2021 NFL Draft Thread

[squire12]

27 minutes ago, cannondale said:

Just to keep things in perspective regarding RAS

Zadarius Smith - 3.75

Davante Adams - 6.53

David Bakhtiari - 6.74

Kenny Clark - 7.56

Oren Burks - 9.72

Jason Spriggs - 9.78

Kendal Donnerson - 9.98

Kevin King - 9.95

Josh Jackson - 9.72

https://relativeathleticscores.com/2020/12/31/green-bay-packers-ras-history/

How many of those were drafted when Brian Gutekunst has been the GM?  I think just Josh Jackson.  

Z Smith was a FA signing and had shown he could perform at the NFL level, and the RAS testing might be less valued.

[cannondale]

7 minutes ago, squire12 said:

How many of those were drafted when Brian Gutekunst has been the GM?  I think just Josh Jackson.  

Z Smith was a FA signing and had shown he could perform at the NFL level, and the RAS testing might be less valued.

I didn't dig far enough in regarding who was drafted by Gute, but this was inspired by a vid by Herman that mentioned in passing that MAYBE Gute puts a bit too much stock in RAS. This was a quick down and dirty list showing that it shouldn't be considered the be all end all. Nothing more. 

Edited April 15, 2021 by cannondale

[vegas492]

Here is an article that goes over the Gute drafts and RAS scores.  If he doesn't follow RAS closely, he certainly has someone who does, or they have their athletic scoring that is similar.  

I'm not saying at all that it is an end all be all.  But if we are looking at players that Gute is more likely to draft, RAS scores have to enter the equation.  

https://dairylandexpress.com/2021/04/01/green-bay-packers-brian-gutekunst-ras-draft/

And as we see, not all the high RAS guys can actually play.

[cannondale]

2 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Here is an article that goes over the Gute drafts and RAS scores.  If he doesn't follow RAS closely, he certainly has someone who does, or they have their athletic scoring that is similar.  

I'm not saying at all that it is an end all be all.  But if we are looking at players that Gute is more likely to draft, RAS scores have to enter the equation.  

https://dairylandexpress.com/2021/04/01/green-bay-packers-brian-gutekunst-ras-draft/

And as we see, not all the high RAS guys can actually play.

And my post certainly wasn't directed at any posting here. My biggest takeaway was just how many elite guys didn't score 8.0+

[craig]

59 minutes ago, cannondale said:

Just to keep things in perspective regarding RAS

Zadarius Smith - 3.75

Davante Adams - 6.53

David Bakhtiari - 6.74

Kenny Clark - 7.56

Oren Burks - 9.72

Jason Spriggs - 9.78

Kendal Donnerson - 9.98

Kevin King - 9.95

Josh Jackson - 9.72

https://relativeathleticscores.com/2020/12/31/green-bay-packers-ras-history/

Helpful.  RAS scores help explain why Bakhti, Z weren't drafted higher.

I wonder if some teams modify their valuations, using parts but not RAS in total?  For CB, size seems to be a huge RAS component.  Jackson and King  = big corners => great RAS.  Samuels is small, and most of his RAS-kill seemed small-size based.  Is it even possible to get a good RAS at his size?  

Simplistic, but I'm not sure Samuels being shorter/smaller than Jackson actually makes him "less athletic" by normal use of the term?  Obviously being smaller isn't conducive to success in the a physical, size-influenced sport of football, so size-based valuation makes total sense, and the Packers have a long heritage of prioritizing size. 

But being short doesn't inherently make a guy "less athletic" in the sense of quickness, flexibility, burst, body balance,, etc.? 

Scouts often talk about tight/loose hips.  3-cone assesses ability to turn and accelerate quickly.  But I wonder if sometimes smaller guys, despite the obvious disadvantages that follow, might not also tend to be a little quicker at change-of-direction, and have a little better capacity to mirror receivers?  And that while big guys can compete on 3-cone with practice and knowing in advance where the cones stand, that it may not be quite as easy for them to to stop-and-go on the fly as each play unfolds uniquely?  

Maybe I'm wondering whether King and Jackson score up great based on size, and solid 3-cone, but then in actual games when players are stopping and starting and changing directions in unpredictable ways, whether their quickness and change-of-direction capacities maybe aren't as athletic as RAS might suggest?  

 

[Joe]

12 hours ago, CWood21 said:

One is also viewed as a pure safety prospect, and the other is viewed as a CB-only prospect.  Not sure trying to compare them is valid.  And I'm not sure what makes Samuel a reach at 29.  I think he's in that second tier of CB prospects after Farley (medical concerns), Surtain, and Horn.

Lance Zierlein at nfl.com is a bit sour on him. He's got him graded at a 6.24/8 and 10 CB's graded higher.

[Packerraymond]

12 hours ago, CWood21 said:

One is also viewed as a pure safety prospect, and the other is viewed as a CB-only prospect.  Not sure trying to compare them is valid.  And I'm not sure what makes Samuel a reach at 29.  I think he's in that second tier of CB prospects after Farley (medical concerns), Surtain, and Horn.

He's a FSU DB. I hate how they play. Turn and bail at the snap. Never consistently pedal or press. Samuel is my 11th CB. Not my cup of tea.

[CWood21]

32 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

He's a FSU DB. I hate how they play. Turn and bail at the snap. Never consistently pedal or press. Samuel is my 11th CB. Not my cup of tea.

I made the same mistake with Ronald Darby, and he turned out to have a pretty solid career.  You're drafting him based on what you think he's going to be in the NFL, not necessarily what he showed at Florida State.

