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Will Baker Mayfield cement himself as a top-10 QB this year?

WizeGuy

By WizeGuy
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Will Baker cement himself as a top-10 QB this year?  

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  1. 1. What say you?


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showtime

showtime

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Yeah, I like Mayfield. I think he's already a borderline top 10 QB.

Biggest question for me is Odell Beckham Jr. He seems to play better in general when Beckham Jr. is not there, which doesn't make sense. Maybe he feels he has to force feed the ball to Beckham Jr., and that negatively impacts his game. Hopefully Beckham Jr. can stay healthy this season and those two play great together.

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AlexGreen#20

AlexGreen#20

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The problem with being cemented in the top 10 is that basically involves breaking into the top 4. That 5-15 group is deep and messy, and #6 on someone's list, might be #12 on someone else's list just due to how tight the conversation is. 

Rodgers/Mahomes/Wilson/Brady (are your top dogs, though Wilson obviously is missing the MVP accolades)

Prescott/Jackson/Allen/Watson*/Cousins/Stafford/Mayfield/Tannehill/Ryan (I feel pretty comfortable saying everyone on this list has had at least one season better than Mayfield's best year)

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Tk3

Tk3

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1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

The problem with being cemented in the top 10 is that basically involves breaking into the top 4. That 5-15 group is deep and messy, and #6 on someone's list, might be #12 on someone else's list just due to how tight the conversation is. 

Rodgers/Mahomes/Wilson/Brady (are your top dogs, though Wilson obviously is missing the MVP accolades)

Prescott/Jackson/Allen/Watson*/Cousins/Stafford/Mayfield/Tannehill/Ryan (I feel pretty comfortable saying everyone on this list has had at least one season better than Mayfield's best year)

I agree with this sentiment conceptually - but I think the group that is "cemented in the top 10" is larger than just the top 4

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SBLIII

SBLIII

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Posted
3 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

The problem with being cemented in the top 10 is that basically involves breaking into the top 4. That 5-15 group is deep and messy, and #6 on someone's list, might be #12 on someone else's list just due to how tight the conversation is. 

Rodgers/Mahomes/Wilson/Brady (are your top dogs, though Wilson obviously is missing the MVP accolades)

Prescott/Jackson/Allen/Watson*/Cousins/Stafford/Mayfield/Tannehill/Ryan (I feel pretty comfortable saying everyone on this list has had at least one season better than Mayfield's best year)

Prescott, Lamar and Allen to me are clearly better than Baker. Watson, too if he ever plays again. That's 7-8. Tannehill has played better as well. One might argue supporting cast but Baker has that as well. So he might sneak into the last 1-2 spots in the top 10.

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FGK

FGK

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12 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

They had me until the whole 'pull everyone out of their offense' and then listed Lamar Jackson at #6

He adds so much value in the running game. Not only in what he does, but in the respect he commands that allows the other guys to do what they do. Does anyone think Dobbins is a 6 YPA back in an offense without a Lamar type QB? Gus Edwards a 5+ YPA guy? So I get where you're coming from, but I see how he'd be up there for sure.

50 minutes ago, SBLIII said:

Prescott, Lamar and Allen to me are clearly better than Baker. Watson, too if he ever plays again. That's 7-8. Tannehill has played better as well. One might argue supporting cast but Baker has that as well. So he might sneak into the last 1-2 spots in the top 10.

I get the skepticism. But I'm still gonna laugh when the conversation next offseason is between a group saying he's clearly top 5-7 now, and a group saying he needs to show it for longer. And it will probably be the same people saying he's top 8-10 right now with room for more and the people wanting to see more. Might just be baked into who has time to watch him a bunch, who leans more optimistic/pessimistic naturally, etc.

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AkronsWitness

AkronsWitness

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2 minutes ago, FGK said:

He adds so much value in the running game. Not only in what he does, but in the respect he commands that allows the other guys to do what they do. Does anyone think Dobbins is a 6 YPA back in an offense without a Lamar type QB? Gus Edwards a 5+ YPA guy? So I get where you're coming from, but I see how he'd be up there for sure.

I get the skepticism. But I'm still gonna laugh when the conversation next offseason is between a group saying he's clearly top 5-7 now, and a group saying he needs to show it for longer. And it will probably be the same people saying he's top 8-10 right now with room for more and the people wanting to see more. Might just be baked into who has time to watch him a bunch, who leans more optimistic/pessimistic naturally, etc.

I get it, but I think if you take Jackson out of that system that is built around him in BAL, that he would be the same QB if he was asked to be plugged into any other system.

I still think he is sort of like Tebow in that respect that in order to maximize him--he needs a offense completely overhauled for him. If you take him and drop him in the Miami Dolphins offense for example and ask him to run their plays, I dont think he is close to the #6 QB.

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BrownLeader

BrownLeader

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Posted (edited)
On 9/8/2021 at 2:52 PM, showtime said:

Biggest question for me is Odell Beckham Jr. He seems to play better in general when Beckham Jr. is not there, which doesn't make sense.

worth stating again...since 2019, 72.4 QB rating when targeting Beckham, and 89.9 when targeting anyone else.

