Packerraymond Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 1 minute ago, skibrett15 said: something you know to be true but fight to your dying... no wait you've always hated Jamaal Williams: How could anyone hate Jamaal? I never understood this, you're telling me we're better with our #1 back on the field in comparison to our #2? No .... I wonder how all these stats looked when Hundley played QB versus Rodgers? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannondale Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, skibrett15 said: So, this concept that Aaron Jones is amazing the pass game... no. No he is not. He's good enough. Here's my question. MLF had success splitting Jones out / giving him routes down the field. Defenses adjusted by putting a safety on him. MLF then yells "Doh" and that's the end of that. Not good enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: How could anyone hate Jamaal? I never understood this, you're telling me we're better with our #1 back on the field in comparison to our #2? No .... I wonder how all these stats looked when Hundley played QB versus Rodgers? I don't hate Jamaal. Clearly team saw him as a significant weakness on the roster though. He's simply not dynamic enough in any way to positively affect the offense or make the defense respect him. Pretty much the definition of replacement level player. If you're going to be a good or great running team, you can't have a player like Williams who is a liability with the ball in his hands. Who only plays up to the level of the talent around him and doesn't create any yards. Those stats are all the same with just rodgers or just hundley. Those stats individually are all flawed. Together they tell enough of a story though. Does that mean this was a good pick? no. it was probably a mediocre to bad pick from a position and value standpoint. However, IF you are going to idiotically run the ball too many times, and IF Aaron Jones is going to be a big part of that, then you absolutely need a No. 2 back who can take a pounding and be a big part of that. Jones has proven he will get banged up and/or injured. Edited April 28, 2020 by skibrett15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBobGray Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: How could anyone hate Jamaal? I never understood this, you're telling me we're better with our #1 back on the field in comparison to our #2? No .... I wonder how all these stats looked when Hundley played QB versus Rodgers? This is the quintessential "using statistics to avoid actually saying anything". Like, let's measure the ways this is useless: How much worse are each of these stats? If Rodgers passer rating goes down 0.1 when Williams is in vs when he's out, I'm going to have a hard time getting worked up about it. Notice that it's in fact not comparing Jamaal Williams to Aaron Jones; it's comparing Jamaal Williams being on the field vs not. Which means it's vs Jones but also empty sets and obvious passing downs. Which brings us to #3- Why are nearly all of these either passing stats or stats that will be affected more by passing that running? Of everyone on the field, no one has a smaller individual impact on Aaron Rodgers passing ability than the RB. Not to mention, actually targeting Jamaal Williams is more efficient in the passing game than targeting Aaron Jones for their careers: 109.9 passer rating on targets to Williams, 95.13 passer rating targeting Jones. Which is another reason this is in not Williams vs Jones, but Williams vs not-Williams; they're able to hide stuff like this. I'm already tired of this so I'll stop here, but point being, this is just nonsense data to let him prop up a take that was already bad. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, skibrett15 said: I don't hate Jamaal. Clearly team saw him as a significant weakness on the roster though. He's simply not dynamic enough in any way to positively affect the offense or make the defense respect him. Pretty much the definition of replacement level player. If you're going to be a good or great running team, you can't have a player like Williams who is a liability with the ball in his hands. Who only plays up to the level of the talent around him and doesn't create any yards. Those stats are all the same with just rodgers or just hundley. Those stats individually are all flawed. Together they tell enough of a story though. Does that mean this was a good pick? no. it was probably a mediocre to bad pick from a position and value standpoint. However, IF you are going to idiotically run the ball too many times, and IF Aaron Jones is going to be a big part of that, then you absolutely need a No. 2 back who can take a pounding and be a big part of that. Jones has proven he will get banged up and/or injured. I was saying, how far do those stats fall when you take out your #1 QB and put in your #2. J-Will is a #2 RB, he's not dynamic, he's a glue guy, a steady all around player. Jones is going to put up better numbers. Doesn't mean we need to gripe about what we get from Williams. We drafted Dillon because he was BPA, both our RBs are FA's and LaFleur wants to split carries more. Jamaal will still see the field and he should, 20 % of the snaps is a decent distribution for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: We drafted Dillon because he was BPA, both our RBs are FA's and LaFleur wants to split carries more. Jamaal will still see the field and he should, 20 % of the snaps is a decent distribution for him. I'm really really really ok w/ Williams getting close to 0% because it means Jones is healthy and Dillon is a good player. