Will Baker Mayfield cement himself as a top-10 QB this year?

[Bearerofnews]

On 9/3/2021 at 7:09 AM, MWil23 said:

I mean, if you would take Cousins or Kyler Murray over Baker, I'd love to hear legitimate arguments as to what they've done to make that the case as of right now. I understand the Herbert love, but I'd like to remind folks that people would have "cemented" Baker after his rookie year as well, but then fell off mightily in year 2. I'm not saying that WILL happen with Herbert, but approach with caution.

Pull up bruh 

Edited September 6, 2021 by Bearerofnews

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

3 minutes ago, Forge said:

It is completely absurd...particularly the INT rate. That's just stupid. Obviously there will be regression, but that's pretty sick. Especially when you consider that one of the games was a rainstorm and one was with Baker's dry cleaner playing WR 

And a third had 40 mph winds 

[Soggust]

Just now, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

He had 21 TD’s and 2 picks the second half of the year and playoffs.

There’s no metric where that isn’t really damned good.

It's a good thing I never said it wasn't. I agree it's good. The debate was whether it was top 3. While you could say "Well maybe he's 4 or 5 etc", it's this type of hyperbole that discredits Baker amongst non-Browns fans who see it (and therefore other takes) as homerism.

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Deshaun Watson, Mahomes or Rodgers

Those are just the first 3 I looked up and I'll take all 3 (Week 7+) over Baker statistically.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

3 minutes ago, Soggust said:

It's a good thing I never said it wasn't. I agree it's good. The debate was whether it was top 3. While you could say "Well maybe he's 4 or 5 etc", it's this type of hyperbole that discredits Baker amongst non-Browns fans who see it (and therefore other takes) as homerism.

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Deshaun Watson, Mahomes or Rodgers

Those are just the first 3 I looked up and I'll take all 3 (Week 7+) over Baker statistically.

Listen pal, I don’t come here to **** measure or argue, I always lose anyway, I’m just saying that the perception of Baker based on box score watchers doesn’t match what he has displayed over his first 3 season when you actually watch him play and apply context.

Edited September 6, 2021 by LETSGOBROWNIES

[Soggust]

1 minute ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Listen pal, I don’t come here to **** measure or argue, I always lose anyway, I’m just saying that the perception of Baker based on box score watchers doesn’t match what he has displayed over his first 3 season when you actually watch him play and apply context.

Then I'm not sure why you felt compelled to explain that a 26:2 TD/INT ratio is good simply because I suggested he wasn't a top 3 QB statistically. 

I think what Browns fans don't seem to understand is that just because the majority of other team's fans have him outside of the top 10-12, they feel like "he's trash". It couldn't be further from the truth. I think Baker is closer to Russell Wilson than Tyrod Taylor. I think Baker can win you a super bowl, with the right team. The fact a lot of us don't consider him top 10 is because there are a lot of killers in the top 10. In fact, the biggest problem with Baker is that if he DOESN'T take a step forward, he's going to demand a lot of money because he's NOT trash and it's going to put that organization in a weird spot.

[Forge]

17 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Carr is only “one of the best deep passers” in the league because he only throws if a guy is wide open. This super inflates his deep passing metrics on sites like PFF. He is not a guy who is gonna throw a tight throw deep, nor is he good at it. 

Same for Jimmy. You see that PFF stat get thrown around all the time in 49er twitter circles. "Most accurate downfield passer on passes of 20 yards are more!!!" 

The Jimmy stans really, really love to throw it out there. 

[BayRaider]

Just now, Forge said:

Same for Jimmy. You see that PFF stat get thrown around all the time in 49er twitter circles. "Most accurate downfield passer on passes of 20 yards are more!!!" 

The Jimmy stans really, really love to throw it out there. 

Yes. It’s simply not accurate because it doesn’t paint a full picture. Hell, I could have the best deep passing stats in the league if I threw only when Ruggs breaks free. It’s the most useless QB stat that PFF tracks and paints an incomplete picture. 

[43M]

I absolutely believe Baker can and likely will be a top 10 QB year, but the question is, how DEEP into the top 10.    

For those saying "no", top 10 isnt necessarily GREAT.       It really depends on how other QBs play RELATIVE to Baker, not just how Baker himself plays.   

Top 10 or not, this is a career defining year for Baker.     If he plays well, the Browns have pretty much found their long term franchise QB.    If he regresses or simply doesnt live up to expectations, it puts the Browns in a tough situation since Baker will be up for a contact extension next year.    Do you pay him and possibly end up in a Joe Flacco-esque situation, or do you wait and possibly end up in a Kirk Cousins situation?

