Fire Pace and Nagy

[JAF-N72EX]

5 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

I guess? But you're nitpicking now, aren't you? The team results aren't much better. In fact, without Lovie at the helm, they're worse.

You can't really ignore missing on White, Trubisky, and Floyd. (Floyd was a reach, but a good player in a different system.) Jackson may never make any sort of all-anything team again, based on current level of play. 

I've never denied Pace has done some good things. It's the indefensible mistakes that do him in...

No, I wasn't nit-picking. Just saying that the differences between their two first 6 drafts were not even close is all. 

I don't think Pace missed on Floyd at all. I think he messed up by not giving following thru on Floyd's 5th year option at 13M.  And this is not some hindsight either. You can back last year on the forum when I was practically the only one who vouched for him. 

[JAF-N72EX]

7 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

You're removing that value by using a median of the CarAV by round. That penalizes a team like the Chiefs who drafted an extreme outlier that has thrust them into perennial SB contention.

It's balancing it....that's all. I used median because like I said using averages also does the opposite. It props up teams who may have only drafted one very good player. 

Like I said when i posted something similar last year, there are flaws in the formula and I recognize that it isn't perfect but it's the only thing that I'm aware of that grades each players career on the same scale. 

Edited January 6, 2021 by JAF-N72EX

[abstract_thought]

Just now, JAF-N72EX said:

It's balancing it....that's all. I used median because like I said using averages also does the opposite. It props up teams who may have only drafted one very good player. 

Like I said when i posted something similar last year, there are flaws in the formula and I recognize that it isn't perfect, but it's the only thing, that I'm aware of, that grades each players career on the same scale. 

Teams who have drafted one very good player should be rewarded. You're trying to balance something that shouldn't be balanced that way.

The best way to do this would be to look at Total Career AV above positional average, normalized by draft position. Everything else is unnecessary. You shouldn't reward GMs for making fewer picks and you certainly shouldn't ignore superstars.

[JAF-N72EX]

2 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

Teams who have drafted one very good player should be rewarded. You're trying to balance something that shouldn't be balanced that way.

The best way to do this would be to look at Total Career AV above positional average, normalized by draft position. Everything else is unnecessary. You shouldn't reward GMs for making fewer picks and you certainly shouldn't ignore superstars.

A team should be rewarded for drafting 1 good player and 4 or 5 bad ones? That's what I mean about using averages in this situation. If a team drafts 5 players in a single round and only one of them has a high WCAV then that players high WCAV is going to inadvertently make that team look better than they are. 

Example: Saints in the 2nd round. They have drafted Hau'oli Kikaha, Michael Thomas, Von Bell, Marcus Williams, and Erik McCoy. Going by averages puts them at #2 in the league and I don't think I need to tell what's wrong with this picture. 

[beardown3231]

8 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

A team should be rewarded for drafting 1 good player and 4 or 5 bad ones? That's what I mean about using averages in this situation. If a team drafts 5 players in a single round and only one of them has a high WCAV then that players high WCAV is going to inadvertently make that team look better than they are. 

Example: Saints in the 2nd round. They have drafted Hau'oli Kikaha, Michael Thomas, Von Bell, Marcus Williams, and Erik McCoy. Going by averages puts them at #2 in the league and I don't think I need to tell what's wrong with this picture. 

I'd rather have 1 great player in a draft than 2-3 good or solid ones. Would you rather have Mahomes in 2017 or Jackson AND Cohen?

 

10 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Ummm....about those teams...

I realize they're not in the playoffs, but their FO has had a lot more success drafting and/or putting out a good product on a consistent basis. Again I put an asterisk next to the Cardinals. Philly now seems like a mess due to their psychotic HC. The Niners have had a really solid last few years.

I'd definitely take the Cardinals and Niners' rosters over the Bears currently

[abstract_thought]

9 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

A team should be rewarded for drafting 1 good player and 4 or 5 bad ones? That's what I mean about using averages in this situation. If a team drafts 5 players in a single round and only one of them has a high WCAV then that players high WCAV is going to inadvertently make that team look better than they are. 

Example: Saints in the 2nd round. They have drafted Hau'oli Kikaha, Michael Thomas, Von Bell, Marcus Williams, and Erik McCoy. Going by averages puts them at #2 in the league and I don't think I need to tell what's wrong with this picture. 

