Awsi Dooger Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Fade the public is a moronic strategy. Complete waste of time. I can't believe anyone touts that or brags about it. We charted it for years when I worked in sportsbooks, the small bets. The public is dependably 50/50 or slightly above that every year in every sport. But the public has poor money management and gets inferior numbers. That was always the distinct gap between sharp guys and public. The big tickets we sold were invariably at a superior price that the typical small wager. Over time that is all the difference. Besides, it is much more basic than that. Losing bettors look for reasons to oppose teams or oppose other bettors. That is rank stupidity. It is wasteful spite. It is like having a problem in your home, asking your idiot neighbor for advice, and doing the opposite of what he says. Meanwhile the proper approach is to identify an expert and do what he says. With...not against. The same principal holds up in speculating of any type. If you are picking a stock you should have a positive reason for doing so, even if it's simply following an astute investor. Likewise in sports betting during my 24 years in Las Vegas and subsequently I never paid any attention to anyone who said they were betting against. That is flawed beyond belief. When you wager against you are inheriting instead of selecting. The most common and glaring gaffe of all is to see a team get blown out, and then exclaim, "I'm betting against them every week!" Well that's wonderful. Now you'll inherit some team next week that has no idea how to win by 10 points but they are favored by 10 solely because of what happened last week. Find angles that identify teams to bet with. The only bet-against angles I use are when mediocre teams are favored by too much. Or find a top handicapper to follow. Keep the focus on with, not against, and you'll never go wrong. Often when I was in a wagering slump in Las Vegas I'd sit back and simply identify the 3 best teams playing that day. Then I'd wager on all 3 of them. It was amazing how well that worked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
candyman93 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Prediction: Mahommes throws a pick 6 late in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 why do the Chiefs look sleepy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeptunePenguins Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Awsi Dooger said: Fade the public is a moronic strategy. Complete waste of time. I can't believe anyone touts that or brags about it. We charted it for years when I worked in sportsbooks, the small bets. The public is dependably 50/50 or slightly above that every year in every sport. But the public has poor money management and gets inferior numbers. That was always the distinct gap between sharp guys and public. The big tickets we sold were invariably at a superior price that the typical small wager. Over time that is all the difference. Besides, it is much more basic than that. Losing bettors look for reasons to oppose teams or oppose other bettors. That is rank stupidity. It is wasteful spite. It is like having a problem in your home, asking your idiot neighbor for advice, and doing the opposite of what he says. Meanwhile the proper approach is to identify an expert and do what he says. With...not against. The same principal holds up in speculating of any type. If you are picking a stock you should have a positive reason for doing so, even if it's simply following an astute investor. Likewise in sports betting during my 24 years in Las Vegas and subsequently I never paid any attention to anyone who said they were betting against. That is flawed beyond belief. When you wager against you are inheriting instead of selecting. The most common and glaring gaffe of all is to see a team get blown out, and then exclaim, "I'm betting against them every week!" Well that's wonderful. Now you'll inherit some team next week that has no idea how to win by 10 points but they are favored by 10 solely because of what happened last week. Find angles that identify teams to bet with. The only bet-against angles I use are when mediocre teams are favored by too much. Or find a top handicapper to follow. Keep the focus on with, not against, and you'll never go wrong. Often when I was in a wagering slump in Las Vegas I'd sit back and simply identify the 3 best teams playing that day. Then I'd wager on all 3 of them. It was amazing how well that worked. Please that makes no sense. You should pick the most balanced team to win and not go off some convoluted stuff that has no basis in reality. The reality is that Brady is playing and the Bucs have an elite defense. The Chiefs are broken and Mahomes is overrated and Andy Reid is an awful coach. The Bucs easily win here. Anyone that disagrees doesn't live in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaFellSBXLIXMVP Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, candyman93 said: Prediction: Mahommes throws a pick 6 late in the game. Pretty unlikely prediction because Mahomes rarely throws INTs anyways and if it's late in the game that means they are losing thus the returner wont try to score, probably give up immediately. But gonna hope you nail it. A pick6 late is game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Screw it I'm going with the upset. Bucs 26-22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, NeptunePenguins said: The Chiefs are broken and Mahomes is overrated and Andy Reid is an awful coach. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
candyman93 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Felt all year Tampa Bay was criminally underrated and their defense was elite. Tampa Bay - 36 Kansas City - 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Kinda surprise how the media didn't talk about how bad Tom was in the 2h vs the Packers. He does that this game and the Bucs will get blown out. Not sure Tom can go point for point with Mahomes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeptunePenguins Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, agarcia34 said: Kinda surprise how the media didn't talk about how bad Tom was in the 2h vs the Packers. He does that this game and the Bucs will get blown out. Not sure Tom can go point for point with Mahomes You aren't a true NFL fan if you think that. Brady will easily outplay Mahomes tonight. That much is guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, NeptunePenguins said: You aren't a true NFL fan if you think that. Brady will easily outplay Mahomes tonight. That much is guaranteed. lol oook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucsDraftGeek47 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 LFG BUCS 35-28 Tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DontTazeMeBro Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Another shout out to the healthcare workers. Never any love for the food supply chain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelKing728 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 How do they put him on TV??? Omg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucsDraftGeek47 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, SteelKing728 said: How do they put him on TV??? Omg right gross 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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