Will Baker Mayfield cement himself as a top-10 QB this year?

[FGK]

8 hours ago, Soggust said:

I came in here to destroy this crap take and upon an in-depth look at the stats,.......think you might have actually convinced me lol.

I mean, comparing stats for a third year player whose first two years were with some of the worst coaches in the last decade, vs. numbers for a guy who didn't start until he was playing for the greatest offensive HC of our generation...

[Soggust]

2 minutes ago, FGK said:

I mean, comparing stats for a third year player whose first two years were with some of the worst coaches in the last decade, vs. numbers for a guy who didn't start until he was playing for the greatest offensive HC of our generation...

What does that matter though? It's not an attack on his potential. My understanding is that they were discussing career stats, which suggest Jimmy G has a good argument (when he plays). "Baker had bad coaches" is irrelevant. Whatever happened (whether it be coaches, scheme fit, injuries, etc.) there are a zillion reasons players don't reach potential. To this point, all I'm saying is that I'm not sure Baker has outplayed him, regardless of the reason (which surprised me).

Could Baker improve and be substantially better than Jimmy G? Of course. But I have about the same amount of faith that Jimmy G is able to put together a completely healthy, solid season demonstrating his abilities as I do the Browns organization not ruining another QB's career.  

 

[Sugashane]

14 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I think you’re both right.

He’s like the layer of ice that forms on top of ice cream that’s been in the fridge for months.

That means the Bears situation has been freezer-burnt dollar tree eggrolls.

Weirdest ranking system I've come across yet but I kinda digging it.

[Tk3]

5 hours ago, FGK said:

I see you aren't aware of the whole "four HC/OCs in three years and two of the worst HC's in modern memory" thing about Baker's first couple years. I see you also didn't watch any Cleveland football this year or do research beyond the end of season stat line. This explains much of your input to this conversation so far.

Baker, 2020 season after week 6 (when the offense started clicking, new HC and COVID off-season, remember?) had a 21-2 TD to INT ratio, despite playing in 3 outdoor games with hurricane force winds. He had the 2nd highest PFF passing grade in the league, again, with 1/4 of his games in this stretch being in insane weather. He was between double and quadruple league average EPA against C0, C1, C2, C3, and C4 defenses. And he did it all while using LESS play action (33% the first six games to 27% the rest), and while grading out the same on PA and non-PA passes (as graded by PFF). He graded as the best QB in the NFL against blitzes the second half of the year.

https://www.si.com/nfl/browns/browns-maven-features/a-tale-of-two-mayfields

Like, I get it, he had a pretty up and down first couple years (possibly due to having two of the worst coaches in modern history?!?!?!?). I get why that makes people hesitant to buy in. That's fine. But anyone who paid attention to the 2nd half of the year is gonna have a REALLY tough time arguing that Baker isn't on his way to being, easily, a top 10 guy by the end of this year. And honestly, I'd bet top 7-8.

I actually am aware of the numerous coaches/schemes situation

believe it or not, Cleveland fans are very fond of repeatedly shouting that excuse at anyone who will listen

I appreciate you actually coming in with support though. He did have an upward trend in the 2nd half of the year, it’s just not enough for me to just assume his inconsistencies are behind him

[MSURacerDT55]

On 9/3/2021 at 11:11 PM, wackywabbit said:

Did you read what you bolded? Excluding a game he did not play isn't making an excuse. Or if it is... then yes, it is a good one. 

But anyway, back to Baker... The way the team and offense is structured, the way for him to be a top 10 this year is to follow the Tannehill model from the last two years. Execute and capitalize on play action, high depth of target throws, with extremely high efficiency and have the negative plays/TOs down to a very low level. And be great in the red zone. That's what the Browns should hope for.

This is a fair take 

[MSURacerDT55]

15 hours ago, Soggust said:

. "Baker had bad coaches" is irrelevant.

Pfft, I wonder where Patrick Mahomes career would be of he had Hue Jackson as his coach....

Where you land and what coach you get means everything to your career as a QB. Terrible take....

[jebrick]

On 9/2/2021 at 1:02 PM, SkippyX said:

The Ravens are running a college offense at a very high level. It worked for DC for a year. It worked for SF for about 3 years. It may work out in Baltimore for a few more years.

Its never been sustainable.

It is an offense that takes advantage of teams playing lighter LBs for speed and coverage.  I think it will will games but not in the playoffs unless Jackson can make that next step as a passer.  Tennessee has the same "type" of offense but Tannehill is  a much better passer and it shows.

