What team that is expected to be great will be terrible this year?

[CP3MVP]

Every year there is at least one team that people think will be really good to great that flops and doesn’t meet expectations. The 2011 Eagles and 2019 Browns were all time examples 

 

Who will that be in 2021. 

Edited June 4, 2021 by CP3MVP

[DoleINGout]

Bills won't live up to expectations, could miss playoffs.

[minutemancl]

Based on very small, subjective measures, I feel like one of the Bills or Browns will be much worse than expected this year. Both are looked at as young upstarts that could upset the Chiefs in an AFCCG matchup. However, maybe the Browns OL regresses back towards the mean, defenses get a better handle on Stefanski's PA oriented offense, and Baker looks more like 2019 Baker than 2020 Baker. For the Bills, maybe Josh Allen gets away with less poor throws and should-be interceptions. Maybe Poyer and Hyde, the two parts of that dynamic safety duo for so many years, both hit the wall hard at 30 and their pass defense becomes suspect.

EDIT: To add to both of these, there always needs to be a level of caution in predicting success for young teams who don't have a history of success. Andy Reid and Bill Belichick have been great for a long time, and their teams are regularly very good. We still see teams like the 2017 Jaguars all the time, every year. A young, talented team looking to be knocking on the door of being a perennial playoff contender, only for them to fall flat. Bills and Browns both fit that criteria- young teams with no history of success that looked great for one year. Again, it is a super loose prediction not based on any hardcore facts spelling out their doom, but I could see it happening to either, or both.

Edited June 4, 2021 by minutemancl

[Apparition]

I'm expecting the Seahawks to regress big-time. 

[ET80]

Green Bay? Or nah?

[Mr Raider]

24 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Green Bay? Or nah?

Green Bay would be my choice if Rodgers is traded, but if he is actually traded I feel like they would no longer qualify as a team expected to be great at that point. 

[Mr Raider]

I see the logic behind the Bills being mentioned just because they don't have a long history like some other playoff teams of being consistent, and I agree with that logic. But I just can't see it with Buffalo. That front office, and that coaching staff has totally earned my trust for the next couple years at least. Not trust in the sense that I am super confident they will win a super bowl or anything. But enough trust to believe that they will be a consistent 10+ win, playoff team, at least until after Allen gets his big payday. I mean sure, an Allen regression is not out of the realm of possibility, but I personally just don't see it. He has improved every year, he has so many ridiculous tools, Diggs showed last year just how great he is, and Allen also has the ability to extend plays and big up yards with his feet that can help the Bills continue to win games even if he isn't as great with his arm this season. 

The Browns I can see a little bit. In my predictions for the season I have them going 10-7 but being the first team left out of the playoffs. I suppose after last season that may be considered a let down. Though I wouldn't qualify it as being awful. They have a higher chance of regression IMO just because Baker has shown some lows that make it hard to make a deep playoff run, and he's shown some really good things as well, but his highs have never been as high as Allen last season. I expect the Browns to be good, but they along with one other team would be my choice for teams with the most hype that fail to live up to expectations. 

The other team is the Dolphins. And I say that as someone that has gushed about how much I love their vision and what they are building there. I think they have one of the brightest futures in all the AFC. I absolutely love what Flores has shown in his time there. Doing what he has in the past couple seasons is way more impressive than some coaches taking over competitive teams and winning a lot of games (like Leflore in GB). I also had them winning 11 games and making the playoffs in my prediction. BUT, I can see a scenario where they fail to become the playoff team a lot expect them to be this year and instead are more of an 8 or 9 win team. The defense was terrific last year, but some will argue the areas they were most effective in aren't as sustainable (I don't subscribe but I can see it). If Howard plays at a non lock down level, and some guys on the DL and LB core don't step up, scheme can only take you so far. But even if the defense regresses some, they could still be a very good team IF, and here is where the real area of concern will be in terms of not reaching expectations, Tua and the offense can play at least good football. As much as I personally like Tua, and am not going to write him off, he didn't show so much as a rookie that you can pencil him in for greatness. If Tua doesn't progress much, and Waddle struggles with the transition to being a top flight NFL WR, Parker and Fuller continue to struggle with inconsistency and injuries, it could leave the passing game as one of the bottom tier ones in all the NFL. And then a running game that can be good enough but has questions itself will see even more attention. So I can see a scenario where the defense takes a small step backwards, but the offense is incredibly inconsistent with QB play that can't take over games, a bunch of boom or bust pass catchers, and a run game that can't get any holes opened up because the lack of respect for the passing game. And regardless of how good the defense is, bad QB play, a bad passing offense and a rushing offense that doesn't look like an elite one can make reaching expectations of playoffs an uphill battle. 

[BayRaider]

I don’t think any of them will be terrible. I do think the Bills won’t quite live up to expectations but will still be good. 

[Johnny Nix]

Saints easily

[BayRaider]

2 minutes ago, Johnny Nix said:

Saints easily

Does anyone have high expectations for them though….? I see majority of people predicting 8-9/9-8 with no playoffs. 

[Tk3]

I'll use Draftkings over/under win total as my guide. This is the list of teams with a win total of 10 or higher (top 8 teams.. what I would feel qualifies as "great")

1. Chiefs 12
2. Bucs 11.5
3. Ravens 11
4. 49ers 10.5
5. Bills 10.5
6. Packers 10.5
7. Rams 10.5
8. Colts 10

 

I'll say that among this group. 49ers if they choose to play Trey Lance, and the Colts jump out as the most likely to miss the playoffs or be under .500

I think teams like the Chargers, Dolphins, Cowboys, Patriots, Saints, who all fall in the 9-9.5 win total group, have a chance to disappoint as well, but by definition I'm not including them as highly regarded enough

[Soko]

Browns have to be a candidate, much as I like their roster. Only playoff team with a negative point differential (including the 7-9 WFT), 8-1 in one score games, new team on the block, etc. That’s just looking at what history tells us in the NFL, not them contextually as a team. The W/L record in close games is a big one. 

 Stats and all that aside, have to think Green Bay - even if Rodgers plays. Seattle too, IMO. 

[DontTazeMeBro]

I do kinda wonder if the Packers will ever get tired of Aaron Rodgers saying they’re not good enough.

Carson Wentz is awful so Indy feels like the natural choice here. 
 

I actually think New Orleans is going to be better without Brees.

[HolmesPriest]

Bucaneers 

[RTTRUTH]

Bit surprised Pittsburgh wasn’t on that 10 win list.

If they qualify that’s my pick.

Colts are too obvious. A lot depends how well our scheme protects Wentz. 
 

Rams might be my next choice. Their roster is just paper thin. One injury could make winning tough for them. Had a strange draft.