Jump to content
Activated10

Indianapolis Colts aren't SB Contenders

Recommended Posts

18 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

Eagles were 7-9 the year before their SB

Panthers  7-8-1 

Falcons 8-8 

Giants 8-8

Saints 8-8, 7-9

Cards 8-8

Happens more often then you might think.

 

 

 

I said won the SB. Half of those teams you mention lost the SB.

If you want to really go in depth on it:

The 2010 Packers were very hyped going into the season. People thought they were one of the top contenders in the NFC. They sorta fell apart a bit in the regular season and lost that status, but regained it quickly after blowing out Atlanta in the divisional.

The 2011 Giants weren't really thought to do much, they were in the talks to win that that division going into the season. But that team did go 9-7. IMHO I think that run was a complete fluke anyways.

The 2012 Ravens were definitely one of the top AFC picks going into the season. Like the 2010 Packers, they sorta had an uninspiring regular season and became a huge underdog by the time the postseason started. But going into the season they were definitely considered a top 5 team.

The 2013 Seahawks were definitely considered a top 5 team heading into this season.

The 2014 Patriots had a lot of talk about possibly it being the end of Brady/Belichick, but I still think almost everyone had them as among the top AFC contenders going into this season.

The 2015 Broncos were definitely a top pick. People didn't realize that Peyton Manning was going to be a zombie yet before the season started.

The 2016 Patriots obviously had concerns about Brady missing the first 4 games, but I still think most people considered them the top dog in the AFC going into the season.

The 2017 Eagles were a surprise team

The 2018 Patriots were considered the top dog in the AFC going into the season.

 

So of all the SB winners this decade, the only two real surprise SB winners are the Giants and Eagles. Every other team you can at least say that they were in the conversation for teams that could win the SB headed into the season.

Edited by Bolts223

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/16/2019 at 2:52 PM, Bolts223 said:
On 5/15/2019 at 8:05 PM, Nabbs4u said:

Eagles were 7-9 the year before their SB

Panthers  7-8-1 

Falcons 8-8 

Giants 8-8

Saints 8-8, 7-9

Cards 8-8

Happens more often then you might think.

 

 

 

I said won the SB. Half of those teams you mention lost the SB.

Point being they Made the SB without being "SB Contenders". Hell if were being honest The Falcons easily should of Won, Cards without the Toe Tap of Santonio could of Won. 

You have to be in it to Win it.  Year in and Year out the so called SB Contenders outside of the one outlier NE, fail miserably. To much Parity and Injury in the NFL to Eliminate or Anoint anyone. That's all.

 

Edited by Nabbs4u

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

Point being they Made the SB without being "SB Contenders". Hell if were being honest The Falcons easily should of Won, Cards without the Toe Tap of Santonio could of Won. SF before the Blackout was killing the Ravens.

 

Think you got that backwards homie, the Ravens were up 28-6 on the Niners til the blackout. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/12/2019 at 6:47 PM, MrOaktown_56 said:

They were absolutely annihilated by the Chiefs last year in the playoffs. It wasn't even a game.

Are they likely to make the playoffs? Sure.

Is there a gap they need to close though... absolutely.

That Chiefs team is GONE

  • They lost Houston and Ford.
    • The Chiefs were +11 in turnovers, in large part due to Ford and Houston forcing 12 fumbles. (Clark forced 3 in Seattle)
    • Houston sacked Luck twice in that playoff game. This will be hard to repeat while playing for Indy.
  • They paid a ton of money to a bad safety who was good 3 years ago.
  • They will not have Tyreek Hill.

No team in the NFL is going to take a bigger step back than the Chiefs. 14 wins counting playoffs to 8-10 wins this year.

  • Mahomes is still going to be very good but like 30-35 TDs instead of 50. Nobody ever maintains that level of personal and team success.
    • Manning went from 55 to 39 and he went from 49 to 28
      • Both his Denver and Indy teams stayed very good or improved but they were loaded with talent on both sides of the ball
    • Brady went from 50 to injury but never again topped 40
      • The lost 5 more games without Brady. They did not win a playoff game for 3 years.
    • Marino went from 48 to 30 and 44 to 26
      • Dropped 24.8 rating points and won 2 less games
      • They were only 8-8 in 86 and the next year was the strike (rating dropped 3 points and he had a 7-5 record)
    • The closest to maintaining TD passes was Brees going from 46 to 43 but he dropped 15.3 points in rating and they won 6 fewer games.
    • Rodgers went from 45 to 39 TDs, dropped 14.5 rating points and lost 3 more games.
      • Rodgers other 40 TD season was followed by an injury year and 7-9
    • Warner's 41 was followed by  an injury year and the Rams winning 3 less games. (6 less if you count playoffs)
    • Staffords 41 was followed by 6 less wins and 21 less TDs and a drop in rating of 17.4 points
    • Luck followed his 40 with an injury year, a 20+ drop in rating, and the Colts went from 11 wins and 2 playoff wins to 8-8

I expect the Colts to win 12 or 13 games and have a bye.

