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2021 NFL Draft


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29 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

What teams with franchise QBs who have been paid struggle to consistently compete?

The Lions (Stafford), Raiders (Carr), Ravens (Flacco), Rams (Goff), Seahawks (Wilson), Eagles (Wentz), ...

The list goes on and on. If we're talking about winning Super Bowls, then maximizing the rookie deal is critical. If we're talking about making the playoffs, then the Bears are already doing that.

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1 hour ago, abstract_thought said:

It's not this simple because of the CBA. Plenty of teams find their franchise QB and it never amounts to anything. Look at the Lions.

If you can't capitalize on the QB's rookie contract years, your window for a Super Bowl closes. Trading multiple future picks for a QB will mean the Bears are locked into the current roster. It means they'll have fewer resources to rebuild the aging defense. It means they'll have fewer resources to actually fix the OL and WR positions.

I didn't want to retain Pace/Nagy for this exact reason. The short-term interest is to make a splash move. The best thing this franchise can do for the long-term is to let that regime play itself out and start over with a full set of picks.

Windy isnt wrong on his take here.  The Lions had a top 10 qb and the best WR in the game but no run game or d, and they made the playoffs.  If they had a decent coach and GM, they would have won the division and been competing for Superbowls.  

Yes it's harder after paying your QB, you need to manage your cap and draft well, but it absolutely can be done.  The Rams just made a gigantic trade, took the largest dead cap hit in history and still continued to add pieces this offseason.  The Saints kept the window open for 3 years paying Brees nearly $100M in that time frame.  The Packers have paid Rodgers twice.  The Seahawks dismantled their team and still made the playoffs in what everyone thought would be a down year.  The 49ers made the SB after signing Jimmy G to a $127M contract and only getting 11 passes from him in the NFCCG.  Tom Brady finally signs a market value deal and immediately wins another SuperBowl.  Having the right QB changes your future.  Josh Allen and the Bills will be competing for SBs for the next 10 years, the Chiefs are everyone's pick for the next dynasty and made a big trade for a LT to add to arguably the NFLs best roster.  

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9 hours ago, WindyCity said:

What is the point of being respectable and trying to compete? I get that winning 8-9 games is better than 4-5 on actual Sundays.

But the NFL is that QB centric. We are not actually able to “compete” without a top 10 QB. 
 

I get building and being responsible, but I truly believe that it doesn’t matter. You have to have the QB. Once a decade a great team with a mediocre QB makes a run, but that requires every planet and star to align at the right moment.
 

The Packers are consistently competing. They may only have 1 Super Bowl win, but since the Packers Super Bowl win they have played 15 playoff games and been to 3 NFC Championship games.

The Packers have built a good team around Rodgers, winning the Super Bowl is hard and takes some luck. But since their Super Bowl win they have missed the playoff twice and made 3 NFC Title games.

 

GB wins as often as it does mostly because other than a few years under Lovie we haven't really challenged then since the '80s.  The three other NFNC teams have practically made a gift of the NFCN title and a road to a record good enough to often get a bye and nearly always host playoff games at home in the Tundra in January.

We are not consistently competing for the NFCN title and until we do even a Super Bowl appearance is a dream.  So in my "reality" we begin by at least assembling teams that can compete with GB and the other NFCN teams.  That's were any road to a championship has to begin.  The rest as you say is partly luck and getting the breaks.

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5 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Windy isnt wrong on his take here.  The Lions had a top 10 qb and the best WR in the game but no run game or d, and they made the playoffs.  If they had a decent coach and GM, they would have won the division and been competing for Superbowls.  

Yes it's harder after paying your QB, you need to manage your cap and draft well, but it absolutely can be done.  The Rams just made a gigantic trade, took the largest dead cap hit in history and still continued to add pieces this offseason.  The Saints kept the window open for 3 years paying Brees nearly $100M in that time frame.  The Packers have paid Rodgers twice.  The Seahawks dismantled their team and still made the playoffs in what everyone thought would be a down year.  The 49ers made the SB after signing Jimmy G to a $127M contract and only getting 11 passes from him in the NFCCG.  Tom Brady finally signs a market value deal and immediately wins another SuperBowl.  Having the right QB changes your future.  Josh Allen and the Bills will be competing for SBs for the next 10 years, the Chiefs are everyone's pick for the next dynasty and made a big trade for a LT to add to arguably the NFLs best roster.  

