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Steelers to start QB Mason Rudolph over Ben Roethlisberger versus Browns


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25 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

I don’t get it. 2 seed still at play, and you can prevent divisional foe from getting in. Not to mention you are in a funk, 1-3 in last 4 and your only win wasn’t exactly pretty.

I understand maybe wanting to try to angle for a round 1 matchup vs Cleveland, but then what? Travel to Buffalo? Goal should be SB run not to win a wild card game.

You inadvertently made an excellent case for resting starters this weekend. We all agree with how valuable a bye is for teams making a Super Bowl run.  Rest = bye... so Tomlin is astutely awarding his team a bye in making this move. There is no other way for the Steelers to earn a much-needed bye. 

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Just now, Shanedorf said:

You inadvertently made an excellent case for resting starters this weekend. We all agree with how valuable a bye is for teams making a Super Bowl run.  Rest = bye... so Tomlin is astutely awarding his team a bye in making this move. There is no other way for the Steelers to earn a much-needed bye. 

Well

The bye isn't merely useful for the extra rest, nor is it even the primary reason why the Bye is so desired. More importantly, a playoff Bye eliminates one game in which you must lose... The Chiefs & Packers have to win only three games to secure the Lombardi - everyone else needs four.

Home-field advantage is also a huge advantage. By conceding versus the Browns, they're essentially saying resting a few starters is worth the possibility to have to travel to Buffalo in round 2 instead of hosting the game at Pittsburgh. That's not exactly irrelevant, either.

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32 minutes ago, Thelonebillsfan said:

The reason to give up the 2 seed is pretty clearly that they think Ben needs the week off to not be shot for the playoffs, which isn't a bad gambit.

This isn't a popular move, but I 100% understand the impetus behind it. I don't know that anyone looks at this team for the last 3.5 games and thinks that they can be a second home game away from being a real contender. I can certainly understand the thinking that maybe a week of rest after a truly bizarre schedule for the year is in the best interest of the team over the course of multiple playoff weeks. 

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17 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

You inadvertently made an excellent case for resting starters this weekend. We all agree with how valuable a bye is for teams making a Super Bowl run.  Rest = bye... so Tomlin is astutely awarding his team a bye in making this move. There is no other way for the Steelers to earn a much-needed bye. 

Especially when paired with the fact that due to attendance restrictions, home field doesn’t mean quite as much this year.

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After thinking this through I can understand a little more why PIT would take Option 1 below (all numbers from 538):

(1) Bye week in week 17 + Home game vs CLE (77%) or BAL (23%) (depends on outcome of MIA/BUF)

  • 65% chance to beat CLE
  • 80% chance to beat BAL

(2) Grind in week 17 + Home game vs IND

  • 47% chance to beat IND

Odds of moving onto Divisional Round:

(1)

  • BONUS BYE WEEK PLUS:
  • (.77)*(.65) = 50% chance of beating CLE
  • (.23)*(.80) = 18% chance of beating BLT
  • 68% chance of moving on

(2)

  • No Bye Week PLUS:
  • 47% chance of moving on
  • 77% chance of getting 3 seed even with a win (BUF beats MIA)
  • ~60% chance of #2 seed Buffalo winning in wild card round vs BAL = (.47)*(.77)*(.60) = 22% chance of having to play IN Buffalo in divisional round

So you trade a 22% chance of traveling in Divisional for a 21% increased chance of winning wild card + a BYE

It makes more sense when looking at matchups

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2 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

After thinking this through I can understand a little more why PIT would take Option 1 below (all numbers from 538):

(1) Bye week in week 17 + Home game vs CLE (77%) or BAL (23%) (depends on outcome of MIA/BUF)

  • 65% chance to beat CLE
  • 80% chance to beat BAL

(2) Grind in week 17 + Home game vs IND

  • 47% chance to beat IND

Odds of moving onto Divisional Round:

(1)

  • BONUS BYE WEEK PLUS:
  • (.77)*(.65) = 50% chance of beating CLE
  • (.23)*(.80) = 18% chance of beating BLT
  • 68% chance of moving on

(2)

  • No Bye Week PLUS:
  • 47% chance of moving on
  • 77% chance of getting 3 seed even with a win (BUF beats MIA)
  • ~60% chance of #2 seed Buffalo winning in wild card round vs BAL = (.47)*(.77)*(.60) = 22% chance of having to play IN Buffalo in divisional round

So you trade a 22% chance of traveling in Divisional for a 21% increased chance of winning wild card + a BYE

It makes more sense when looking at matchups

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If the Steelers controlled their own destiny with the 2 seed I think they may give all they got.

Their scenarios are:

They play everyone and win but the Bills win and they are still the 3 seed
They play everyone and win and the Bills lose they become the 2 seed
They play everyone and lose and they are still the 3 seed
They rest guys and win but the Bills win they are still the 3 seed
They rest guys and lose they are the 3 seed
They rest guys and win and the Bills lose they are the 2 seed

5 of the 6 scenarios favor resting guys.

If there was a chance to get a bye and rest guys you'd have to play for it. That Bye would be important to get guys rested for a long playoff run. With that not in play this is probably the next best thing for the long run.

 

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34 minutes ago, Forge said:

This isn't a popular move, but I 100% understand the impetus behind it. I don't know that anyone looks at this team for the last 3.5 games and thinks that they can be a second home game away from being a real contender. I can certainly understand the thinking that maybe a week of rest after a truly bizarre schedule for the year is in the best interest of the team over the course of multiple playoff weeks. 

Also like... if you're gonna give up on a home game... this is the year to do it right?

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