They are also in an insanely great position to add a few impact players at the trade deadline with their 58 million in cap space.

Edited by SkippyX

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's just a really bad take but you sound like a Chiefs hater.

Just the typical thought process where you first deem the team to be "bad" and then find your way to justify such and select stats that fit your agenda to support your opinion.

The Chiefs will be every bit as good as those top 2 odds to win the SB and heavy favorites to win the AFC West.

They will be fielding a powerhouse this year. 

I would expect Mahomes to get 35-45 TDs.

You just need to be a bit more patient. It's coming.

Edited by Buckweath

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This KC roster is stacked. Most talented Chiefs team in my lifetime.

The safety duo of Mathieu and Thornhill is much better than the revolving door of Berry, Parker, Murray, and Sorenson from 2018

Linebackers are still a weakness, but KC did add Darron Lee and Damien Wilson. These players may be starting caliber in KC, which is improvement

Defensive Line: Jones and Clark are both double digit sack guys. Having Clark and Okafor on the edge gives us better run defense than the Ford Houston duo. And getting a new defensive staff as well as scheme mean we’re looking at an entirely different defense, but likely stronger and better coached

Offense remains potent, with or without Hill. Even when KC had Smith (and no Hill) they were solid on offense. Now we’re supposed to believe an offense with (at minimum) Mahomes, Kelce, Watkins, and Williams, coached by Andy Reid, isn’t going to be a top unit? (And this is assuming we do not get contributions from Hill or a rookie, but I think we will).

Looks like KC will surprise the NFL, again...

Edited by Nightime

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I actually do expect the Chiefs to regress a bit, if for no other reason than Mahomes.  While it seems clear that he's a good QB (hated him as a prospect), I don't think it's realistic to expect a season that good again.  Chiefs will be good, very good, and definitely one of the top teams in the AFC, but the Chargers can challenge them in their own conference, and the Broncos have a competent QB again.  Raiders are still a year or two away, but they're better.

And they did have a whole lot of turnover.  Should take a bit for the new players to gel.

I really don't see a big line between them and the Colts.  But maybe that's because I'm a Titans fan who's lived under Colts tyranny for most of my life.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Nightime said:

This KC roster is stacked. Most talented Chiefs team in my lifetime.

The safety duo of Mathieu and Thornhill is much better than the revolving door of Berry, Parker, Murray, and Sorenson from 2018

Linebackers are still a weakness, but KC did add Darron Lee and Damien Wilson. These players may be starting caliber in KC, which is improvement

Defensive Line: Jones and Clark are both double digit sack guys. Having Clark and Okafor on the edge gives us better run defense than the Ford Houston duo. And getting a new defensive staff as well as scheme mean we’re looking at an entirely different defense, but likely stronger and better coached

Offense remains potent, with or without Hill. Even when KC had Smith (and no Hill) they were solid on offense. Now we’re supposed to believe an offense with (at minimum) Mahomes, Kelce, Watkins, and Williams, coached by Andy Reid, isn’t going to be a top unit? (And this is assuming we do not get contributions from Hill or a rookie, but I think we will).

Looks like KC will surprise the NFL, again...

You're pretty much spot on except you forgot to mention the Chiefs Dline not only has a strong starting four but it is also deep both at DT and DE. 

It will probably be as good as any Dlinee tu in the league.

All in all, the offense should take a small step back from the historically good offense from last year but the defense should be much better.

When Veach finally adds that good CB via trade, that's a defense that should be pretty good.

I like that we are turning this into a Chiefs thread.

Edited by Buckweath

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My analysis.

I think they have enough talent to win the division. Doesn't mean they will. It means they can. Their passing and rushing games should both be better. Quenton Nelson is no longer the rookie he was for the first half of the year but the stud that made him all pro with only the second half of the year, and that carries over the whole line. Luck is a year farther removed from injury comeback. Runners benefit from the improved line play.

TY is fine and they have some good TE's. If Campbell or someone else steps up, that unit is fine.

