Will Baker Mayfield cement himself as a top-10 QB this year?

[buno67]

3 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

I never said Kitchens ran his offense. I'm just repeating what every Browns fan said after the 2018 season. 

Thats what every browns fan said before the season. They all thought it was going to be a continuation from the year before for the offense. 
 

Don’t forget that the former Browns Offensive line coach even called out Freddie saying the credit for the success was because of Al Suanders and Ken Zampese. freddie sacked the whole coaching staff and the offense that won him the job just so he could install the Bruce Arians system.

[Tk3]

2 hours ago, DawgX said:

Agree with most of this. You could argue he was a game manager for the first six or so weeks of last season, but that's about it. I remember during his rookie year that was actually one of my biggest criticisms of him - that he would sometimes too often look for the big play rather than the easier, smaller play.

Yup, you're him since you gave the same silly reasons the last time.

First of all, comparing career numbers isn't great when Jimmy has been in the league much longer and has played in two schemes in his entire career, while Baker has played in more in a much shorter amount of time. I think McDaniels and Shanahan are better coaches and offensive minds than Hue Jackson and Freddie Kitchens.

Career record is the worst of the bunch because football is obviously a team sport. I'd say that Jimmy has played on much better teams with the 49ers and Patriots than Baker has.

Comp% is a really flawed statistic. Doesn't take into account passes thrown away, dropped passes, etc. Granted I'd like to see Baker's increase, but I know it ignores context.

Baker definitely threw too many INTs his first two years, but he cut those numbers down dramatically last year. And he actually threw less interceptions as the year went on WHILE he was throwing the ball more often. 

Baker has been the better QB.



 

 

"I don't agree with any of your stats so I'll try to dispute all of them and then just at the end say just Baker is better with absolutely zero support or rationale"

-DawgX

Edited September 4, 2021 by Tk3

[AkronsWitness]

12 hours ago, Forge said:

He is...not as accurate as Kyler though. 1st and 5th for Kyler the last two years, 5th and 8th for Mayfield. There's obviously some variance because you're dealing with smaller samples (stats via deep ball project from football outsiders)

Because Kirk and Carr are freakishly accurate throwers of the football. That's not an insult to Baker...he can be good and people can be better (though over the last two years he's been rather meh with regards to his ball placement / accuracy compared to the rest of the league. A lot goes into that though..style of play, scheme, etc...but there's nothing that supports it's an elite trait in the nfl yet). 

Also, the fact that its' one of his biggest strengths doesn't really mean much if he's not a great QB to begin with. Accuracy is one of Jimmy G's greatest strengths...saying that in a vacuum means absolutely nothing. Doesn't mean he's as accurate as Aaron Rodgers or anything (but it also doesn't mean he's not as accurate...as I said...doesn't mean much in a vacuum just because it's one of his best traits....I have no idea if that makes sense or not lol) 

Depends on where you put him. You're fighting the bottom of the top ten with guys like Stafford, Kirk, Carr...so I certainly have no problem taking a guy like Kyler in that spot. That's a tier that on any given day can completely crap the bed or play lights out. There's a *lot* of play variance between those guys in that tier on any given day. He's getting a bump for his running though, I don't think that is debatable. 

Derek Carr is the vanilla ice cream of quarterbacks. Sure he gets the job done but he is just so uninspiring. That and he's so incredibly afraid to throw deep andLor make a mistake so he either sails the ball 35 yards OB or takes entirely too many sacks. He's somewhere in between Alex Smith and Teddy Bridgewater.

He's confidently conservative.

As far as Kyler, I feel like he's gotten more hype than he probably deserves. He's made some wow throws, but has been bad as many times as he's been good but people seem to just overlook his terrible games for whatever reason

 

[SBLIII]

I'd put Kyler and Baker in the same category. Somewhere between 10-15.

 

Baker in the 2nd year under Stefanski should be very interesting though. I wouldn't be surprised if people view him in the top 7 when the season is over.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

Imo the top 6-8 are pretty well cemented as of now.  8-15 there’s a lot of beauty in the eye of the beholder.  I personally think he is and will be, but I’m not even remotely unbiased.

For all the talk of his inconsistency, people seem to ignore the fact he’s had 4 head coaches and as many OC’s in his first 3 seasons.  What type of consistency should we expect from a guy in those circumstances?  I’d argue most QB’s would bust out completely, but Baker has not only kept his head above water, he’s played some really great football at times.

[Calamity_Cometh]

32 minutes ago, AkronsWitness said:

Derek Carr is the vanilla ice cream of quarterbacks. Sure he gets the job done but he is just so uninspiring. That and he's so incredibly afraid to throw deep andLor make a mistake so he either sails the ball 35 yards OB or takes entirely too many sacks. He's somewhere in between Alex Smith and Teddy Bridgewater.

He's confidently conservative.