If we're talking about making the playoffs, the Bears are already doing that now. If we're talking about winning Super Bowls, then winning while your QB is on a low salary is critical. 

Everyone sees Mahomes and thinks trading up for a QB will end like that. He is a generational player. If you draft Mahomes then the trade will absolutely be worth it, but very few QBs are Mahomes. Most are guys like Jared Goff or Matthew Stafford or Derek Carr - good enough to win with, but not good enough to elevate your entire team.

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21 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

If we're talking about making the playoffs, the Bears are already doing that now. If we're talking about winning Super Bowls, then winning while your QB is on a low salary is critical. 

Everyone sees Mahomes and thinks trading up for a QB will end like that. He is a generational player. If you draft Mahomes then the trade will absolutely be worth it, but very few QBs are Mahomes. Most are guys like Jared Goff or Matthew Stafford or Derek Carr - good enough to win with, but not good enough to elevate your entire team.

And that's why you continually invest in the position.  My hope when Nagy came here was that the Bears would get the QB incubator going.  Every year you are drafting QBs and starting the development process.  You homegrow your starter, backup, and potentially start having trade bait at the position.  That may in fact be the biggest failure of this regime.  They were content to pay the backup premium backup money for league average backup results.  What if they had that $11M back from Daniel's deal, or the $18M from Glennon, or the $21M from Nick Foles?  You dont pay backups premium money.  That is not a recipe for success.  If you had that money, Kyle Fuller's still here, ARob is probably already extended and the franchise is probably in much better position, meanwhile you drafted a QB who could have saved you $10M on Dalton this year.

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8 minutes ago, G08 said:

 

 

Huh. I wonder what that scenario is? 'Cause you'd think that Denver would be all over a QB, if one of the top five fell to them. Right? Maybe he's envisioning a Denver-Atlanta swap, with the Falcons trading down yet again? 

Weird. 

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2 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

The Lions (Stafford), Raiders (Carr), Ravens (Flacco), Rams (Goff), Seahawks (Wilson), Eagles (Wentz), ...

The list goes on and on. If we're talking about winning Super Bowls, then maximizing the rookie deal is critical. If we're talking about making the playoffs, then the Bears are already doing that.

The Rams and Seahawks consistently are in the playoffs. Both have played in Super Bowls, and Goff isn’t even that good.

Carr isn’t a franchise guy. Neither was Flacco.

The truth is that teams with elite QBs are always in the playoffs, even after they pay them. The few exceptions are the truly inept franchises like the Lions and Texans.

I agree maximizing the rookie deal is critical. Once the rookie deal ends the bad front offices get exposed. But paying a QB is not a death sentence.

 

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11 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Huh. I wonder what that scenario is? 'Cause you'd think that Denver would be all over a QB, if one of the top five fell to them. Right? Maybe he's envisioning a Denver-Atlanta swap, with the Falcons trading down yet again? 

Weird. 

I think Denver has the QB they like and if he is gone they would trade down. I think they will be more picky than the Bears

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Just now, WindyCity said:

I think Denver has the QB they like and if he is gone they would trade down. I think they will be more picky than the Bears

That's possible. They also could like Lock more than the football media assumes they do. 

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2 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

And that's why you continually invest in the position.  My hope when Nagy came here was that the Bears would get the QB incubator going.  Every year you are drafting QBs and starting the development process.  You homegrow your starter, backup, and potentially start having trade bait at the position.  That may in fact be the biggest failure of this regime.  They were content to pay the backup premium backup money for league average backup results.  What if they had that $11M back from Daniel's deal, or the $18M from Glennon, or the $21M from Nick Foles?  You dont pay backups premium money.  That is not a recipe for success.  If you had that money, Kyle Fuller's still here, ARob is probably already extended and the franchise is probably in much better position, meanwhile you drafted a QB who could have saved you $10M on Dalton this year.

They should have drafted someone 2 years ago when the first doubts about MItch started to creep in.

At least that way they wouldn’t be over a barrel right now.

Probably should have passed on Kmet and takes Hurts last year and had something to work with this season. Now they are desperate for a QB instead of taking a TE in round 2.

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Just now, Heinz D. said:

That's possible. They also could like Lock more than the football media assumes they do. 

Allbright has made that point before. That Lock played well the last 6 games of the season and they wont just make a move to make a move.

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