2021 NFL Draft Thread

[squire12]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Thoughts on this quick mock...

1.29, 6.220, 7.256 for 1.32, 3.95
1.32 - Dillon Radunz [OT; North Dakota State]
2.62 for 4.127, '22 FRP (IND)
3.92 - Tay Gowan [CB; UCF]
3.95 - Milton Williams [DT; Louisiana Tech]
4.127 - Kendrick Green [OG/C; Illinois]
4.135 - Benjamin St-Juste [CB; Minnesota]
4.142 - Trill Williams [CB; Syracuse]
5.173 - Drew Dalman [C; Stanford]
5.178 - Justin Hillard [LB; Ohio State]
6.214 - Rhamondre Stevenson [RB; Oklahoma]

Not sure Indy can trade there 22 first with it being conditional in the Wentz trade

[VonKarman]

Radunz has 32" arms, no? That's a bit too short for me.

[cannondale]

28 minutes ago, VonKarman said:

Radunz has 32" arms, no? That's a bit too short for me.

33 1/4"

[VonKarman]

OK, not ideal, but enough to play tackle.

[ThatJerkDave]

Just now, VonKarman said:

OK, not ideal, but enough to play tackle.

https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=8437

[R T]

If there is a knock on Radunz it is probably that he only weighs 301 and being a 5th year Sr, is he already maxed out there? 

[OneTwoSixFive]

Our GM

Question. Do the Packers move up on days 1 and 2 of the draft ?  Do they move down ?  Do they do both..............or even stay where they are with each of the first three picks.

There is a lot to unpick, to decide what they do. First is the importance of tiers. If one tier runs out a couple of picks before a Packers pick, then it is attractive to attempt to find a partner to trade up with, to get that higher-tier player.

If, on the Packers board, a tier runs through the Packers pick and on for another 6-8 players, then the attraction is in trading back, picking up the extra pick (or at least a swap for higher one) and still getting a player in the same tier.

If neither of these cases are especially true, stay where you are.

Next is what can be kryptonite for GMs, favourites + impatience. A GM can watch a guy falling to them, a guy who is one of their favourites. They spend picks to trade up and get the guy so no-one else can nab him. Is that a wise move ? Sometimes it is, at other times your rating of an individual may place him many picks above the ranking of most other teams, or they see him as merely one guy in a whole group of similarly talented individuals. He could have fallen to you had you stayed put. GMs have their own tendencies on this. TT was mostly a  stay-put guy. Gute moves around the draft more.

My favourite scenario is that they move down from their first pick into the top area of round 2 (apologies to those that like to sit up all through the day 1 picks). With the draft capital they acquired from that, they can move up in round 2 without much, if any, additional cost. 

I would also like to see the Packers move up in round three, because the drop-off in talent through the third round can be fairly steep. If it costs them a 4th to do that, ok. The Packers have not had a great record with their third round picks and they are normally picking late in the round - so perhaps a move up can change their luck. Of course they did trade up for Oren Burks in round three, but that was moving from round 4 to the bottom part of round 3.

Any scenario that requires movement, needs a trading partner...............and one that can agree to a deal equitable to both sides. That is never a guarantee.

 

Does anyone here have their own feel for where the tiers lie, at least in the area before and after pick #29 ?

Edited April 17, 2021 by OneTwoSixFive

[packfanfb]

I hope the Packers don't reach for a CB after Newsome is gone with Holland or Moehrig on the board. Just take the best DB.

[packfanfb]

Less than 2 weeks away, here would be my targets depending on whether the Packers move up, stay put or move down, in no particular order: 

Trade up to Pick 21-26:

1. Teven Jenkins
2. Christian Barmore
3. Greg Newsome
4. Rashod Bateman
5. Zaven Collins

Stay at PIck 29: 

1. Any of the above if they fall
2. Jevon Holland
3. Trevon Moehrig
4. Sam Cosmi
5. Liam Eichenberg
6. Terrace Marshall
7. Jayson Oweh
8. JOK 

Trade down to Pick 33-37: 

1. Any of the guys above
2. Asante Samuel
3. Levi Onwuzirike
4. Daviyon Nixon
5. Dillon Radunz
6. Walter Little
7. Kadarius Toney
8. Carlos Basham
9. Creed Humphrey

[Brit Pack]

42 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Less than 2 weeks away, here would be my targets depending on whether the Packers move up, stay put or move down, in no particular order: 

Trade up to Pick 21-26:

1. Teven Jenkins
2. Christian Barmore
3. Greg Newsome
4. Rashod Bateman
5. Zaven Collins

Stay at PIck 29: 

1. Any of the above if they fall
2. Jevon Holland
3. Trevon Moehrig
4. Sam Cosmi
5. Liam Eichenberg
6. Terrace Marshall
7. Jayson Oweh
8. JOK 

Trade down to Pick 33-37: 

1. Any of the guys above
2. Asante Samuel
3. Levi Onwuzirike
4. Daviyon Nixon
5. Dillon Radunz
6. Walter Little
7. Kadarius Toney
8. Carlos Basham
9. Creed Humphrey

Looking at that, I think a trade back is the most attractive. 

