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Week 1 GDT Thread - Chicago (0-0) @ Green Bay (0-0)


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18 minutes ago, squire12 said:

2012, 2013 and 2014 GB started 1-2 in each of those seasons.  That lead to the often slow starting.   Wins and losses are 1 thing, perception (relative to expectations) of how the Rodgers led offense performs is another.  

This is what i was alluding too, it’s easy to look at the immediate sample and forget that it wasn’t always that way. And unfortunately last year seems like a complete fail regardless of how we started.

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Warren Sharp at Sharp Football has a piece out on the bears offensive improvements and other changes he expects under Nagy
(who studied under Pederson and Reid)

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2018/efficiency-explosion-headed-for-the-windy-city

"There is no doubt with all of the coaching improvements, personnel improvements and typical QB growth from year one to year two that we will see a virtual offensive efficiency explosion in Chicago.  I wish they didn’t play in arguably the most competitive division in the NFL, and I wish they didn’t such an overall difficult schedule.  But for the reasons described above, there is no doubt in my mind the 2018 Bears are in a far better position to succeed.  And I’m excited to watch the growth. "

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26 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

From Packers Wire:

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2018/09/04/packers-qb-aaron-rodgers-has-dominated-bears-during-career/

 

"Aaron Rodgers has completed more passes, for more yards and more touchdowns against the Bears....
....than against any other NFL team in his career"

This just reads that he has more passing stats against the Bears than the Lions or Vikings. 

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2 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

This just reads that he has more passing stats against the Bears than the Lions or Vikings. 

Nah....
It reads that the bears hate Rodgers' dominance over them so much -  that they'd be willing to spend $ 141 million and 3 draft picks on one pass rusher to hopefully put an end to their decade-long nightmare.... :)

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2 hours ago, squire12 said:

2012, 2013 and 2014 GB started 1-2 in each of those seasons.  That lead to the often slow starting.   Wins and losses are 1 thing, perception (relative to expectations) of how the Rodgers led offense performs is another.  

I definitely think it was a misled perception. The arbitrary 3-game cutoff always seemed like some cherrypicking by people searching for things to place blame on. The sample is so small, changing the outcome of 1 of the 3 games can swing the %'s wildly from 33% (5-win team) to 67% (11-win team). Which can be misleading, especially due to the flukey nature of 2 of those losses (Fail-Mary game & 50-yd walkoff fumble return by Cincy). 

Not to mention the mistaken underlying assumption that a team's strength-of-schedule stays at a uniform level throughout the season. All 3 of those 3-game stretches featured a tougher than average SOS, with all 6 of the losses coming against 11+ win teams and 5 of the 6 losses coming on road games. 

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1 hour ago, TransientTexan said:

I definitely think it was a misled perception. The arbitrary 3-game cutoff always seemed like some cherrypicking by people searching for things to place blame on. The sample is so small, changing the outcome of 1 of the 3 games can swing the %'s wildly from 33% (5-win team) to 67% (11-win team). Which can be misleading, especially due to the flukey nature of 2 of those losses (Fail-Mary game & 50-yd walkoff fumble return by Cincy). 

Not to mention the mistaken underlying assumption that a team's strength-of-schedule stays at a uniform level throughout the season. All 3 of those 3-game stretches featured a tougher than average SOS, with all 6 of the losses coming against 11+ win teams and 5 of the 6 losses coming on road games. 

All fair points.   So it could be stated that the last 3 years of "better starts" (based on W/L record) might be an easier schedule or some other favorable variable unrelated to the quality of the team itself.  

Also important that 3 games is just shy of 20% of the season.

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3 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

I've been told that the bears interior OL is quite talented....

Should be an early barometer for the Packers remodeled DL and Pettine's ability to maximize their impact

I suspect a steady dose of Howard and Cohen...

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23 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

About 1/3 of Ty Montgomery's total career production has been at the expense of the Chicago Bears.  

Lol. Good point. However, I have no faith in Monty having any big games until he can prove he isn't made of glass. Here's to hoping he surprises me and continues hunting and harvesting those bears! 

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