Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey signed 4 year extension

[childofpudding]

I can see both sides. Seems like a lot to pay a RB when you still have two more years of control. But in two years if the cap keeps rising and he continues to improve, $16m could look like a steal.

[y*so*blu]

McCaffrey is incredibly versatile and has a talent for making things happen. As mediocre as the Panthers were last season, I shudder to think how much worse they would have looked without this guy on the field. 

Yeah, shelling out big money for a RB backfires fairly often. If CMC takes up too much money for the new HC to build a better team around him, he can't be as effective and they'll end up wasting his prime. But if you don't take care of him and he leaves, you have no x-factor on that side of the ball; no offensive spark to make things easier for Teddy, extend drives, and make the other teams think. That overburdens the defense and Brees, Brady, and Ryan all pulverize you twice a year. Some people will call this an expensive mistake. If I'm the Panthers, I call it self-preservation.

Edited April 14, 2020 by y*so*blu

[theJ]

Welp, bye bye Joe Mixon.

[iknowcool]

7 hours ago, DannyB said:

A few things...

-Your examples are two of the greatest running backs in NFL history. They were exceptional. COULD cmc be that? Maybe, but I'll go ahead and slide my money to the other side of the table.

... CMC is exceptional.  

But anyway.  I literally just listed like 8+ RBs from the 2010s who remained highly productive at 24-27.  Elite RBs like McCaffrey, more often than not, don't just fall off a cliff at 24-27.

RBs with at least 3000 rushing yards and 1000 receiving yards in their first 3 seasons

So of the 21 RBs listed, only Johnson (and it isn't like he was bad), Anderson, Andrews post-injury, Sims post-injury, D. Williams due to career ending injury, Walker, McAllister, and Foster fell off in their 4th-7th years.  2 of those players (Sims and Andrews) were still great before they got hurt in the 2 years before injury, and Johnson still averaged over 1,000 yards a season.  And quite frankly a lot of the names I said fell off were never considered anywhere near as good as CMC.

So by what criteria of yours is sliding your money to the other side of the table the smart bet?  Because going by statistical trends and the RBs in NFL history who are most similar to CMC in their first 3 years, the odds would say that CMC won't fall off without an injury, which nobody can predict, and if anything, it is possible he hasn't had his best season yet.  Sanders, LDT, Dorsett, AD, etc. all had their best seasons after their 3rd year.  

Quote

-Is it fair to point out that neither of those guys even participated in a Super Bowl?

Again, why do people on this forum hold RB to this weird standard but not other players?  Calvin Johnson never participated in a Super Bowl.  Antonio Brown was only in the Super Bowl when he was a rookie and didn't play a big role.  JJ Watt hasn't played in a Super Bowl.  Jared Allen hasn't.  Patrick Peterson hasn't.  Joe Thomas never even played in a playoff game.  And what does it prove?  Absolutely nothing, just like LDT and AD not playing in a Super Bowl proves. Great players at every position miss the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl, all the time.  I mean hell if Favre wasn't Favre, Brees to this day would still have not played in a Super Bowl.  And what would it have meant?  Again, nothing.  Ish happens.

RB is the only position consistently held to the standard of, well if the best player didn't make it to the Super Bowl, then it somehow lends to the argument that the position doesn't mean much.

The fact is QB is the only position in the NFL where there is any kind of correlation between being good and making the Super Bowl.  In the grand scheme of things every position on its own is as useless as the RB position, but for some reason people try and pretend like it isn't to seem smart.  Being an elite DE means nothing if your team is bad.  Being an elite RB means nothing if your team is bad.  And if your a bad team shelling out big money to any single player, there is a chance it backfires.  And this isn't me saying that I'd draft an elite RB over an elite DE, of course not.  But I'd also take a DE long before I took a WR, and yet wide receiver doesn't get nearly as much backlash.

Edited April 14, 2020 by iknowcool

[SteelKing728]

Carolina should still draft a RB in rounds 3-4 to complement McCaffrey.

[SaveOurSonics]

Don't get me wrong, I generally agree with the premise that RBs shouldn't be handed huge contracts (same reason why I'd be hesitant to ever draft one before round 3), but I think the recency bias with Gurley and DJ has given people the mallet to beat their agenda-driven drums with. I can't stand blanket statements. 

LeSean McCoy is a great example of how paying RBs can work out just fine. Sure, he didn't finish his contract in Philly, but McCoy signed a 5-year extension in 2012 after 3 accrued seasons with the team (very similar to CMC). What did Shady do in those 5 years? He rushed for over 1,000 yards in all but one of them (12 games played), secured the NFL rushing title one season, recorded over 2,100 all-purpose yards in a season, and made the Pro Bowl every. single. season. of that extension. 

Maybe there should be a similar argument for not paying WRs? I mean, Baltimore finished as the #1 rated DVOA offense in the league without a true go-to WR. Seattle, San Fran, and Oakland were also in the top 10 as team's lacking a go-to threat and relying on the run game. Meanwhile, JuJu Smith-Schuster's Steelers ranked 32nd. Courtland Sutton, DJ Chark, and a team with both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin similarly finished in the league's bottom 10 in DVOA. 

