Are DEs ends the RBs of Defense?

[ET80]

8 minutes ago, m haynes said:

The QB is the #1 position. The next in line is LT.  Four LTs in the 1st, 15 picks.

I agree with this. If QB is #1, then the QBs primary defender from abuse is #2.

[HTTRDynasty]

25 minutes ago, m haynes said:

The QB is the #1 position. The next in line is LT.  Four LTs in the 1st, 15 picks.

This is how I rate the positions.  

QB

LT

CB (LD)

DE

DT

S

Take your pick on the others however WR and RBs are last in that order.

 

I think the 2020 LTs were picked high more-so due to a combination of positional scarcity at that position in the current NFL and those 4 guys all being better prospects than the majority of the prospects at other positions.  The overwhelming majority of drafts don't have 4 LTs taken in the first 15 picks.

For me, it's all about what scheme you run and the personnel you have (e.g. an extremely mobile QB doesn't need a great LT nearly as much as a statue in the pocket does).  I also think you're vastly underrating the value of WRs.

Here's an interesting PFF article on this subject: https://www.pff.com/news/draft-why-positional-value-matters-in-the-nfl-draft

 

Quote

 

WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT (WAR)

A few years back, our data science team took on the challenge of quantifying the value of the contributions each player on the football field makes over the course of a season based off of PFF’s play-by-play grading. They looked at how positive and negative performance impacts scoring and, ergo, winning in the NFL.

The result was PFF’s Wins Above Replacement metric (WAR). WAR has been a nearly universally accepted concept in baseball, but nothing had been attempted in the NFL. The basic gist is to try to measure how negatively a team would be affected should a certain player be lost, causing the franchise to go to the street to find a replacement. The average of the top 10 players at each position in the NFL from 2019 can be seen below. 

Position	Top-10 WAR Average
QB	2.5134
WR	0.701
S	0.6039
CB	0.5172
TE	0.3426
IOL	0.3212
OT	0.2968
ED	0.2783
LB	0.2762
RB	0.2166
DI	0.1868

 

Another way to look at this table is to consider the best-case scenario for any top draft pick. It’s also why we say that the market for top QB prospects completely skews any trade value chart. The value they bring to the table is three times that of any other position. Positions toward the bottom are best to avoid early in the draft, as they simply can’t bring the return on investment.

 

 

Edited July 20, 2020 by HTTRDynasty

[RamblinMan99]

I think safeties (particularly strong safeties) are more comparable to RBs. 

And even still, you can't compare a RB to a SS in terms of fearlessness.  

A SS has to basically put it all on the line.  

That's why it's generally not good to compare offensive positions to defensive positions and vice versa, because the goals are entirely different.  

[Tugboat]

If we're talking about DEs in an odd front, maybe, to an extent.  Especially if we're talking more, "good run defender" 5T sort of players.  DEs in an even front especially though, as edge rushers, are among the top-3 most valuable positions in the game.  

 

I feel like the NFL treats Safeties like the "RB of the defense".  Though in reality, it should probably be SAM/2-down LBers.

[TakeTheBallDeep]

I think people underrate the RB position, I'm not saying you have to have a great RB, but it certainly helps. With RBs its more about do you have 2-3 guys who can pick up first downs when needed, run the clock out, be a weapon in the passing game, pass bloc, keep the D honest, ect. Now if you can do that with 1 RB then great, if it means you use 2-3 then so be it, but the running game is important.

DEs are extremely important, but I think sometimes the Interior D-Line can be more important (Depending on team, scheme, roster) a couple of legit DTs can make average DEs look amazing and vice versa

[TOUCAN]

I would say the RB of the defense is one of the safeties tbqh

[SteelKing728]

On 7/15/2020 at 10:54 AM, cconocool said:

I was thinking this for a few years. On the Vikings defensive line, production along the defensive end position hasn't had a huge dip depending on who's playing. Better players do produce better stats, but it isn't a huge disparity against someone who is a back-up, paid less a fraction of what an elite player makes. 

That's because Andre Patterson is a Defensive Line Mastermind.

[diamondbull424]

On 7/20/2020 at 1:56 PM, HTTRDynasty said:

I think the 2020 LTs were picked high more-so due to a combination of positional scarcity at that position in the current NFL and those 4 guys all being better prospects than the majority of the prospects at other positions.  The overwhelming majority of drafts don't have 4 LTs taken in the first 15 picks.

For me, it's all about what scheme you run and the personnel you have (e.g. an extremely mobile QB doesn't need a great LT nearly as much as a statue in the pocket does).  I also think you're vastly underrating the value of WRs.

Here's an interesting PFF article on this subject: https://www.pff.com/news/draft-why-positional-value-matters-in-the-nfl-draft

 

 

This post is very HIGHLY underrated IMO. I often took at face value the conventional wisdom that IDL and Edge talents were more valuable than a WR. After the Geno Atkins vs AJ Green thread, I’ve come to realize that an elite WR is very much underrated and just might be the more important position. I think if a team is without a good QB then an elite WR is more important to that teams chances of winning than an elite IDL or elite edge.

Said another way, give Trubisky Megatron to throw to and even he couldn’t mess that up. But the better the QB the more the law of diminishing returns begins to influence the offense. If you have an elite QB, an elite WR is only going to increase offensive efficiency marginally over if you simply have a “good” WR and thus isn’t as valuable.