On defense they are essentially intact with a few more pieces on a defense that was jelling. They have the corner depth to be more effective (and stay) in the sub packages. I really like Ya-Sin. Decent depth across the defense will keep them okay if they have injuries.

The winner of the Super Bowl is sometimes the team that best avoids injuries. If the Colts win the division, avoid injuries, develop or mask their problem units, and catch fire for a few games, they can win the Super Bowl.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, SkippyX said:

I expect the Colts to win 12 or 13 games and have a bye.

They are also in an insanely great position to add a few impact players at the trade deadline with their 58 million in cap space.

I don't know about 13 wins, but the Colts are sure looking good. Freakin' love their coach, Mr Reich is a go-getter guy. One playoff win for this squad on the road, then another playoff game on the road where they ran out of steam against a fresh rested KC team. 

The 2018 Colts were basically the answer to the question: "I wonder how Luck and the Colts could play if they had a decent offensive line?" And now we know...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, SkippyX said:

That Chiefs team is GONE

  • They lost Houston and Ford.
    • The Chiefs were +11 in turnovers, in large part due to Ford and Houston forcing 12 fumbles. (Clark forced 3 in Seattle)
    • Houston sacked Luck twice in that playoff game. This will be hard to repeat while playing for Indy.
  • They paid a ton of money to a bad safety who was good 3 years ago.
  • They will not have Tyreek Hill.

No team in the NFL is going to take a bigger step back than the Chiefs. 14 wins counting playoffs to 8-10 wins this year.

First of all, this thread isn't about KC. MrOaktown's point was that they were decimated by the Chiefs, which isn't a great sign for them being a legit contender. If KC falls off, there are still other roadblocks that could presumably do what we did to them. If Indy can't score more than one TD against our defense, they're not going to get past LAC or NE either.

 

Second, there's some pretty bad hot takes in here. Yes, we lost Houston and Ford. We also gained Clark, Ogbah, and Okafor. Those pass rush snaps Houston had against Luck don't disappear. Him being gone doesn't mean we instantly sack Luck two less times. It's entirely possible that one of our new rushers could've matched that performance. It's impossible to say one way or another. But it isn't like Houston is some godly irreplaceable pass rusher at this stage of his career. He was a 9 sack guy. Even if you think our new edge rotation will be worse than our old one, and that's a reasonable take, those sacks, those fumbles, those snaps don't just vanish.

Mathieu is not a bad safety. He was graded above average by PFF. He was still a strong performer. Is he as elite as he looked at the start of his career? No. But he's effectively replacing Ron Parker in our safety rotation, so it's a huge upgrade regardless. Even if you don't think much of Mathieu, adding him is not reason to justify predicting us to be worth. He's an addition. He's something we didn't have last year. Even if he was mediocre that would still be a gain, not a loss.

Hill is TBD. Not going to get to into it, but there is a reason we haven't cut him yet, like we did with Hunt. At this point I think he still winds up playing most of the season for us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope Chiefs fans aren’t relying on Ogbah to give them a consistent pass rush. He has 7 sacks the last 2 years and that was with Myles Garrett on the other side.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting thread. While i have always expected Luck to ein a SB or couple of em imo the league is too balanced right now for anything other than the most experienced qbs to win.

Brady brees and Rivers all have teams just as good. Ben will have pitt in it without the drama queens this season.

Plenty of other teams just as talented as well. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

I hope Chiefs fans aren’t relying on Ogbah to give them a consistent pass rush. He has 7 sacks the last 2 years and that was with Myles Garrett on the other side.

We're not. Just part of the rotation. Okafor and Clark will start ahead of him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Buckweath said:

You're pretty much spot on except you forgot to mention the Chiefs Dline not only has a strong starting four but it is also deep both at DT and DE. 

It will probably be as good as any Dlinee tu in the league.

All in all, the offense should take a small step back from the historically good offense from last year but the defense should be much better.

When Veach finally adds that good CB via trade, that's a defense that should be pretty good.

I like that we are turning this into a Chiefs thread.

Hahahahahahahah

 

 

 

Wait

 

 

 

Hahahahahahahahahahahahah

 

The Chiefs defense was bad, really, really, really bad with better players than what they have now.  The offense is going to seriously miss Hunt and Hill and Mitch Morris.  Dont be shocked when the Chiefs take a big step back this year.  And no, ther is no way....nooooo way that the Chiefs dline is a top 5 unit, let alone the best in the league.

Colts are absolutely a superbowl contender and one of the top 3 teams in the conference.  They have been my pick to represent the AFC all off season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×