theJ Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 12 minutes ago, Dome said: like a cruise ship I was thinking cleveland, but yours is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MookieMonstah Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 The issue won’t be the death rate when only a handful of people have it. If 50-70% of the population gets it like the CDC predicts, hospitals will legitimately not be able to treat a majority of people. The death rate may sky rocket if people legitimately can’t be seen by a doctor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heimdallr Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 31 minutes ago, MookieMonstah said: The issue won’t be the death rate when only a handful of people have it. If 50-70% of the population gets it like the CDC predicts, hospitals will legitimately not be able to treat a majority of people. The death rate may sky rocket if people legitimately can’t be seen by a doctor. Anyone who isn't high risk should stay far away from hospitals or doctor's offices. There isn't anything they can do for a virus anyway, except keep you hydrated. Just chug gatorade. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 35 minutes ago, MookieMonstah said: The issue won’t be the death rate when only a handful of people have it. If 50-70% of the population gets it like the CDC predicts, hospitals will legitimately not be able to treat a majority of people. The death rate may sky rocket if people legitimately can’t be seen by a doctor. Where have you seen that prediction? I just have a hard time imaging this is true. For reasons i can't explain, viruses seem to pop up in December/January, then peter out in March/April when spring time rolls out. Well, it's March already, and less than 0.002% of the population has gotten this so far. Seems like a stretch to think that this thing is going to take off like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, theJ said: 42 minutes ago, MookieMonstah said: The issue won’t be the death rate when only a handful of people have it. If 50-70% of the population gets it like the CDC predicts, hospitals will legitimately not be able to treat a majority of people. The death rate may sky rocket if people legitimately can’t be seen by a doctor. Where have you seen that prediction? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html Quote What May Happen More cases of COVID-19 are likely to be identified in the coming days, including more cases in the United States. It’s also likely that sustained person-to-person spread will continue to occur, including throughout communities in the United States. It’s likely that at some point, widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States will occur. Widespread transmission of COVID-19 would translate into large numbers of people needing medical care at the same time. Schools, childcare centers, and workplaces, may experience more absenteeism. Mass gatherings may be sparsely attended or postponed. Public health and healthcare systems may become overloaded, with elevated rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Other critical infrastructure, such as law enforcement, emergency medical services, and sectors of the transportation industry may also be affected. Healthcare providers and hospitals may be overwhelmed. At this time, there is no vaccine to protect against COVID-19 and no medications approved to treat it. Nonpharmaceutical interventions would be the most important response strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 1 hour ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html Ok, but that doesn't say 50-70%. That would be like Black Death circa 1300's infection rates. Is there any data that suggests there's any truth to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 ok so Italy has a 33% mortality rate so far (roughly), and 10% of all active cases are considered serious or critical. Do they just have ****ty immune systems or just don't know there's a pandemic going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 29 minutes ago, theJ said: Ok, but that doesn't say 50-70%. That would be like Black Death circa 1300's infection rates. Is there any data that suggests there's any truth to that? https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00361-5 Quote Worst case Some researchers find such predictions overly optimistic. People in most Chinese cities started returning to work last week after an extended public-holiday period — opening up the possibility of new chains of transmission, says Hiroshi Nishiura, an epidemiologist at Hokkaido University in Sapporo, Japan. Nishiura says he has used a model that estimates that the outbreak will peak sometime between late March and late May. At this point, he says, up to 2.3 million cases will be diagnosed in a single day. In total, he estimates that between 550 million and 650 million people across China will be infected, roughly 40% of the country’s population. Nishiura says that about half of those people will show symptoms. Couldn't find the published model, but the realistic worst case scenario is that a pretty high percentage of people are infected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