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Just now, incognito_man said: I'm really really really ok w/ Williams getting close to 0% because it means Jones is healthy and Dillon is a good player. Won't happen if what LaFleur said at the Combine is true. He wants 3 backs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 Just now, Packerraymond said: Jamaal will still see the field and he should He should see the field only up until it's proven Dillon can run the plays or if Dillon proves to be a total bust. Beyond that if he's on the roster he should play special teams and should only go on the field if one of jones/dillon are hurt or if it's a blowout. Not using your 2nd round rookie RB to replace an average to below average player is just horrible team management. 14 minutes ago, MrBobGray said: 109.9 passer rating on targets to Williams, 95.13 passer rating targeting Jones. 7 y/target for jones in 2019, 5.6 for Williams. Counting 2017/18 seems silly. 6 minutes ago, MrBobGray said: Which means it's vs Jones but also empty sets and obvious passing downs. Obvious passing downs would be an argument if Williams actually came in on obvious passing downs. They basically rotated 2 series to 1 last year, with Jones getting extra burn in the red zone. Packers never ran 0 RB set last year so there were no empty sets. Tough to find actual 3rd down usage rate... and yes yes yes these stats are individually wrong, but in the aggregate they do tell the real story that Williams is just... meh. As Ray said, he's a glue guy. Glue guys belong in the locker room, not on the field. He's the Tom Crabtree of this team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: He wants 3 backs. which room does Tyler Ervin reside in ? I was guessing both RB and WR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TransientTexan Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 24 minutes ago, skibrett15 said: Clearly team saw him as a significant weakness on the roster though. I don't think you can necessarily infer this just from them picking Dillon. Drafts are about addressing the future, not immediate holes, especially in rounds 2-7. Sure, a few do contribute immediately, and the team's ecstatic when it happens, but that is not the baseline expectation. Both AJones and Williams will be free agents after this season. And as people have pointed out, big-dollar RB contracts generally don't end up being worth it in free agency. A late-2nd round RB has like a 21% chance of being a starter for the majority of his career. We're not even talking *good* starter, just starter. And that's just what he eventually develops into. Obviously even from the few players that are good enough, to develop into that, it's even a smaller subset that is that good in year 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 If your rookie 2nd round RB doesn't get more than 30% of the carries in his rookie year, that's already a disappointment. When you pick a RB, you're getting 4 years out of them and letting them walk. If vet RB contracts are bad, then rookie RB contracts are ok, but not if you punt the first year of their contract by not getting any value from them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighCalebR Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 1 hour ago, skibrett15 said: If your rookie 2nd round RB doesn't get more than 30% of the carries in his rookie year, that's already a disappointment. When you pick a RB, you're getting 4 years out of them and letting them walk. If vet RB contracts are bad, then rookie RB contracts are ok, but not if you punt the first year of their contract by not getting any value from them. So I'll ask you something that I got asked that I've been mulling over. Was Lacy worth it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uffdaswede Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 1 hour ago, skibrett15 said: If your rookie 2nd round RB doesn't get more than 30% of the carries in his rookie year, that's already a disappointment. When you pick a RB, you're getting 4 years out of them and letting them walk. If vet RB contracts are bad, then rookie RB contracts are ok, but not if you punt the first year of their contract by not getting any value from them. I think this is mostly true. This year might be a little different, though, due to uncertainty about fan safety/pre-season stuff. Nonetheless, they will want him hitting the truck stick pretty damn quick in the RB rotation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PossibleCabbage Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 I feel like Williams is guaranteed snaps because he's the best pass blocker of the lot (right now). Dillon is guaranteed snaps because in obvious running situations/short yardage he can get you more yards than Williams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 1 hour ago, HighCalebR said: So I'll ask you something that I got asked that I've been mulling over. Was Lacy worth it? I would say Lacy was worth it. Lacy also did not get selected with Aaron Jones/Jamaal Williams level players on the roster. RB on the roster at the end of the 2012 season 30 year old Ryan Grant and Cedric Benson 2nd year Alex Green 3rd year James Starks Dujuan Harris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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