There's absolutely nothing wrong with it because they drafted a LEGITIMATE SUPERSTAR.

There is value in drafting a superstar. You're throwing that value out when you use the median. You're basically ignoring the Michael Thomas, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Donald type picks. Those are the picks GMs should be praised for.

Drafting isn't simply about avoiding busts. If you drafted Nick Kwiatkowski with every pick, you wouldn't have a great team. There's huge value in the NFL in finding the superstar players.

[WindyCity]

Michael Thomas-Super Star

Vonn Bell-Good starter

Marcus Williams-Very good starter

Eric McCoy-Elite OLmen

 

That is exceptional work in the 2nd round.

[Superman(DH23)]

4 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

I'd rather have 1 great player in a draft than 2-3 good or solid ones. Would you rather have Mahomes in 2017 or Jackson AND Cohen?

 

I realize they're not in the playoffs, but their FO has had a lot more success drafting and/or putting out a good product on a consistent basis. Again I put an asterisk next to the Cardinals. Philly now seems like a mess due to their psychotic HC. The Niners have had a really solid last few years.

I'd definitely take the Cardinals and Niners' rosters over the Bears currently

The 9ers have 1 playoff appearance since Jim Harbaugh left, how is that more consistent?  They're drafts have actually been really bad.  They basically draft 1 good player a year.  That coaching staff covers up a lot of warts from the draft. If they dont have Shanny, they are a 3 win team every year.

[GBHalas]

Here's a question I don't think has been answered.  Usually successful coaching staffs have their coordinators up for head coaching jobs and that's the standard practice.  Well there's information that Champ Kelly is being looked at for two GM positions, Carolina and Denver.  My question is if Pace is looked at as someone on the hot seat and should be fired, how is it that this is the second person from his front office with the possibility of being promoted to run their own team with the first one being Joe Douglas?  Maybe this is all media and fan driven hyperbole and he is well respected in the football world.

Edited January 6, 2021 by GBHalas
punction

[WindyCity]

1 minute ago, GBHalas said:

Here's a question I don't think has been answered.  Usually successful coaching staffs have their coordinators up for head coaching jobs and that's the standard practice.  Well there's information that Champ Kelly is being looked at for two GM positions, Carolina and Denver.  My question is if Pace is looked at as someone on the hot seat and should be fired, how is it that this is the second person from his front office with the possibility of being promoted to run their own team with the first one being Joe Douglas.  Maybe this is all media and fan driven hyperbole and he is well respected in the football world.

He has a long history in Denver and with Fangio.

Kelly may be very good. Just because Pace screws things up too often does not mean he doesn't have good people working for him. The same way a bad coach can have good coordinators working for him.

John Fox and Vic Fangio come to mind.

[GBHalas]

3 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

He has a long history in Denver and with Fangio.

Kelly may be very good. Just because Pace screws things up too often does not mean he doesn't have good people working for him. The same way a bad coach can have good coordinators working for him.

John Fox and Vic Fangio come to mind.

That's may be true with Kelly and Fangio, BUT again bad teams don't get their coordinators promoted and that doesn't explain Carolina, and Fangio didn't get the Denver job until the Bears were successful.  No one called when they were 6-10.  Also that doesn't explain Douglas getting the Jets job.  If you bring up Gates, then why does Douglas still have the gig since Gates was fired?  Bad head coaches get fired and their coodinators rehired in the same positions or have to take a step down.  Sorry I don't think your reasons hold merit.

[dll2000]

Pace has been very good in a lot of areas, but you still need a complete team to compete or at least not one with a glaring weakness.

Oline has been mostly bad as a unit, TE has been bad, WR has been hit and miss, QB has been miss.

You can over emphasize some positions and get away with being weaker elsewhere for example:

If you have a great QB; WRs and TEs can be not great.  If you have a great O line; RBs can be not great. If you have a great D line; LBs can be not great.

Pace has not achieved a great team because lack in key position areas of offense from season to season.

We get that QB is a problem and not easily solved.   That is somewhat excusable because 32 teams are trying to solve same problem and there is scarcity.    It is hard to do and honestly some luck is involved.   Other areas are less excusable.  

