnie Harrison  [ S ] Alabama

4. 129. Will Richardson  [ OT ] NC State

6. 203. Tanner Lee  [ QB ] Nebraska

7. 230. Leon Jacobs  [ OLB ] Wisconsin

7. 247. Logan Cooke  [ P ] Mississippi State

 

I didn't like Taven Bryan as a prospect because I thought he was going to get killed on double teams and trap blocks. With all of the ridiculous talent Jacksonville has on defense, it's going to be near impossible to double team Bryan. He's going to come in on passing downs and flood the QB outside right into Campbell/Ngakoue/Fowler. This is a great fit because of where he landed.

DJ Chark is a beast and a perfect fit for what they need. Keep safeties deep and let Fournette run against some cleaner boxes.

Ronnie Harrison is a stud. I wouldn't have batted an eye if he went in the top 15. He's a solid box safety with very surprising cover skills for such a big dude. He's not really fast or explosive, but he is always in the right spot and doesn't give up big plays. He could play FS or SS in the NFL. I wonder if they move him up to being their big NCB, so long as he stays out of man coverage.

Can someone tell me something about Will Richardson? It seems like everyone loved this pick. I never watched him play a down.

The rest of their draft was pretty bleh tbh, but they were super late round picks so who cares.

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2 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

11. Cleveland Browns

 

What They Had Leaving The Draft:

1. 1. Baker Mayfield  [ QB ] Oklahoma

1. 4. Denzel Ward  [ CB ] Ohio State

2. 33. Austin Corbett  [ G ] Nevada

2. 35. Nick Chubb  [ RB ] Georgia

3. 67. Chad Thomas  [ DE ] Miami (FL)

4. 105. Antonio Callaway  [ WR ] Florida

5. 150. Genard Avery  [ LB ] Memphis

6. 175. Damion Ratley  [ WR ] Texas A&M

6. 188. Simeon Thomas  [ CB ] Louisiana

 

Best Thing About This Draft:

I liked that they took the QB they liked the most, not the guy they felt compelled to take. Mayfield was frequently compared to Johnny Manziel, rightly or wrongly (wrongly) and that alone makes it a gutsy move, let alone the size and personality stuff. It's kind cool that they drafted the analytics darling but, presumably, did so for footballing reasons based purely on the old school 'football guys' within in the Cleveland brain trust. Perhaps Mayfield will simply get the fans and his teammates pumped up in a way that Darnold with his cooler demeanour perhaps wouldn’t do. It’s a bit like Josh Allen in Buffalo, this just feels like a nice fit for reasons that have nothing to do with actual football. On the field he's an accurate thrower who thrives in chaos and has an unnatural sixth sense for escaping pressure. He’s also shown more arm strength than what used to be a criticism of him and is deadly on tight window throws with A+ ball placement. If you take him, you’ve got to embrace an abrasive side of his personality that threatens to overboil at times. Because his teammates will rally to it if his time at Oklahoma is anything to go by.

Yeah i think Baker is going to be a stud. I thought all 4 of the top QB's would have been fine selections at #1 overall, which is pretty rare. Usually I latch on to a favorite by the time draft day rolls around, but I had no definitive QB #1. I'm glad they took their guy. Baker was easily the #1 QB if he were 6'3+. It's hard to DQ him from being the top guy over 2 inches of height.

2 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Worst Thing About This Draft:

They had an absolute arsenal of draft capital to work with at the top of the draft and I like what they did in general, some of it was a little bit up and down. You can argue the Mayfield pick, I’m fine with it. Ward over Chubb was also a minor surprise and I love Ward. I think, based purely on what the Eagles achieved last year, I would rather have a horde of pass-rushers than a really good corner who fits a need. That’s kinda nitpicky though. It’s kind of similar for different reasons with Austin Corbett and Nick Chubb. Both are very good players, I just always envisioned Corbett playing inside, where he looked great at the Senior Bowl, but that’s where we’ve seen the heaviest investments in Cleveland. Plus, they traded for Carlos Hyde before the draft and have a pretty established 3rd down back. Maybe there’s a really good short term plan that's not obvious right now, or just a solid long-term one that’ll work them in when they’re ready.

