2021 GB Roster & Free Agents

[VicPez]

19 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Wilkerson broke his leg?

I meant that less as "Here's an example of an injury prone d-lineman that didn't work out" (it was a freak injury, and it's not like Wilkerson had a huge injury history) and more of a "Here's an example of what can happen when you bring in one guy from the outside and expect him to contribute hugely to a position group."  Watt is better than Wilkerson even at this stage of his career, but he's going to be more expensive and his injury history means that there's going to be more of an injury risk.

[AlexGreen#20]

22 minutes ago, VicPez said:

I meant that less as "Here's an example of an injury prone d-lineman that didn't work out" (it was a freak injury, and it's not like Wilkerson had a huge injury history) and more of a "Here's an example of what can happen when you bring in one guy from the outside and expect him to contribute hugely to a position group."  Watt is better than Wilkerson even at this stage of his career, but he's going to be more expensive and his injury history means that there's going to be more of an injury risk.

Isn't the counter point to that David Bakhtiari who was home grown with a fairly clean bill of health who blew his knee up before the playoffs? Injuries can hit anybody.

[VicPez]

8 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Isn't the counter point to that David Bakhtiari who was home grown with a fairly clean bill of health who blew his knee up before the playoffs? Injuries can hit anybody.

Yeah, absolutely. And it's doubly unfortunate that Bakhtiari got injured after signing a huge contract extension.

But you sign Bakhtiari to a long-term contract because he had a limited injury history and he plays a premium position with no sign of decline.  The injury there is an injury you can't see coming, that you had no reason to expect, and something you never really had any chance to avoid. 

If you sign J.J. Watt, who has played three seasons' worth of games in the last five years and whose play is on the decline, and then he ends up getting hurt, that's a situation where you're making a decision to take on a heightened injury risk for a lower reward.  The difference is that Green Bay had no way of anticipating the Bakhtiari injury, outside of a general awareness that any player can get hurt at any time.  With Watt, you have reason to believe that the chances of him getting hurt are higher.

And that's not to say that I won't be rooting hard for him if the Packers pick him up (especially if they get him on a team friendly contract) -- I'll just be slightly terrified.

[Nick_gb]

45 minutes ago, VicPez said:

Yeah, absolutely. And it's doubly unfortunate that Bakhtiari got injured after signing a huge contract extension.

But you sign Bakhtiari to a long-term contract because he had a limited injury history and he plays a premium position with no sign of decline.  The injury there is an injury you can't see coming, that you had no reason to expect, and something you never really had any chance to avoid. 

If you sign J.J. Watt, who has played three seasons' worth of games in the last five years and whose play is on the decline, and then he ends up getting hurt, that's a situation where you're making a decision to take on a heightened injury risk for a lower reward.  The difference is that Green Bay had no way of anticipating the Bakhtiari injury, outside of a general awareness that any player can get hurt at any time.  With Watt, you have reason to believe that the chances of him getting hurt are higher.

And that's not to say that I won't be rooting hard for him if the Packers pick him up (especially if they get him on a team friendly contract) -- I'll just be slightly terrified.

I think you’re missing the point here. Wilkerson signing shouldn’t give you nightmares about signing another DL. 
 

1. The contract he signed was extremely team friendly and was a prove it deal. Hardly anything that should make you pause when it comes to ANY free agents.

2. His injury here in GB wasn’t something he had a history of - It was just an unfortunate occurrence that could literally happen at any time to anyone. 
 

Does JJ Watt have a concerning injury history? Absolutely, but the Packers aren’t going to sign him to some crazy contract that we wouldn’t be able to work around. That’s just not how they do business nor is it something they can even afford right now. IF the Packers get JJ, the contract is likely team friendly and one they can easily get out of in year 3. 
 

Now, if you were a Redskins fan and said idk maybe I’m getting nightmares about Albert Haynesworth signing, I’d get it. Wilkerson and THAT contract though? Not exactly anything to give you pause for

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, VicPez said:

If you sign J.J. Watt, who has played three seasons' worth of games in the last five years and whose play is on the decline, and then he ends up getting hurt, that's a situation where you're making a decision to take on a heightened injury risk for a lower reward.  The difference is that Green Bay had no way of anticipating the Bakhtiari injury, outside of a general awareness that any player can get hurt at any time.  With Watt, you have reason to believe that the chances of him getting hurt are higher.

He's also played in 40 of the last 48 games or roughly 83% of all possible games the last 3 years.  That's a stark difference then the 60% you're posing.  The question is does the last two years pose more relevant data for his chances of staying healthy?

[HighCalebR]

The ol wisconsin sell. Hopefully this lowers the contract demands.

[Brit Pack]

A little bit of a dumb question, but excuse me I am English after all. I just wanted to get an understanding of why the Cap is going down this year and as result we are in the position that we are in.