animaltested Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 22 hours ago, mission27 said: South Korea is doing a much better job Guess having a robust, well funded national healthcare system does wonders. The US is trying to manage the outbreak with 300 million people having to share like 25,000 testing kits. Meanwhile SK had mobile testing stations rolling around testing everyone. Here is my South Korean healthcare story. I was NOT enrolled in the NHI (Foreigner), walked into Doctors office. Waited 15 minutes, meet with doctor, had a checkup. Came back a week later, reviewed results. Total cost 30-40$ (Since I was not enrolled). Prescribed three months of supplements. Cost under 60$ dollars (again not enrolled in NHI). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 32 minutes ago, theJ said: Is there any data that suggests there's any truth to that ? When it first broke out, it was animal -> human so all we had to do was stop eating bats and pangolins Then it was infected human -> human and that ramped it up a big notch. Getting it from people is a much bigger deal Then we learned that it can be spread from contacting surfaces that had been exposed to an infected person and that took it up another big notch We don't yet know how long the virus is viable sitting on a counter or how large a "dose" it takes to infect a healthy human. Without that data, its tough to make good predictions about infection rates The comparisons to flu aren't completely relevant; because we have experience with the flu, treatments that work and a playbook in how to handle it None of those things are true for this virus yet. We'll get there, but right now we're still flailing around trying to diagnose it and have nothing to treat it The reason for most flu deaths isn't gastrointestinal, the barfing and diarrhea usually aren't fatal. The respiratory illness is what gets ya and this one is a respiratory virus from the start. ( Its from the SARS family of viruses, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) Turns out breathing is very important to our survival That's why infectious disease experts and epidemiologists are concerned. The number of cases in US is currently under-reported and that's the result of issues with the test itself, general bureaucracy and the politicians' concerns about Wall Street. So when you ask if there is any data to back up these projections, just remember that we really don't have reliable data just yet. The virologists, infectious disease experts and epidemiological modelers are working with limited data and no previous experience with COVID-19 so we're learning as we go. 2 things you can do if you're concerned about exposure: wash your hands with soap and disinfect your mouth daily with a Listerine type product that kills anybody trying to take up residence in your mouth/throat. If you kill it before it colonizes and infects your lungs, you win. And that's true for strep throat or any other bug that enters through your pie hole.Also: Don't take medical advice from strangers on a football message board 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
animaltested Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Shanedorf said: Also: Don't take medical advice from strangers on a football message board Agreed. ITs better to take it from facebook pages, televangalists, and AM radio talkshow hosts. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 13 minutes ago, Shanedorf said: Also: Don't take medical advice from strangers on a football message board Ha, there's the really winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 9, 2020 Author Share Posted March 9, 2020 37 minutes ago, Shanedorf said: 2 things you can do if you're concerned about exposure: wash your hands with soap and disinfect your mouth daily with a Listerine type product that kills anybody trying to take up residence in your mouth/throat. If you kill it before it colonizes and infects your lungs, you win. And that's true for strep throat or any other bug that enters through your pie hole.Also: Don't take medical advice from strangers on a football message board Jack Daniels works even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted March 9, 2020 Author Share Posted March 9, 2020 1 hour ago, theJ said: Ok, but that doesn't say 50-70%. That would be like Black Death circa 1300's infection rates. Is there any data that suggests there's any truth to that? Yeah I get that there’s a lot we don’t know, but it’s very hard for me to imagine more than half the worlds population is going to get this Look at China. 80k cases out of 1.4b after 3-4 months and the spread is now slowing. Yes it’s obviously somewhat underreported but if this was the kind of infectious disease that was going to spread to 70% of the worlds population, people would be dropping like flies in China. The vast majority of the population of even Wuhan has not been diagnosed. Wuhan has 12m people. Even if only 1 in 10 cases get reported (which seems way too low for me given the severity we have seen in controlled samples like Diamond Princess... if we were only seeing the 10% most severe cases in Wuhan the death rate would probably be much higher... but who knows) that still means 95%+ of people in Wuhan have yet to catch this. China has the advantage of authoritarian rule but Wuhan is also extremely densely populated and dirty, and didn’t have any advanced warning to prepare for this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heimdallr Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 19 minutes ago, mission27 said: Jack Daniels works even better 151 proof rum works best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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