It gets forgotten, but for the first 6 gms last year Baker was just as bad as he was in 2019. OBJ goes down and a literal switch was flipped.

For his career Baker has a 80.1 rating when OBJ is on the field. When OBJ is out his rating jumps to 97.0. I can't think of any other situation, since I've been watching football, where the QB actually plays worse when the #1 WR talent is on the field.

If Stefanski and the team can't figure it out, it's going to derail everything real quick.

Edited by BrownLeader
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Thomas5737

Thomas5737

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18 minutes ago, BrownLeader said:

worth stating again...since 2019, 72.4 QB rating when targeting Beckham, and 89.9 when targeting anyone else.

It gets forgotten, but for the first 6 gms last year Baker was just as bad as he was in 2019. OBJ goes down and a literally switch was flipped.

For his career Baker has a 80.1 rating when OBJ is on the field. When OBJ is out his rating jumps to 97.0. I can't think of any other situation, since I've been watching football, where the QB actually plays worse when the #1 WR talent is on the field.

If Stefanski and the team can't figure it out, it's going to derail everything real quick.

Mayfield had 3 games with a rating over 100 in 2019. He also had 3 games with a rating over 100 in the first 6 games last year.

Obviously OBJ hasn't been a positive overall but we were 5-2 in games he started it isn't like it's going to derail us into a losing team having him on the field.

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BrownLeader

BrownLeader

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8 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

Mayfield had 3 games with a rating over 100 in 2019. He also had 3 games with a rating over 100 in the first 6 games last year.

Obviously OBJ hasn't been a positive overall but we were 5-2 in games he started it isn't like it's going to derail us into a losing team having him on the field.

..and smashed 13 -76 by division rivals and the only two winning teams they faced in that 5-2. ;/

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Thomas5737

Thomas5737

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28 minutes ago, BrownLeader said:

..and smashed 13 -76 by division rivals and the only two winning teams they faced in that 5-2. ;/

WFT was competitive with the Bucs in the playoffs. Bengals were competitive until Burrow was injured. The Cowboys had 1 score losses to the Rams and Seahawks and a win vs. the Falcons when they played us with a healthy Dak (We were the only team to beat them by 2 scores with Dak playing).

Yeah the first game of the year against the Ravens with no preseason and a new coaching staff didn't go well but who expected it to? The Steelers steamrolled us, we were no match against them that day, sorta like the playoff game but the opposite result. OBJ wasn't a factor in that happening.

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JohnCena

JohnCena

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Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Wilson, Deshaun (whenever he returns) Herbert, Dak, and Kyler will all remain above him. He is in that next range of 10-15 though, but there’s really not much he can do for me to say he’s better than the first 7 guys on my list and I expect the other 3 to have even even better years and cement themselves in the top 10. Best I can say for Baker at the moment is 11 and that too he’d have to play better than Stafford which I can’t see, but at the moment I have him at 12 and expect him to stay there.

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onejayhawk

onejayhawk

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Posted (edited)
On 9/7/2021 at 9:04 AM, Ray Reed said:

He just needs a top 3 OL, top 2 backfield and Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry. That’s all

That's not true. The best tools cannot cure lack of talent. 

Besides, is the ghost of OBJ enough? 

On 9/8/2021 at 11:33 AM, MWil23 said:

I'm one of the biggest Steve Young fans on the planet...but he was considered a bust after 5 years. Not an exaggeration. 

I'll second this.

On 9/8/2021 at 1:52 PM, showtime said:

Yeah, I like Mayfield. I think he's already a borderline top 10 QB.

Biggest question for me is Odell Beckham Jr. He seems to play better in general when Beckham Jr. is not there, which doesn't make sense. Maybe he feels he has to force feed the ball to Beckham Jr., and that negatively impacts his game. Hopefully Beckham Jr. can stay healthy this season and those two play great together.

I am not going to second this. By most measures, Mayfield is mid-league say 12-18 range. FBO has him at #15 ALEX rating and #17 DVOA. That's well back from top-10. 

Someone who really is borderline top-10 is Justin Herbert. 

11 hours ago, JohnCena said:

Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Wilson, Deshaun (whenever he returns) Herbert, Dak, and Kyler will all remain above him. He is in that next range of 10-15 though, but there’s really not much he can do for me to say he’s better than the first 7 guys on my list and I expect the other 3 to have even even better years and cement themselves in the top 10. Best I can say for Baker at the moment is 11 and that too he’d have to play better than Stafford which I can’t see, but at the moment I have him at 12 and expect him to stay there.

I would add Carr to that list. If you want to see an offense explode, put Carr in Cleveland. With the Raiders dreadful supporting cast, Carr was better than Mayfield in yards, TDs and Int. See also Herbert. 

An interesting comp to Mayfield will be Teddy Bridgewater. They were comparable last season and Bridgewater is in a much better situation this year. 

Edited by onejayhawk
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