Thelonebillsfan Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 The reason to give up the 2 seed is pretty clearly that they think Ben needs the week off to not be shot for the playoffs, which isn't a bad gambit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 (edited) 25 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said: I don’t get it. 2 seed still at play, and you can prevent divisional foe from getting in. Not to mention you are in a funk, 1-3 in last 4 and your only win wasn’t exactly pretty. I understand maybe wanting to try to angle for a round 1 matchup vs Cleveland, but then what? Travel to Buffalo? Goal should be SB run not to win a wild card game. You inadvertently made an excellent case for resting starters this weekend. We all agree with how valuable a bye is for teams making a Super Bowl run. Rest = bye... so Tomlin is astutely awarding his team a bye in making this move. There is no other way for the Steelers to earn a much-needed bye. Edited December 29, 2020 by Shanedorf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKillerNacho Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Just now, Shanedorf said: You inadvertently made an excellent case for resting starters this weekend. We all agree with how valuable a bye is for teams making a Super Bowl run. Rest = bye... so Tomlin is astutely awarding his team a bye in making this move. There is no other way for the Steelers to earn a much-needed bye. Well The bye isn't merely useful for the extra rest, nor is it even the primary reason why the Bye is so desired. More importantly, a playoff Bye eliminates one game in which you must lose... The Chiefs & Packers have to win only three games to secure the Lombardi - everyone else needs four. Home-field advantage is also a huge advantage. By conceding versus the Browns, they're essentially saying resting a few starters is worth the possibility to have to travel to Buffalo in round 2 instead of hosting the game at Pittsburgh. That's not exactly irrelevant, either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wackywabbit Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 lame Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gmen Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 "Son, fetch my helmet" - Myles Garrett probably 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AkronsWitness Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 45 minutes ago, Forge said: Congrats Brown fans! I mean, Ben isn't good, but I've seen Mason play and this is 100% in your favor Im not worried about Ben. Im worried about the Steelers defense against the Browns offense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 minute ago, AkronsWitness said: Im not worried about Ben. Im worried about the Steelers defense against the Browns offense. That's fair lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 32 minutes ago, Thelonebillsfan said: The reason to give up the 2 seed is pretty clearly that they think Ben needs the week off to not be shot for the playoffs, which isn't a bad gambit. This isn't a popular move, but I 100% understand the impetus behind it. I don't know that anyone looks at this team for the last 3.5 games and thinks that they can be a second home game away from being a real contender. I can certainly understand the thinking that maybe a week of rest after a truly bizarre schedule for the year is in the best interest of the team over the course of multiple playoff weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 17 minutes ago, Shanedorf said: You inadvertently made an excellent case for resting starters this weekend. We all agree with how valuable a bye is for teams making a Super Bowl run. Rest = bye... so Tomlin is astutely awarding his team a bye in making this move. There is no other way for the Steelers to earn a much-needed bye. Especially when paired with the fact that due to attendance restrictions, home field doesn’t mean quite as much this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 After thinking this through I can understand a little more why PIT would take Option 1 below (all numbers from 538): (1) Bye week in week 17 + Home game vs CLE (77%) or BAL (23%) (depends on outcome of MIA/BUF) 65% chance to beat CLE 80% chance to beat BAL (2) Grind in week 17 + Home game vs IND 47% chance to beat IND Odds of moving onto Divisional Round: (1) BONUS BYE WEEK PLUS: (.77)*(.65) = 50% chance of beating CLE (.23)*(.80) = 18% chance of beating BLT 68% chance of moving on (2) No Bye Week PLUS: 47% chance of moving on 77% chance of getting 3 seed even with a win (BUF beats MIA) ~60% chance of #2 seed Buffalo winning in wild card round vs BAL = (.47)*(.77)*(.60) = 22% chance of having to play IN Buffalo in divisional round So you trade a 22% chance of traveling in Divisional for a 21% increased chance of winning wild card + a BYE It makes more sense when looking at matchups 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, incognito_man said: After thinking this through I can understand a little more why PIT would take Option 1 below (all numbers from 538): (1) Bye week in week 17 + Home game vs CLE (77%) or BAL (23%) (depends on outcome of MIA/BUF) 65% chance to beat CLE 80% chance to beat BAL (2) Grind in week 17 + Home game vs IND 47% chance to beat IND Odds of moving onto Divisional Round: (1) BONUS BYE WEEK PLUS: (.77)*(.65) = 50% chance of beating CLE (.23)*(.80) = 18% chance of beating BLT 68% chance of moving on (2) No Bye Week PLUS: 47% chance of moving on 77% chance of getting 3 seed even with a win (BUF beats MIA) ~60% chance of #2 seed Buffalo winning in wild card round vs BAL = (.47)*(.77)*(.60) = 22% chance of having to play IN Buffalo in divisional round So you trade a 22% chance of traveling in Divisional for a 21% increased chance of winning wild card + a BYE It makes more sense when looking at matchups Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomas5737 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 If the Steelers controlled their own destiny with the 2 seed I think they may give all they got. Their scenarios are: They play everyone and win but the Bills win and they are still the 3 seed They play everyone and win and the Bills lose they become the 2 seed They play everyone and lose and they are still the 3 seed They rest guys and win but the Bills win they are still the 3 seed They rest guys and lose they are the 3 seed They rest guys and win and the Bills lose they are the 2 seed 5 of the 6 scenarios favor resting guys. If there was a chance to get a bye and rest guys you'd have to play for it. That Bye would be important to get guys rested for a long playoff run. With that not in play this is probably the next best thing for the long run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thelonebillsfan Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 34 minutes ago, Forge said: This isn't a popular move, but I 100% understand the impetus behind it. I don't know that anyone looks at this team for the last 3.5 games and thinks that they can be a second home game away from being a real contender. I can certainly understand the thinking that maybe a week of rest after a truly bizarre schedule for the year is in the best interest of the team over the course of multiple playoff weeks. Also like... if you're gonna give up on a home game... this is the year to do it right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsthomp2007 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Good for Mason...way to get in there and earn something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
candyman93 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Steelers haven’t had a bye week since week 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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