As far as Kyler, I feel like he's gotten more hype than he probably deserves. He's made some wow throws, but has been bad as many times as he's been good but people seem to just overlook his terrible games for whatever reason

 

I love vanilla ice cream. He's more like chewing ice cubes. You do it when there's nothing better. Brain freeze without the flavor.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

1 minute ago, Calamity_Cometh said:

I love vanilla ice cream. He's more like chewing ice cubes. You do it when there's nothing better. Brain freeze without the flavor.

I think you’re both right.

He’s like the layer of ice that forms on top of ice cream that’s been in the fridge for months.

[AkronsWitness]

3 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I think you’re both right.

He’s like the layer of ice that forms on top of ice cream that’s been in the fridge for months.

Gruden scared him into never wanting to make a mistake so he only throws screens and 5-10 yard slants now

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

Just now, AkronsWitness said:

Gruden scared him into never wanting to make a mistake so he only throws screens and 5-10 yard slants now

Which is a shame because he can really sling it when he wants to.

[DawgX]

8 hours ago, Tk3 said:

 

"I don't agree with any of your stats so I'll try to dispute all of them and then just at the end say just Baker is better with absolutely zero support or rationale"

-DawgX

When the stats you bring up are empty and lack context, then yes.

If we brought up Josh Allen's career stats, they would be misleading when talking about the player he is right now.

[Tk3]

1 hour ago, DawgX said:

When the stats you bring up are empty and lack context, then yes.

If we brought up Josh Allen's career stats, they would be misleading when talking about the player he is right now.

you can argue some stats are meaningless.. but ALL the stats favor Jimmy

you don't like using career numbers? how about the fact that Jimmy's BEST year is better than Baker's BEST year? Baker's WORST year is worse than Jimmy's WORST year. Jimmy's last full year was better than Baker's last full year.

As for Josh Allen - I agree you have to factor in trending when it comes to a player like him. But surely you can't suggest that Baker's trajcetory is such that you ignore his body of work. His 2020 season was just okay. It was fine, I'm not saying he's a bad QB. But he was merely an average QB on an otherwise very good offense.

[Soggust]

10 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

you can argue some stats are meaningless.. but ALL the stats favor Jimmy

you don't like using career numbers? how about the fact that Jimmy's BEST year is better than Baker's BEST year? Baker's WORST year is worse than Jimmy's WORST year. Jimmy's last full year was better than Baker's last full year.

As for Josh Allen - I agree you have to factor in trending when it comes to a player like him. But surely you can't suggest that Baker's trajcetory is such that you ignore his body of work. His 2020 season was just okay. It was fine, I'm not saying he's a bad QB. But he was merely an average QB on an otherwise very good offense.

I came in here to destroy this crap take and upon an in-depth look at the stats,.......think you might have actually convinced me lol.

[iknowcool]

19 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

you don't like using career numbers? how about the fact that Jimmy's BEST year is better than Baker's BEST year? Baker's WORST year is worse than Jimmy's WORST year. Jimmy's last full year was better than Baker's last full year.

I mean... Jimmy's last full year is his only full year.  Not only is it his only full year, it is the only time he's played even half of a season.  An almost 30-year old QB who has only played more than 6 games in a season once.

There's really no way you can put them on the same level, unless you don't care about availability whatsoever. 

[Rod Johnson]

1 hour ago, iknowcool said:

I mean... Jimmy's last full year is his only full year.  Not only is it his only full year, it is the only time he's played even half of a season.  An almost 30-year old QB who has only played more than 6 games in a season once.

There's really no way you can put them on the same level, unless you don't care about availability whatsoever. 

Right.  I have no problem with the idea that Jimmy is better than Baker when he plays, but you'd be crazy to want him on your team over Baker.

[FGK]

8 hours ago, Tk3 said:

But surely you can't suggest that Baker's trajcetory is such that you ignore his body of work. His 2020 season was just okay. It was fine, I'm not saying he's a bad QB. But he was merely an average QB on an otherwise very good offense.

I see you aren't aware of the whole "four HC/OCs in three years and two of the worst HC's in modern memory" thing about Baker's first couple years. I see you also didn't watch any Cleveland football this year or do research beyond the end of season stat line. This explains much of your input to this conversation so far.

Baker, 2020 season after week 6 (when the offense started clicking, new HC and COVID off-season, remember?) had a 21-2 TD to INT ratio, despite playing in 3 outdoor games with hurricane force winds. He had the 2nd highest PFF passing grade in the league, again, with 1/4 of his games in this stretch being in insane weather. He was between double and quadruple league average EPA against C0, C1, C2, C3, and C4 defenses. And he did it all while using LESS play action (33% the first six games to 27% the rest), and while grading out the same on PA and non-PA passes (as graded by PFF). He graded as the best QB in the NFL against blitzes the second half of the year.

https://www.si.com/nfl/browns/browns-maven-features/a-tale-of-two-mayfields

Like, I get it, he had a pretty up and down first couple years (possibly due to having two of the worst coaches in modern history?!?!?!?). I get why that makes people hesitant to buy in. That's fine. But anyone who paid attention to the 2nd half of the year is gonna have a REALLY tough time arguing that Baker isn't on his way to being, easily, a top 10 guy by the end of this year. And honestly, I'd bet top 7-8.