[Packerraymond]

7 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I made the same mistake with Ronald Darby, and he turned out to have a pretty solid career.  You're drafting him based on what you think he's going to be in the NFL, not necessarily what he showed at Florida State.

I was very low on Darby too, exactly, but you have no idea what he can do there. Darby learned it all, but there's a risk there. For being short and a mediocre athlete, it's probably going to have to be round 3 where I'm willing to take that risk.

[vegas492]

56 minutes ago, craig said:

Jackson and King  = big corners => great RAS.  Samuels is small, and most of his RAS-kill seemed small-size based.  Is it even possible to get a good RAS at his size?  

 

Cherry picking here, I apologize up front.

Jaire Alexander, combine results.  5'10'' 196.  4.38 40.  2.55 20 yard split.  1.52 10 yard split.  Bench of 14.  Vertical of 35.  Broad of 127.  20 yard shuttle 3.98.  3 cone, 6.71.  RAS Score:  9.54.  Yes, little guys can have high RAS scores.

ASj (just for you @Leader)  Pro day.  5'10'' 180.  4.45 40 (best of his at pro day).  20 yard shuttle at 4.13.  3 cone at 6.95.  Bench at 12.  Broad of 124. 35 inch vertical.  RAS Score:  6.42.

I think the RAS database used was back to 1987.

To me, the results are very different for the drills.  40 is very different.  Shuttle is very different.  3 cone is pretty different.  Bench is about the same.  Vertical is the same.

But that difference in RAS is staggering.  And regarding the drills results, ASJ did them at a Pro Day where typically results are better than at the combine.

I believe that a 5.0 score is "average" for the guys measured over time.  So ASJ is above average, just not near elite like JA was and is.

And ultimately, who knows how this will translate to on field production.  The RAS score hasn't helped Jackson much.

[craig]

No doubt.  Jaire is awesome athletically, we see that in real games, and that was already evident in his RAS.  Plus height-wise, that's more apples-to-apples.  Jaire profiles better in every way:  a chunk heavier, faster, longer arms, bigger hands.  Obviously he had a better profile, and his career has played to his athleticism.  

I'm just suggesting that what RAS and combines are able to measure may skew towards taller/bigger guys and away from shorter ones.  I suspect the same may apply to some degree to receivers, I think taller guys can profile great on RAS, but may not always have as quick stop-and-change-directions quickness capacity that shorter guys have, even if they did those very competitively in the practiced combine drills.   

By the way, in no way am I lobbying for samuel.  But *IF* Gute was to pick him in the 2nd or 3rd round or whatever, I'll hope he works out despite his crummy RAS.

Edited April 15, 2021 by craig

[CWood21]

Thoughts on this quick mock...

1.29, 6.220, 7.256 for 1.32, 3.95
1.32 - Dillon Radunz [OT; North Dakota State]
2.62 for 4.127, '22 FRP (IND)
3.92 - Tay Gowan [CB; UCF]
3.95 - Milton Williams [DT; Louisiana Tech]
4.127 - Kendrick Green [OG/C; Illinois]
4.135 - Benjamin St-Juste [CB; Minnesota]
4.142 - Trill Williams [CB; Syracuse]
5.173 - Drew Dalman [C; Stanford]
5.178 - Justin Hillard [LB; Ohio State]
6.214 - Rhamondre Stevenson [RB; Oklahoma]

[Packerraymond]

17 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Thoughts on this quick mock...

1.29, 6.220, 7.256 for 1.32, 3.95
1.32 - Dillon Radunz [OT; North Dakota State]
2.62 for 4.127, '22 FRP (IND)
3.92 - Tay Gowan [CB; UCF]
3.95 - Milton Williams [DT; Louisiana Tech]
4.127 - Kendrick Green [OG/C; Illinois]
4.135 - Benjamin St-Juste [CB; Minnesota]
4.142 - Trill Williams [CB; Syracuse]
5.173 - Drew Dalman [C; Stanford]
5.178 - Justin Hillard [LB; Ohio State]
6.214 - Rhamondre Stevenson [RB; Oklahoma]

No WR again would be hard to swallow. Love the OL picks though.

[R T]

14 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Thoughts on this quick mock...

1.29, 6.220, 7.256 for 1.32, 3.95
1.32 - Dillon Radunz [OT; North Dakota State]
2.62 for 4.127, '22 FRP (IND)
3.92 - Tay Gowan [CB; UCF]
3.95 - Milton Williams [DT; Louisiana Tech]
4.127 - Kendrick Green [OG/C; Illinois]
4.135 - Benjamin St-Juste [CB; Minnesota]
4.142 - Trill Williams [CB; Syracuse]
5.173 - Drew Dalman [C; Stanford]
5.178 - Justin Hillard [LB; Ohio State]
6.214 - Rhamondre Stevenson [RB; Oklahoma]

For me it is a little love and hate. 1st round trade is good. Radunz is good. Seems like IND is really getting the short end of the stick on the 2nd round trade. Did you mean IND's '22 SRP? Think that is way to high for Gowan. Williams there would be great. Will have to see them actually draft a 6'1" OL before I believe it with Greene. St-Juste and Williams are very good there. Love Dalman there, but doubling up on Centers? With Hillard's injury history and being a 6th year SR. I'm not sure he gets drafted, would love him as a UDFA though. Stevenson OK, but do they really need another big back? If was the Packers draft I would be OK with it, but....  

[ThatJerkDave]

3 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

No WR again would be hard to swallow. Love the OL picks though.

I think I would feel better about it if one of the CBs were a WR.  I will also fully admit that I know nothing about the center prospects, but we have Jenkins and Patrick, and just drafted Jake Hanson.  That interior line group is getting pretty crowded.