[Thomas5737]

12 hours ago, Tk3 said:

I actually am aware of the numerous coaches/schemes situation

believe it or not, Cleveland fans are very fond of repeatedly shouting that excuse at anyone who will listen

I appreciate you actually coming in with support though. He did have an upward trend in the 2nd half of the year, it’s just not enough for me to just assume his inconsistencies are behind him

He hasn't been inconsistent though. He has been pretty much the same since his rookie year. Year 2 he was running for his life and threw a lot of picks trying to make plays and get us back in games but he was still throwing dimes.

I wouldn't try to convince anyone who watched all of Mayfield's games anything. You have seen what he has and you either accept that it is pretty impressive or you don't and we just see things differently.

If you haven't watched him then I get why people are trying to enlighten others, you look at stats and hear rants and think he is an average QB with a great supporting cast. The Browns probably win 4 or 5 games last year with an average QB.

[Soggust]

2 hours ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

Pfft, I wonder where Patrick Mahomes career would be of he had Hue Jackson as his coach....

Where you land and what coach you get means everything to your career as a QB. Terrible take....

Baker has been better than Jimmy G (when playing) because his coaching is worse?

Are Deshaun Watson and Dak Prescott better than Mahomes and Brady, because they had worse coaching? Or do stats matter at some point?

Also, do we get to give Jimmy G credit for what he could have been had he had the consistency of staying healthy and gotten those game reps + team chemistry? What if we gave him a pair of receivers like Landry + ODB? 

[Thomas5737]

27 minutes ago, Soggust said:

Baker has been better than Jimmy G (when playing) because his coaching is worse?

Are Deshaun Watson and Dak Prescott better than Mahomes and Brady, because they had worse coaching? Or do stats matter at some point?

Also, do we get to give Jimmy G credit for what he could have been had he had the consistency of staying healthy and gotten those game reps + team chemistry? What if we gave him a pair of receivers like Landry + ODB? 

OBJ hasn't been a positive for the Browns, at least yet so sure take him into consideration. Landry is a bull but both of those guys get caught by linebackers and are small it isn't like they are great threats. You would also have to lose George Kittle in that scenario.

[Soggust]

5 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

OBJ hasn't been a positive for the Browns, at least yet so sure take him into consideration. Landry is a bull but both of those guys get caught by linebackers and are small it isn't like they are great threats. You would also have to lose George Kittle in that scenario.

But this is the tree, not the forest right? 

My point is that you can argue these hypotheticals forever, but the reality is that when comparing career to date, it's fair to suggest you are what you've produced and it's not crazy to think Jimmy G has been better when he's played. /shrug

[Tk3]

16 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

OBJ hasn't been a positive for the Browns, at least yet so sure take him into consideration. Landry is a bull but both of those guys get caught by linebackers and are small it isn't like they are great threats. You would also have to lose George Kittle in that scenario.

I mean

This is literally part of the knock on Baker Mayfield

You get a guy who was top 5 or so in the league and he's now essentially a replacement level starter

There's a problem there. Injuries obviously are part of the issue, but even when healthy those two never clicked. I don't think you can say "OBJ isn't great anymore, therefore you can't count him as a weapon for Baker". I think you have to say "Baker and OBJ are not working together, and that's a huge negative mark against both players"

[MWil23]

It’s honestly a fair critique to a degree and I understand it, the same reason that I’m personally intrigued to see how Allen does this year in a year where there are fans in the stands and he has to play a better schedule and doesn’t revert back to some major turnover and accuracy issues that he had his entire career with last year as an outlier. I’m not betting on it, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all.

Just like I assume Jimmy G won’t play 16+ games or Kirk Cousins will be the model of frustration at points throughout the year.

[Thomas5737]

24 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

I mean

This is literally part of the knock on Baker Mayfield

You get a guy who was top 5 or so in the league and he's now essentially a replacement level starter

There's a problem there. Injuries obviously are part of the issue, but even when healthy those two never clicked. I don't think you can say "OBJ isn't great anymore, therefore you can't count him as a weapon for Baker". I think you have to say "Baker and OBJ are not working together, and that's a huge negative mark against both players"

OBJ hasn't been arguably a top 5 WR since Blake Bortles and Carson Palmer were lighting it up in 2015.

Aside from his rookie year OBJ hasn't been a decent catch percentage guy or YPR guy so he has relied on target volume to accumulate stats and that can be done with anyone.

[Forge]

Is Baker capable of putting up a top ten season this year? 100%. He's also capable of putting together a season that is closer to 20 than 10. That's why I think it's really difficult to say "cements". I think it would just take a long time for that to actually happen. I mean, look at Kirk. He's been what he has been for quite some time now and people are still not completely in on him being a top 10 guy. I think that entire tier of quarterbacks is simply too volatile year to year to ever really "cement" their position in that grouping, which is why it takes years to actually do...you have to move above that tier. May be a semantical argument regarding the adjective selected, but that is part of the question.