Will Baker Mayfield cement himself as a top-10 QB this year?

[MWil23]

Week 1 as a means to justify anything for or against always amuses me 

[AkronsWitness]

5 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Should we revisit this? Or nah

Did you see how bad he was in the first half? He was atrocious and even before the last play of the game--his accuracy past 10 yards downfield, in general, is deplorable. My point still stands.

[MrOaktown_56]

1 hour ago, AkronsWitness said:

Did you see how bad he was in the first half? He was atrocious and even before the last play of the game--his accuracy past 10 yards downfield, in general, is deplorable. My point still stands.

Most air yards in the nfl and most completions over 10 yards in week 1, but yeah keep digging your home deeper.

[Tk3]

17 hours ago, MWil23 said:

Week 1 as a means to justify anything for or against always amuses me 

I agree

But - if anything - I feel like week 1 should be a point in support of Baker, despite zero TD and that late Int

Overall he played very well, and Schwartz cost him a fantastic TD with that bobble that he still caught

 

That said - a lot of his peers in a similar ranking band played even better. We need more 2021 data before we start trying to move the needles, otherwise Stafford, Jameis, and Hurts are somewhere in the top 5 and Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, and Ryan Tannehill are not even in our top 25 anymore

[MWil23]

1 minute ago, Tk3 said:

I agree

But - if anything - I feel like week 1 should be a point in support of Baker, despite zero TD and that late Int

Overall he played very well, and Schwartz cost him a fantastic TD with that bobble that he still caught

Schwartz also dropped a contested ball in what would have been a long first down completion on 3rd down that put them in FG range the play before Gillian dropped the punt. Not an easy catch, but he needs to come down with it.

1 minute ago, Tk3 said:

That said - a lot of his peers in a similar ranking band played even better. We need more 2021 data before we start trying to move the needles, otherwise Stafford, Jameis, and Hurts are somewhere in the top 5 and Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, and Ryan Tannehill are not even in our top 25 anymore

No doubt. Kyler had a big boy game too (as big of a hater of his as I am).

There are clearly people who were sitting at their keyboard or with their phone or in their next morning's talk radio show waiting to solely place all of the blame on Baker with a "I TOLD YOU SO!" narrative and cherry picked stats about 4th Quarter INT since his rookie year (disregarding the 3 INT in the 4th quarter he's thrown since a historically bad 2nd season, in which he threw 9 of his career 16 INT, 13 in his first two seasons).

It's like blaming Josh Allen for putting up 0 points Sunday in the second half, despite Buffalo's special teams and running game woes, or absolutely horrific calls on 3rd/4th down (that 4th and 1 was brutal). But, that story doesn't get clicks or sell, so let's all pile on Baker and the Browns.

[Nightmare]

13 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

Did you see how bad he was in the first half? He was atrocious and even before the last play of the game--his accuracy past 10 yards downfield, in general, is deplorable. My point still stands.

Except it doesn’t. You’re literally still using the same arguments against Carr which were used in 2017/8. And don’t get me wrong, they were accurate then; he loved to check down and looked terrified in the pocket. That’s not who he is any more.

No arguments that he had a bad first half on Monday night. But by the same virtue, did you see how good he was after that?

[Tk3]

Carr was pretty okay on Monday

That's about all I have to say about that

[ET80]

Why didn't I kick this over to Comparisons back on page 2...

[MWil23]

Let's look at Baker's Red Zone stats:

Just now, MWil23 said:

 

2021: 1 Game, 2-2, 8 yards

Since you guys love 1 game sample sizes

Just now, MWil23 said:

2020: 45-71, 21 TD and 0 INT

Also proof that Russell Wilson sucks since he threw 3 Red Zone INT, and Mahomes sucks because he threw 2 INT

#bums

This is me clearly trolling

Just now, MWil23 said:

2019: 30-74, 15 TD, 3 INT

This is his awful 2nd season

Just now, MWil23 said:

2018: 35-54, 20 TD, 0 INT

As a rookie

Just now, MWil23 said:

Career in the Red Zone:

112-201, 56 TD, 3 INT

That's pretty solid, especially given how bad that completion % was Year 2

[Soggust]

21 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Let's look at Baker's Red Zone stats:

Just for other folks reference because even the bad numbers here look good on the surface, but all QBs have surprisingly good numbers in the Red Zone -

2020 - Top 7 
2019 - Bottom 5
2018 - Top 7

Which makes sense. He had a good rookie year, a terrible sophomore campaign and a great year last year. 

I think there is plenty of reason to be optimistic if you are a Browns fan, but it's obviously fair to be skeptical and see what happens in 2021. 

[MWil23]

1 minute ago, Soggust said:

Just for other folks reference because even the bad numbers here look good on the surface, but all QBs have surprisingly good numbers in the Red Zone -

2020 - Top 7 
2019 - Bottom 5
2018 - Top 7

Which makes sense. He had a good rookie year, a terrible sophomore campaign and a great year last year. 

I think there is plenty of reason to be optimistic if you are a Browns fan, but it's obviously fair to be skeptical and see what happens in 2021. 

Absolutely, and very fair. It's also why the "4th Quarter interception leader" stat is garbage. I mean, he'd be towards the top over that time span just with 2019, where he was bottom 5 in almost every metric.

It's very fair to be skeptical, but at the same point, coaching matters, and it's hard to argue with Freddie Kitchens vs. Kevin Stefanski as well.

[NYRaider]

9 hours ago, Tk3 said:

Carr was pretty okay on Monday

That's about all I have to say about that

Struggled in the first half but was great in the second half/overtime. 

First half: 12/25, 127 yards

Second half/OT: 22/31, 308 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

[NYRaider]

23 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

Did you see how bad he was in the first half? He was atrocious and even before the last play of the game--his accuracy past 10 yards downfield, in general, is deplorable. My point still stands.

Did you see Baker in the second half with his 90 yards and 58.9 QBR?

[NYRaider]

On 9/11/2021 at 3:43 PM, AkronsWitness said:

Nobody wants Derek Carr. The raiders don't even want Derek Carr. He is captain checkdown, takes way too many sacks and is afraid to throw the ball further than 10 yards down the field..

He plays QB scared, which is the exact opposite of Mayfield. 

Last season...

Carr: 4,103 yards (67% comp), 27 TD, 9 INT, 7.9 YPA, 8.1 average depth of target, 101.4 QBR

Baker: 3,563 yards (62% comp), 26 TD, 8 INT, 7.7 YPA, 8.5 average depth of target, 95.9 QBR

And 20% of Baker's passing production/33% of his TD production came in 2 games, lol. 

Baker is 23-23 as a starter but has one winning season in 3 full years. And in that winning season the Browns only beat 3 teams with winning records.  

[FrantikRam]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

Last season...

Carr: 4,103 yards (67% comp), 27 TD, 9 INT, 7.9 YPA, 8.1 average depth of target, 101.4 QBR

Baker: 3,563 yards (62% comp), 26 TD, 8 INT, 7.7 YPA, 8.5 average depth of target, 95.9 QBR

And 20% of Baker's passing production/33% of his TD production came in 2 games, lol. 

Baker is 23-23 as a starter but has one winning season in 3 full years. And in that winning season the Browns only beat 3 teams with winning records.  

 

OOF