Having said that, I'm guessing that quite a few of the players you got listed for a trade up will be there at 29. Also to get JOK that I feel would require a trade up and he is the only player that I would trade up to the 20's for. Apart from his athleticism whenever I watch him he is super smart as a player and diagnoses plays very quickly. I love him!!!!

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

Question. Do the Packers move up on days 1 and 2 of the draft ?  Do they move down ?  Do they do both..............or even stay where they are with each of the first three picks.

In Gute's 3 drafts with Green Bay, he's had four FRPs to play with and only once has he kept the original selection (#12 in 2019) and used that pick.  In 2018, he traded down from 14 to 27 before trading back up to 18 to select Jaire Alexander. With their FRP in 2019, he took Rashan Gary but he traded up from 30 (via New Orleans) to 21 for Darnell Savage. And last year, he traded up from 30 to 26 for Jordan Love.  But let's look at those draft day trades:

#14 -> #27 (New Orleans): #14 for #27, #147, '19 FRP
#27 -> #18 (Seattle): #27, #76, #186 for #18, #248
#30 -> #21 (Seattle): #30, #114, #118 for #21
#30 -> #26 (Miami): #30, #136 for #26

Based on Gute's comments about the trade down, it seems exceedingly unlikely we're going to see a trade similar to the New Orleans trade down.  It's interesting that we've traded up twice with Seattle.  We've also made draft day trades with the following teams: 

New Orleans (Marcus Davenport via trade down)
Seattle (Jaire Alexander via trade up)
Carolina (Oren Burks via trade up)
Seattle (Darnell Savage via trade up)
Miami (Jordan Love via trade up)

It does appear that Green Bay is more willing to move up to get their guy in the first round rather than risk him not falling.  I think there's clearly a connection between Seattle and GB's FO for obvious reasons, so I could see Green Bay trading up IF Seattle had a FRP.  But unfortunately they don't.  I'm not sure there's anything to suggest that they have any history with Miami, but a jump up to #18 would cost something similar to what they dealt for Jaire Alexander if they wanted to do so.  Given the Packers have dealt their 4th round pick (or two) in most of the trade ups, it seems logical that would be the bait.  It likely won't vault them up the board, but it could move them up a half a dozen spots if they desired.

[R T]

I would guess the Packers have a 1st round grade (tier grade for you 1265😉) on 16-18 non-QB's this year and if that is correct the Packers probably will need to trade up to that 21-23 range to land one of them. The Colts at 21 only have 6 picks this year and no 3rd rounder, would they be a player trying to recoup a 3rd? Or maybe the Jets at 23 just wanting to add draft capital for a rebuild? What also should be ask is why would another team trade if they also only have a player or two left in that tier? Takes two for this dance. 

[CWood21]

5 minutes ago, R T said:

I would guess the Packers have a 1st round grade (tier grade for you 1265😉) on 16-18 non-QB's this year and if that is correct the Packers probably will need to trade up to that 21-23 range to land one of them. The Colts at 21 only have 6 picks this year and no 3rd rounder, would they be a player trying to recoup a 3rd? Or maybe the Jets at 23 just wanting to add draft capital for a rebuild? What also should be ask is why would another team trade if they also only have a player or two left in that tier? Takes two for this dance. 

Teams are probably more willing to move down if they're short on picks.  Arizona (6 including 2 in the first 3 rounds), Houston (8 including 1 in the first 3 rounds), and Seattle (3 including 1 in the first 3 rounds).  Houston and Seattle are likely sitting out of Day 1 all together, but they'll likely be active on Day 2.  Seattle in particular seems like a logical trade up spot given Green Bay's history.  Green Bay could probably deal a 4th round pick and maybe a 6th round pick to move up to Seattle's spot, but I don't think they're going to do a double trade up with their first two picks.

[R T]

2 hours ago, packfanfb said:

I hope the Packers don't reach for a CB after Newsome is gone with Holland or Moehrig on the board. Just take the best DB.

One thing that is fairly certain is that the Packers won't reach for anyone from their board. 

[R T]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Teams are probably more willing to move down if they're short on picks.  Arizona (6 including 2 in the first 3 rounds), Houston (8 including 1 in the first 3 rounds), and Seattle (3 including 1 in the first 3 rounds).  Houston and Seattle are likely sitting out of Day 1 all together, but they'll likely be active on Day 2.  Seattle in particular seems like a logical trade up spot given Green Bay's history.  Green Bay could probably deal a 4th round pick and maybe a 6th round pick to move up to Seattle's spot, but I don't think they're going to do a double trade up with their first two picks.

Agree, if they stay put in the 1st, a trade up in the 2nd is very likely. The Packers currently have 10 picks, I'm thinking they end up in the 8 selected range. Expecting Gutes to be very active this year.