From my limited knowledge I always thought the revenue sharing model split between the 32 teams is comprised from TV revenue and merchandise sales only, and it is this figure that determines the cap in a split with the players via the CBA, is that correct? 

I can understand local revenues e.g. gate receipts and concessions taking massive hits because of no fans but this revenue doesn't go into calculating the Cap, so then why is the Cap going down. Income from TV rights shouldn't have changed because games all got played. Did merch sales get hit that hard that the cap has to go down by almost 20%?

Could any enlightened American souls explain further please?

[squire12]

8 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

A little bit of a dumb question, but excuse me I am English after all. I just wanted to get an understanding of why the Cap is going down this year and as result we are in the position that we are in.

From my limited knowledge I always thought the revenue sharing model split between the 32 teams is comprised from TV revenue and merchandise sales only, and it is this figure that determines the cap in a split with the players via the CBA, is that correct? 

I can understand local revenues e.g. gate receipts and concessions taking massive hits because of no fans but this revenue doesn't go into calculating the Cap, so then why is the Cap going down. Income from TV rights shouldn't have changed because games all got played. Did merch sales get hit that hard that the cap has to go down by almost 20%?

Could any enlightened American souls explain further please?

The salary cap is the pooled money from

TV, Ticket sales. Merchandise

 

Ticket sales is the biggest difference and somewhere around 30-40% of the total

[DWhitehurst]

Unless Watt is so enamored by the opportunity of playing for the Packers, his favorite team of his childhood, and so is willing to play for alot less than he could get from another team (say 8mil/year instead of 15mil/year), then even if we could clear the cap space, I don't think it is worth the risk, given his age, injury history. 

[squire12]

28 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

A little bit of a dumb question, but excuse me I am English after all. I just wanted to get an understanding of why the Cap is going down this year and as result we are in the position that we are in.

From my limited knowledge I always thought the revenue sharing model split between the 32 teams is comprised from TV revenue and merchandise sales only, and it is this figure that determines the cap in a split with the players via the CBA, is that correct? 

I can understand local revenues e.g. gate receipts and concessions taking massive hits because of no fans but this revenue doesn't go into calculating the Cap, so then why is the Cap going down. Income from TV rights shouldn't have changed because games all got played. Did merch sales get hit that hard that the cap has to go down by almost 20%?

Could any enlightened American souls explain further please?

@Brit Pack

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2020/05/18/the-stadium-revenue-each-nfl-team-will-lose-if-games-are-played-without-fans/amp/

[Brat&Beer]

I think Charlie Berens should dedicate the next episode of Manitowoc Minute to getting JJ Watt to sign with Green Bay. 

[Brit Pack]

36 minutes ago, squire12 said:

@Brit Pack

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2020/05/18/the-stadium-revenue-each-nfl-team-will-lose-if-games-are-played-without-fans/amp/

Thanks the article I read previously didn't mention ticket sales as a pooled component. Now it makes sense. Cheers

[mikemike778]

5 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Isn't the counter point to that David Bakhtiari who was home grown with a fairly clean bill of health who blew his knee up before the playoffs? Injuries can hit anybody.

All big guys on 3rd contracts are vulnerable to injury. That's just the way life goes in the NFL.  Going for Watt would be an interesting move but its obviously very very high risk. Very similar to Bulaga last year. 

Personally, I'm a bit risk averse. I wouldn't sign any Lineman (on either side of the ball) on a big 3rd (or later) contract barring exceptional circumstances like Bakhtiari (and was wary of that). I wouldn't consider re-signing Linsley and wouldn't go near Watt unless its a hometown giveaway.

The window is pretty narrow so  no violent objections to them taking the gamble but can't be complaining about your luck with injuries if you sign him and he spends most of the season on the injury list. 

 

[AlexGreen#20]

26 minutes ago, mikemike778 said:

All big guys on 3rd contracts are vulnerable to injury. That's just the way life goes in the NFL.  Going for Watt would be an interesting move but its obviously very very high risk. Very similar to Bulaga last year. 

Personally, I'm a bit risk averse. I wouldn't sign any Lineman (on either side of the ball) on a big 3rd (or later) contract barring exceptional circumstances like Bakhtiari (and was wary of that). I wouldn't consider re-signing Linsley and wouldn't go near Watt unless its a hometown giveaway.

The window is pretty narrow so  no violent objections to them taking the gamble but can't be complaining about your luck with injuries if you sign him and he spends most of the season on the injury list. 

 

Linemen hold up better than speed guys on 3rd contracts

[CWood21]

53 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Linemen hold up better than speed guys on 3rd contracts

Agreed.  Unless you've got concerns about the structural integrity of their bodies, I'm giving an OL a 3rd contract over a skill position player every day of the week and twice on Sunday.