My point isn't that WRs shouldn't get paid. It's that you can cherry-pick any information you want to make your case. Blanket statements are blanket. Every individual case should be analyzed as an individual case. It's a risk assessment, and CMC's background of little to no injury history + skill set + work ethic makes this a risk worth taking. 

[Soko]

11 hours ago, DannyB said:

- AD is slightly more relevant, but LT's peak was in the mid-2000s and even though it's not really that long ago, the game is pretty different now.

If anything it’s safer for guys with the different tackling rules and change from size to speed.

11 hours ago, DannyB said:

-Is it fair to point out that neither of those guys even participated in a Super Bowl?

Neither has Aaron Donald, JJ Watt, or Calvin Johnson...

11 hours ago, DannyB said:

-I still don't understand the hurry in doing this, when the team had two -- TWO -- more years of control. Of a running back. It's one thing to try to get in early with a QB to see if you can get a little bit of a discount, but it doesn't make as much sense with a RB.

I think it’s far fetched to assume CMC would be playing on the 5th year (or following franchise tag). 

[Kampfgeist]

Am I right that by signing a 4 year extension Car can spread any signing bonus money out over 6 yrs vs just 4 yrs if they would have waited to re-do the contract in a couple years?

If that is a correct assumption than Car can keep cap hits well below avg salary payout and probably have a lot of leeway in getting out of the contract after 4 yrs or so by limiting dead cap hits

[EvilenFroggen]

He’s the tenth highest paid receiver. Bargain!

[Fresh Prince]

Finally a team does the right thing and pays the RB entering his prime and not screwing him over. I like it

[minutemancl]

Paying Christian McCaffrey is a good idea. Paying Christian McCaffrey before his rookie deal is up is a really bad idea, because paying any RB before their rookie deal is up is a really bad idea.

I love Saquon, and I want him to be a Giant for life and get paid, but not before that 5th year is finished.

[Soko]

53 minutes ago, Kampfgeist said:

Am I right that by signing a 4 year extension Car can spread any signing bonus money out over 6 yrs vs just 4 yrs if they would have waited to re-do the contract in a couple years?

If that is a correct assumption than Car can keep cap hits well below avg salary payout and probably have a lot of leeway in getting out of the contract after 4 yrs or so by limiting dead cap hits

Over 5 years - the last year remaining on his rookie deal (his 5th year option wasn’t activated) plus the 4 years of the extension. The smart thing to do (that most teams do) is payout a brunt of the guarantees in the first year or two, then prorate the rest in the remaining years. Cap hits can fluctuate too and be unrelated to actual dollars that CMC brings in. Haven’t seen any details on this deal yet, though.

[Leoric]

13 hours ago, DannyB said:

A few things...

-Your examples are two of the greatest running backs in NFL history. They were exceptional. COULD cmc be that? Maybe, but I'll go ahead and slide my money to the other side of the table.

-AD is slightly more relevant, but LT's peak was in the mid-2000s and even though it's not really that long ago, the game is pretty different now.

-Is it fair to point out that neither of those guys even participated in a Super Bowl?

-I still don't understand the hurry in doing this, when the team had two -- TWO -- more years of control. Of a running back. It's one thing to try to get in early with a QB to see if you can get a little bit of a discount, but it doesn't make as much sense with a RB.

First three Seasons

CMC has more rushing yards than hall of famer Marcus Allen.

More receiving yards than Marvin Harrison

More Receptions then DeAndre Hopkins

More total yards from scrimmage then Barry Sanders.

He is no doubt an offensive weapon you can make the focal point of an offense and that is worth paying. Being handcuffed to 4 years of production that ends when he is 27 is a really smart move for Carolina barring catastrophic injury. They eliminated any hold out and secured his prime. I think this was a great deal for Carolina. I think they let this contract run it's course and then cut ties with a back that will have a lot of mileage on him at that point and likely only one year left of elite production. Just my take on it. Carolina doesn't have many stars and CMS is a bright one.

[Flounch]

1 hour ago, minutemancl said:

Paying Christian McCaffrey is a good idea. Paying Christian McCaffrey before his rookie deal is up is a really bad idea, because paying any RB before their rookie deal is up is a really bad idea.

I love Saquon, and I want him to be a Giant for life and get paid, but not before that 5th year is finished.

Why not pay him when he's performing well ? After the 5th year, what are the odd his performance start to decline ? 

[minutemancl]

Just now, Flounch said:

Why not pay him when he's performing well ? After the 5th year, what are the odd his performance start to decline ? 

We all saw what happened with Todd Gurley.

RBs take more of a beating than probably any other position in football. History has shown that you can never really tell when the wheels will fall off. I don't have a problem paying game changing RBs like McCaffrey, but I've taken the stance that you only pay them when you have to. What happens if the wheels come off in 2 years for McCaffrey, what would be the 5th year option of his rookie contract? The Panthers will have wasted a ton of money they did not have to waste.