Pace sees a deficiency and tries to bring in a bunch of guys to solve it the following year.  For example when he brought in ARob, Gabriel and Burton in 2018 to address lack in skill talent.  But point is it doesn't do any good for year with the deficiency.      

But he was rebuilding from bare cupboard Dan, that's not fair - okay fine.    

But in 2019 he did not properly address TE or OL and then you have predictable offensive problems.  A good RB and a good WR is not going to carry an offense with an average at best QB and O line and no defense is so good to make up for it - not even '85 Bears or SB Ravens.      

2019 year was supposed to be SB year.  It was year they were building to and it all came apart because glaring deficiencies were not properly addressed.   OL and TE needed to be upgraded in 2019 not 2020.   The QB was what he was and wasn't being changed, it was MT or no one and you had to hope light came on.   Andrew Luck wasn't suddenly coming to Bears.  RB was simply not main problem holding them back that they treated it as.   Even if Bears were a RB away (which is never case) one of best young RBs in entire  league who just so happened to play for you HC AND led league in rushing for him fell into your lap out for a song.   A song!    And you dropped ball because you didn't stand up to ownership on a little bit of controversy.   Pace dropped ball in 2019 big time.   He thought it was on autopilot and all young players would get better in natural progression from 2018 and vets would stay same (so did I or I hoped).   Didn't happen.  

Again in 2020 Goldman opted out and D line was not upgraded to compensate.  (Quinn is not DL but edge.)   So he left DL predictably deficient and it cost them several games IMO.   This was not a surprise.    Just like 2019 offensive problems were not a surprise.   Yes he addressed TE in draft and FA and brought in Ifedi and new O line coach, even assuming that managed to solved deficiencies there (which was honestly a long shot), the deficiency in middle of your defense was going to be a known problem and it was ignored.    

It looks like OL was a lot of result of poor personnel choices of guys you already had on roster and scheme. Maybe that isn't entirely Pace's fault.   Still needed to be upgraded as a priority and Pace got somewhat lucky it came together late.   Not sure who deserves credit for that or blame for early decisions and play.  For much of season though it was predictably atrocious.  

 

 

 

 

[abstract_thought]

50 minutes ago, GBHalas said:

Here's a question I don't think has been answered.  Usually successful coaching staffs have their coordinators up for head coaching jobs and that's the standard practice.  Well there's information that Champ Kelly is being looked at for two GM positions, Carolina and Denver.  My question is if Pace is looked at as someone on the hot seat and should be fired, how is it that this is the second person from his front office with the possibility of being promoted to run their own team with the first one being Joe Douglas?  Maybe this is all media and fan driven hyperbole and he is well respected in the football world.

I think citing Joe Douglas is a bit unfair given he spent only 1 year with Pace, but it's an interesting point.

I'd say that Pace himself is fairly inexperienced. He's pulled a lot of these guys from other organizations. Champ Kelly is a great example - his credentials were impressive before he came to the Bears. 

[WindyCity]

42 minutes ago, GBHalas said:

That's may be true with Kelly and Fangio, BUT again bad teams don't get their coordinators promoted and that doesn't explain Carolina, and Fangio didn't get the Denver job until the Bears were successful.  No one called when they were 6-10.  Also that doesn't explain Douglas getting the Jets job.  If you bring up Gates, then why does Douglas still have the gig since Gates was fired?  Bad head coaches get fired and their coodinators rehired in the same positions or have to take a step down.  Sorry I don't think your reasons hold merit.

That isn't true at all.

Coordinators off bad teams are interviewing right now. Joe Brady [Carolina], Robert Saleh [SF].

[beardown3231]

1 hour ago, Superman(DH23) said:

The 9ers have 1 playoff appearance since Jim Harbaugh left, how is that more consistent?  They're drafts have actually been really bad.  They basically draft 1 good player a year.  That coaching staff covers up a lot of warts from the draft. If they dont have Shanny, they are a 3 win team every year.

Every draft since Pace got here the Niners have taken at least 2 good players except 2016 (that 1 good player is a star)

2015- Armstead, Tartt, Brown

2016- Buckner

2017- Witherspoon, Kittle

2018- McGlinchey, Warner

2019- Bosa, Samuel, Wishnowsky

2020- Kinlaw, Aiyuk

Edited January 6, 2021 by beardown3231