Round 3: Pick 85; Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson

[{Family Ghost}]

RAS is just one tool .. doesn't account at all for brains and instincts.  A RAS warrior that can't play the game ain't worth a hill of beans. 

[vegas492]

23 minutes ago, Norm said:

There's always this idea that "oh man we really like the analytics" from fans and reporters. Maybe teams just draft guys who are good football players that are good athletes out there on the field so then they test well, because that's why they're good at football... It's not hard to spot the 4.7 WR out there. If you could never see them play at all then sure gimme all the numbers but we have that advantage and sometimes I think we lean on numbers too much. Reading a bunch of numbers is a lot easier and faster. It just feels like a shortcut that I'm sure really works that well over time if it was really looked at that closely. But it's easy to pick and choose and then explain away why like a low RAS guy succeeded.

 

So, Davante Adams has a 3-cone time of 6.82.  That's a good to very good time for a WR.  39.5 vertical leap.  Shows explosion.  Think of rookie 'Vante.  Did he showcase that kind of 6.82 3-cone (quickness)?  How about that explosion from the vertical?  My take?  He flashed it.  But none of it was consistent, except maybe for his jumping ability.

We have another WR on the roster who is about the same height and weight.  Same 3-cone.  3 inches less on the vertical.  One tenth of a second faster on the 40 yard dash.  That is Malik Taylor.  

Davante's RAS is 6.53.  Taylor's is 8.32.  No wonder we like Taylor.

And...Taylor doesn't run routes well and the game seems too fast for him to tap into those athletic traits.  

My point?  And sorry for it taking so long, my point is that it takes time to see the true athlete on the football field.  Experience helps a lot.  Coaching.....etc.  But just because you don't see it right away, doesn't mean it isn't there.

[vegas492]

3 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

RAS is just one tool .. doesn't account at all for brains and instincts.  A RAS warrior that can't play the game ain't worth a hill of beans. 

Kevin White, WR.  9.72.

Cody Latimer, WR.  9.93.  (Same as Julio Jones)

Breshod Perriman, WR.  9.95.

ESB, WR.  9.84.

List goes on and on concerning WR.  Being an athlete is only part of being a good WR.  As you said, brains and instincts need to be there too.

Jake Kumerow, 5.58.  Guessing that walking on water didn't help his score much.  Maybe if he ran on it....

[ThatJerkDave]

I think some people are conflating "better RAS" to mean "better player" and it doesn't try to do that at all.  It shows that a 5'11 WR is in the 48th percentile of height, whereas the 7'1 WR is in the 99th percentile.  

[R T]

26 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I think some people are conflating "better RAS" to mean "better player" and it doesn't try to do that at all.  It shows that a 5'11 WR is in the 48th percentile of height, whereas the 7'1 WR is in the 99th percentile.  

So 7'1" is much better, right?

[HighCalebR]

12 minutes ago, R T said:

So 7'1" is much better, right?

Only if its in green. I dont read so good so the colors really help.

[ThatJerkDave]

1 hour ago, R T said:

So 7'1" is much better, right?

Caleb's got it, only if it is green.  

[Norm]

2 hours ago, vegas492 said:

Smaller hurts?  I think so, but just the size grade.

I think it is a pretty cool thing, RAS scores.

They look at all the guys, I think all the way back to 1987, and simply chart their combine scores.  

It is a test to see how athletic a person is, for their listed position.  Basically it benchmarks one player against all tested guys back to 1987.  

I mean, we drooled over the 9.95 Rashan Gary RAS score.  All that means is how well he tested against others at the DE position.

Here is a link to GB and their RAS scores for players, including history.  Mandarich and Javon Walker were 10.0.

https://ras.football/2020/12/31/green-bay-packers-ras-history/

 

You will see a lot of high scores for guys who simply did not play well.  Donnerson, Ferguson, Michels, Spriggs, Amichia, Hundley, Edwards, Thomas....etc.

It doesn't tell yah how good of a football player someone will be, but it sure does show just what type of athlete you are getting to work with.

We see it all the time with Burks at ILB.  Crazy athletic skills.  Slow to diagnose and therefore, not much of a football player (yet).

I mean I understand the basic concepts and how it ranks and everything. It just seems like it's constantly being brought up. Okay, like it seems like you need to have this certain RAS score first, before anything else, and if you do, then we start deciding if we like the dude. If he doesn't, it's like yeah never mind, don't want him. Like before we draft guys. I know this is obvious but it's clearly not that simple.

I am not that stupid, I know you want high end athletes. But I don't know if this one big combined thing is the one thing we should use as the absolute primary indicator across all positions. 

[Norm]

2 hours ago, vegas492 said:

So, Davante Adams has a 3-cone time of 6.82.  That's a good to very good time for a WR.  39.5 vertical leap.  Shows explosion.  Think of rookie 'Vante.  Did he showcase that kind of 6.82 3-cone (quickness)?  How about that explosion from the vertical?  My take?  He flashed it.  But none of it was consistent, except maybe for his jumping ability.

We have another WR on the roster who is about the same height and weight.  Same 3-cone.  3 inches less on the vertical.  One tenth of a second faster on the 40 yard dash.  That is Malik Taylor.  

Davante's RAS is 6.53.  Taylor's is 8.32.  No wonder we like Taylor.

And...Taylor doesn't run routes well and the game seems too fast for him to tap into those athletic traits.  

My point?  And sorry for it taking so long, my point is that it takes time to see the true athlete on the football field.  Experience helps a lot.  Coaching.....etc.  But just because you don't see it right away, doesn't mean it isn't there.

I agree with what you're saying. But Adams is maybe the best WR in the NFL, or up there and Taylor is nearly a practice squad player. But again if you just looked at RAS....

[cannondale]

No one is saying that RAS or any other cumulative score is the be all end all. ZaDarius Smith had an RAS of 3.75.  But until he proves one way or another, speculation is all we have with regard to Rodgers. And when you think of a gadget guy, there are certain qualities that come to mind, and his times and scores in those areas are very low. 

[NFLGURU]

If a guy can play, he can play.  Can he produce in your system?   If he can, RAS is irrelevant.

[incognito_man]

40 minutes ago, NFLGURU said:

If a guy can play, he can play.  Can he produce in your system?   If he can, RAS is irrelevant.

This is what I alluded to earlier. Finding guys like an Amari who don't blow up the measurables and that makes him undervalued overall and thus a good value pick for us because he is built for this scheme IMO.

[vegas492]

On 8/27/2021 at 3:21 PM, Norm said:

I agree with what you're saying. But Adams is maybe the best WR in the NFL, or up there and Taylor is nearly a practice squad player. But again if you just looked at RAS....

RAS is not the end all, be all.  But if you are drafting athletes to be developed, it is a handy thing to know.

And likely why we liked Taylor over Kumerow last year.  There's just more of an athlete to work with.  

[Norm]

5 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

RAS is not the end all, be all.  But if you are drafting athletes to be developed, it is a handy thing to know.

And likely why we liked Taylor over Kumerow last year.  There's just more of an athlete to work with.  

Yeah and like I said earlier, I like it a LOT more when it comes to late picks and UDFAs

[Leader]

A few years back there was an opinion (general consensus?) that the Packers weren't a top team athletically. Overall they were slow.

Now, I cant say how much RAS data was used to build those rosters but I can say we've heard far more RAS data in recent years. Whether Gute is relying on it more than Ted in his actual selections.....dont know.....but it's certainly being reported more widely.