Yeah I absolutely loved Ward and wanted nothing to do with Bradley Chubb in the top 5, so I was thrilled with the #4 pick. Literally my favorite Browns pick since Kellen Winslow in 200...5? He's going to be a lockdown cornerback while Chubb is just going to be a good player, not a great one. I don't think Chubb is going to be much of a pass rusher.   My least favorite pick was Chad Thomas from Miami. He fits as an interior pass rusher on 3rd downs as he is excellent stunting and moving, but I don't think he ever becomes a starter. Love Nick Chubb and had him as one of the 3 RB's that would make a pro bowl some day (Chubb/Guice/Barkley). It did seem strange though, considering we already had Hyde & Duke tho.

2 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Late Round Gem:

Genard Avery – LBC got me onto him, he lined up off the ball and on the edge at Memphis. He’s like a missile in the run game and has some skill as an outside pass-rusher too. I like him quite a bit more than Joe Schobert who was probably a similar prospect coming out of Wisconsin last year and played a lot of snaps in Cleveland in his first season. 

Could be a stud. Seems like a great piece for Gregg Williams, as he loves speed, pass rushers, and hard-hitters. Avery checks all of those boxes. Plus I think he can develop into a great zone coverage linebacker because of his loose hips.

2 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

What Else?

Ward is a slightly undersized, but plays big at the position and does it with an advanced intelligence. Plus, he has ridiculous leaping ability which allows him to compete with bigger receivers in the air. He allowed just 30% of passes to be completed in his direction over the past two years at Ohio State. I wonder if they want to see Austin Corbett can live at tackle, that’s where the help is needed after Joe Thomas retired. He’s another easy moving lineman, with light balanced feet but plays with an edge and has enough core strength to drop back on. Nick Chubb, for my money, was the best inside runner in the draft. It’s a miracle he can even walk, let alone test out like one of the best athletes coming out.

I couldn't quite get a feel for Chad Thomas. He looked like a long, athletic and powerful five tech/LDE on tape and then tested out not great. He’s got some inside/out versatility and could be a useful run defender if nothing else. Antonio Callaway is a explosive talent at wide receiver, but he was a car crash at being a human even before the weed bust. I just don’t think Dorsey can resist a bad boy. Damion Ratley had an insane 23 yards per catch at Texas A&M, he’s a deep threat and very little else at this point - but a good one. Simeon Thomas I don't really know other than he's a 6'3 dude who plays defensive back. 

I love the draft with the exception of Chad Thomas, but I understand what his role will be in the defense and I'm OK with it. He was elite on stunts and angles at Miami, and that's what Gregg Williams loves to do with his defense on passing downs. And I'd bet one of Ratley/Callaway ends up becoming a stud for us. They both have freaky traits that will have 1-1 coverage all game long so long as Gordon and Landry are on the field with them. Yeah, Simeon Thomas is just a big DB that I've never heard of either. Couldn't even find tape on him. Who knows...

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On 5/5/2018 at 6:23 PM, goldfishwars said:

Best Thing About This Draft:

They drafted a bunch of athletic players who were built for the modern sub-package game, this is a between-the-numbers draft from top to bottom. Miami are a team clearly thinking ahead about where the game might be heading. Not many people matched Minkah with Miami pre draft, but clearly he fits the personality of the type of player they are looking to get in the building after a recent in-house personality cleanse. He’s a versatile defensive player who can match pattern with running backs and tight ends alike. It’s a hugely important defensive weapon to have right now and one probably made with one eye on the Patriots.

Good write-up, let me nitpick this inconsequential point: a lot of Miami writers had Minkah as the pick months out, and weren't buying the QB hype in the slightest. Gase has a direct line to Saban (Gase coached under him at LSU) and as you mentioned Minkah checks all the personality boxes for Miami (intelligent, versatile, loves football, hard worker) while also filling a position of need.

On 5/5/2018 at 6:23 PM, goldfishwars said:

Worst Thing About This Draft:

No picks spent on an offensive line lacking in quality, health and depth – that was a bit of surprise. According to the depth chart, they will be fielding an inside trio of the embers of Josh Sitton, Daniel Kilgore and Jesse Davis who was fairly solid for them in spot duty last year. Interior defensive line is also thin in the wake of Suh’s departure although they did recently trade for Akeem Spence. 