What inflates the value of an elite DI/edge has less to do with the actual value of the receiver and more to do with the rarity of finding a “good” edge in comparison to finding a “good” WR. So since Zadarius Smith (good edge) is far more difficult to find than DeVante Parker (good WR), than Smith inherently holds more value.

That above point is then confused with the notion that because Smith is worth more than Parker, that Geno Atkins (elite DI) or Khalil Mack (elite edge) are more influential in obtaining wins for a unit than AJ Green (elite WR) or Michael Thomas (for a more recent example).

I’m not truly confident either way, but I think if those WAR stats hold true under more research results, than perhaps it might be true that WR is indeed a more important position to have capable talent at than the pass rushers regardless of what conventional wisdom has to say about it.

[Danger]

On 7/20/2020 at 1:56 PM, HTTRDynasty said:

Quote

 

WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT (WAR)

A few years back, our data science team took on the challenge of quantifying the value of the contributions each player on the football field makes over the course of a season based off of PFF’s play-by-play grading. They looked at how positive and negative performance impacts scoring and, ergo, winning in the NFL.

The result was PFF’s Wins Above Replacement metric (WAR). WAR has been a nearly universally accepted concept in baseball, but nothing had been attempted in the NFL. The basic gist is to try to measure how negatively a team would be affected should a certain player be lost, causing the franchise to go to the street to find a replacement. The average of the top 10 players at each position in the NFL from 2019 can be seen below. 

Position	Top-10 WAR Average
QB	2.5134
WR	0.701
S	0.6039
CB	0.5172
TE	0.3426
IOL	0.3212
OT	0.2968
ED	0.2783
LB	0.2762
RB	0.2166
DI	0.1868

 

So you're telling me the Defensive Line doesn't matter? Hogwash.

[Deadpulse]

1 hour ago, Danger said:

 

So you're telling me the Defensive Line doesn't matter? Hogwash.

It matters, but you dont have to stack it with stud players. BB has been doing this successfully for like a decade. 

WAR doesnt really tell you the value of the position, just how big the gap is between all-star production and joe schmoe production. 

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, Deadpulse said:

It matters, but you dont have to stack it with stud players. BB has been doing this successfully for like a decade. 

WAR doesnt really tell you the value of the position, just how big the gap is between all-star production and joe schmoe production. 

Agreed. Ravens have largely done the same. While guys like Brandon Williams (3rd) and Michael Pierce (UDFA) have certainly done their thing, they also aren’t dominant pass rushers. Granted Calais Campbell will likely remedy the situation, but they’ve fielded top 10 defenses in four of the last five seasons without a dominant pass rusher inside.

Even at edge Suggs had been on the decline for years and thus gradually moved closer and closer to a replacement level skillset; Zadarius (4th) and Judon (5th round) have been his best running mates in recent seasons, yet minimal high level draft attention has been allocated to the positions in the form of a 1st/2nd round pick... and when Smith hit free agency the Ravens didn’t spend much effort in resigning him. The defense went from 3rd in DVOA with Suggs/Smith to 4th in DVOA without them. 

I’m sure a dominant edge/DI player like Campbell might take that 4th ranked defense back to a top 3 unit, but that improvement would likely be considered only “marginal” in the grand scheme of things.

That all said I’d be interested to know what the playoff WAR is for these positions. I wonder if perhaps a dominant DI might be more valuable come playoff time than a dominant WR. I mean maybe not because Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald, and Anquan Boldin put forth some of the most dominant playoffs I can remember and they all led to significant gains for their postseason teams... though I can’t recall scenarios where one DI/Edge so significantly tipped the scales. I can recall dominant units like the Giants and 49ers and I can recall JJ Watt being a game wrecker against the early 10s Ravens squads, but I can’t recall any scenarios where a dude stood out so independently. Perhaps Von Miller, but then he also has legit LB versatility.

[Archimedes]

On 7/20/2020 at 12:56 PM, HTTRDynasty said:

Position	Top-10 WAR Average
QB	2.5134
WR	0.701
S	0.6039
CB	0.5172

I agree with WR, S, and CB being the next 3 most valuable positions after QB, although I also think those positions are largely interchangeable. I do indeed think DEs have become the RB of the defense. That doesn’t mean I think they have NO value, but I think a dominant CB impacts the game on D more than a dominant DE, IMO.

As an old school(ish) football fan from the 80s who used to think Reggie White was the greatest football player I had ever seen (now supplanted by Brady), it’s been a painful transition for me. But I’m a BIG fan of analytics, and it’s hard to deny what they have all been saying about the decrease in impact of DEs. If there was any player who the Chiefs don’t have anymore that they could get back that I would want, it would be Peters. That’s HARD for me to say because of how much I dislike him.

[Deadpulse]

4 hours ago, Archimedes said:

I agree with WR, S, and CB being the next 3 most valuable positions after QB, although I also think those positions are largely interchangeable.

that isn't what this chart says. This is not how valuable a position is, it is the gap between all-pro level production vs average production. For instance, and average QB is less effective by A LOT than Mahomes is. On the flip side, an average DL can be nearly as productive on the field as a big name player. It has nothing to do with how important the position group as a whole is to the outcome of a game. 

[buno67]

not going through the prior pages.

 

LBs are to defenses, what RBs are to offenses.

[MSURacerDT55]

This aint it chief