Technically speaking Miami dropped down 4 spots in the 7th to acquire C Daniel Kilgore. You're spot on about the depth issue, however. Tunsil - Sitton - Kilgore - Davis - James looks decent on paper but an injury anywhere (which is probably an inevitability) could have some pretty major repercussions. The one (good?) thing you could say is that the primary backups (Larsen, Young) will be returning so there's some continuity there.

 

I'm enjoying your other write ups as well, thanks for doing them.

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Always love this thread every year. 

So, if I'm noting these correctly, it appears that the top-10 is the following teams in some order:

Ravens
Bengals
Jets
Broncos
Bears
Packers
Bucs
Cowboys
Redskins
Cardinals

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I am surprised you left Cleveland out of the top 10, just based on the number of starters they drafted. By my count, not including Mayfield, there are a couple of plug and play starters and a couple more by end of rookie season. There's not a player on the list that does not have a good chance of playing at least suiting in 2020.

Then again, the Giants draft is usually top 5 or so.

J

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I think it's absolutely amazing that you can review each team's draft with such detail and have fans of those teams agree with you and say it's a fair assessment. This thread is genuinely one of the few things I look forward to each offseason. Hats off to you @goldfishwars

Edited by Packer_ESP
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3 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Yeah the Colts day 2 was an abomination for me. They still had a good draft overall, but I feel like they took some epic reaches at the top of the 2nd round. But as always, we have to wait and see. Who knows where other teams had those guys ranked on their big boards? Maybe we assumed they were reaches, but it matched most other GM's boards.

For example, the Browns took Corbett at pick #33. I was shocked, as I had no idea he was regarded that highly. But after doing some research, apparently many teams and scouts had him ranked in the top 40 players, including one team having him ranked #16 on the big-board. These guys are pretty connected around the league and have a general idea of where certain guys will be taken, so I'm assuming they knew that if they wanted Smith/Lewis/Leonard/Turay, they needed to take them there.

...but man, I don't believe in any of those guys based on the tape. I liked Smith the most, but he's not a good enough OG to justify going that high. Very few OG's are good enough to be 1st/2nd round picks and Smith wasn't one of those guys for me.

Ballard's rationale is that he wanted to focus on OL and front seven above all else, and after Leonard/Smith there was a big drop off at those positions.  I don't see that as reason to justify passing on far superior talent, but like you said maybe we just place vastly different values on these guys.  But I mean I didn't really like any of our four second rounders.  Smith I'm okay with just because of how tired of atrocious interior play I am. 

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On 5/4/2018 at 1:34 PM, goldfishwars said:

21. Tennessee Titans

evans600-042718b.jpg

Pre-Draft Needs:

EDGE, OL, LB

What They Had Heading into the Draft:

1. 25

2. 57

3. 89

4. 125

5. 162

6. 199

 

What They Had Leaving The Draft:

1. 22. Rashaan Evans  [ LB ] Alabama

2. 41. Harold Landry  [ EDGE ] Boston College

5. 152. Dane Cruikshank  [ CB ] Arizona

6. 199. Luke Falk  [ QB ] Washington State

 

Best Thing About This Draft:

They drafted two really good players in Rashaan Evans and Harold Landry. They obviously felt they had done their spending in FA and were good outside two spots most people thought they would look to fill. Evans should slot right in next to Woodyard in their base, he can do a bit of everything and the scheme fits him well. The floor his high, he plays with a real edge and intelligence which you have to in Alabama’s complex scheme. I think he's a better fit here than he would have been in New England, who they traded above to get him. I thought Landry was the best pure rusher in the class. He tested out really well, he’s got a natural ability to bend around the corner and nobody else in this class was as good as that. Perhaps the medical situation is there is worse than we know, but if it isn’t then it just doesn’t make sense that he fell as far as he did. 

Worst Thing About This Draft:

Well, this ranking is more of a reflection of how many players they ended up drafting rather than who they selected. it was kind of brief – they traded up for players they liked and made just the four selections in total. There’s a mild surprise they didn’t try and get some offensive line help, given Jack Conklin’s serious injury and the lack of obvious back-up options there. Unless they really like Dennis Kelly, which is possible. There’s also a noticeable lack of athleticism on the offensive line interior which might become an issue. 

Late Round Gem:

Dane Cruikshank -  A few people were really high on Dane, some referred to him as a poor man’s Minkah Fitzpatrick given his similar stature and ability to play a number of roles at the back end. He tested particularly well athletically too and could feature in a number of roles in the back-end. 

What Else?

That would be Luke Falk. I didn’t get a great feel for Luke Falk, he’s not particularly toolsy and played in an NFL unfriendly scheme. He's seems like a great dude off the field and thinks about the game deeply, perhaps that's a nice asset to have in the locker room. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him hang around in a back-up role for a good while.

Jon Robinson has done an amazing job building depth throughout our roster in his short time as GM, to the point that there wasn't that many clear cut needs that we had. With a solid roster, I think it makes sense to go for more high end prospects than quantity. A ton of late round picks this season would have ended up on the practice squad at best most likely. We were somewhat short on young defensive prospects. Prior to selecting Adoree Jackson last year in the first round, the last time we used a first round pick on defense was Derrick Morgan in 2010. Now this strategy likely would not be smart every year, but I think it made a lot of sense this season. And the most impressive thing is that we moved up in the first and second rounds and maintained all of our picks for next year. 

With all that said though, it was pretty boring as a fan of the draft with so few picks. lol

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Kind of a “no duh” statement, but it comes down to how Baker produces. I don’t like him as a prospect. However, if he pans out the way he’s projected, I won’t care if everybody else flops.

 

If Myles Garrett, Baker Mayfield, and Denzel Ward all pan out, no Browns fans will care what happens to the other guys.

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10. Arizona Cardinals

GettyImages-951616920_1524828201462_5423

Pre-Draft Needs:

QB, WR, OL, DB

What They Had Heading into the Draft:

1. 15

2. 47

3. 79

3. 97

4. 134

5. 152

6. 182

7. 238

7. 254

 

What They Had Leaving The Draft:

1.   10.   Josh Rosen    [   QB   ]   UCLA  

2.   47.   Christian Kirk    [   WR   ]   Texas A&M  

3.   97.   Mason Cole    [   C   ]   Michigan  

4.   134.   Chase Edmonds    [   RB   ]   Fordham  

6.   182.   Chris Campbell    [   CB   ]   Penn State  

7.   254.   Korey Cunningham    [   OT   ]   Cincinnati  

 

Best Thing About This Draft:

Josh Rosen at 10 for just exchange of 1st round picks, plus a 3rd and a 5th seemed an unlikely scenario at the start of the draft process – but this seems more than a nice deal for the Cardinals here. Landing a franchise quarterback without having to sell the farm is almost a rarity these days. Rosen was my favoirte QB in the class, a throwback repetitive technician who is an elegant, poised passer and polished in the areas that usually need the most development (footwork, working within the pocket). 

Worst Thing About This Draft:

There’s still not a great situation at tackle in Arizona with DJ Humphries, recovering from some pretty serious injuries sustained last season, and an Andre Smith playing well below his best at the other spot. They did draft an athletic project in Korey Cunningham in the 7th, but he needs some time. That might not be an ideal situation for a team whose main two quarterbacks have had their share of injury concerns.

Late Round Gem:

Chris Campbell – I don’t really know he wasn’t thought of higher after a great week of practice at the Senior Bowl where he was named DB of the week by PFF. At 6’1, with almost 34 inch arms, he’s also got some speed and recorded some crazy jumps at his pro-day. On a thinner looking DB roster, he’s got a good chance to make the team.

What Else?

I liked Christian Kirk in the second round, teams have raved about how he interviewed in the draft process. He’s a former five star recruit with the kind of early promise that promised a greatness he never really got close to at Texas A&M. His best asset is his short area quickness, which can be devastating at times and something the Cardinals should look to exploit. I liked Mason Cole in the 3rd round, he’s a good technician and has got some versatility to play at a number of spots on the offensive line but looks a better fit inside. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him starting sooner than later. Chase Edmonds had some gaudy looking stats at Fordham, clocking up 62 touchdowns before injuries hit in his final season. A smaller back, he can catch out of the backfield and has crazy make-you-miss ability in close quarters.

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