I personally believe he will be in the 6-12 range this year and be at least a solid starter for many years.   Im sold on him being a solid-good QB, but can he be GREAT or ELITE?      We'll see.

Edited September 6, 2021 by 43M

[MrOaktown_56]

1 hour ago, FGK said:

Yeah, strongly disagree here. Obviously it's dependent on whether or not you buy the last 12 games of 2020. But he was absolutely better than both of those guys during that period. Less volume for sure, so I guess you can argue it wouldn't translate with more?

If you choose the first 8 games of 2020, Carr was a borderline top 5 quarterback off of #'s. And yet no one will argue that he is one, including me. Baker is a pretty good starter, but 12 games isn't a real body of work in my opinion. But I do think he'll be better this year. I just don't think he'll "cement" himself as a top 10 quarterback unless he firmly puts himself ahead of Carr/Stafford/Cousins/Ryan/Tanehill (not in any order). And I don't know that he's done that yet. No hate/disrespect meant.

[MrOaktown_56]

44 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Carr is only “one of the best deep passers” in the league because he only throws if a guy is wide open. This super inflates his deep passing metrics on sites like PFF. He is not a guy who is gonna throw a tight throw deep, nor is he good at it. 

He doesn't attempt a lot of tight window deep throws, but he's a very accurate downfield passer, especially compared to league average. And we have to factor in that this is Gruden's offense. He prefers shorter throws and high percentage completions. But we're not going to sit here and compare him to Alex Smith and Teddy Bridgewater to prop up Baker. That's laughable.

[Forge]

17 minutes ago, 43M said:

I absolutely believe Baker can and likely will be a top 10 QB year, but the question is, how DEEP into the top 10.    

For those saying "no", top 10 isnt necessarily GREAT.       It really depends on how other QBs play RELATIVE to Baker, not just how Baker himself plays.   

Top 10 or not, this is a career defining year for Baker.     If he plays well, the Browns have pretty much found their long term franchise QB.    If he regresses or simply doesnt live up to expectations, it puts the Browns in a tough situation since Baker will be up for a contact extension next year.    Do you pay him and possibly end up in a Joe Flacco-esque situation, or do you wait and possibly end up in a Kirk Cousins situation?

I personally believe he will be in the 6-12 range this year and be at least a solid starter for many years.   Im sold on him being a solid-good QB, but can he be GREAT or ELITE?      We'll see.

100%. I think he could be a top 10 QB this year, no problem. As much as FF wants to crap on them, guys like Kirk, Stafford, Carr have been top ten QBs in the past as well. There are a lot of people capable of that type of season. My biggest issue with this thread has been the use of the word "cements" in the OP LOL. Top ten is not necessarily greatness or anything, but definitely a start. And I have the same money concerns as you're mentioning, which is even the more pressing issue for me as a neutral observer. I mentioned this last year as well....right now, I'm concerned if Baker wants something like 35-40 million per season. He may alleviate some of those concerns after the season is over, so it doesn't mean much either way, but right now they certainly exist because as you alluded to, there's a chance that he's a solid - good and those are not guys I'm wanting to break the bank for (which is a wholly unreasonable stance that I have admitted to having in the past) 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

55 minutes ago, Soggust said:

Then I'm not sure why you felt compelled to explain that a 26:2 TD/INT ratio is good simply because I suggested he wasn't a top 3 QB statistically. 

I think what Browns fans don't seem to understand is that just because the majority of other team's fans have him outside of the top 10-12, they feel like "he's trash". It couldn't be further from the truth. I think Baker is closer to Russell Wilson than Tyrod Taylor. I think Baker can win you a super bowl, with the right team. The fact a lot of us don't consider him top 10 is because there are a lot of killers in the top 10. In fact, the biggest problem with Baker is that if he DOESN'T take a step forward, he's going to demand a lot of money because he's NOT trash and it's going to put that organization in a weird spot.

I’m not arguing with you fella.  I literally just said I understand why people are hesitant.

As far as the weird spot, there’s no weird spot.  Maybe he’s not top 10, but we haven’t had top 40 for like 30 years.  Lock that man up and let him continue to develop.

[43M]

39 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I’m not arguing with you fella.  I literally just said I understand why people are hesitant.

As far as the weird spot, there’s no weird spot.  Maybe he’s not top 10, but we haven’t had top 40 for like 30 years.  Lock that man up and let him continue to develop.

I have no doubt he will get paid.   The "weird spot" is more in regards to past situations that didnt really work out that well.   Not saying that will happen here...just that its happened before.

[J-ALL-DAY]

On 9/2/2021 at 9:44 AM, wackywabbit said:

Better Question is Josh Allen:

Lamar's Best Season > Allen's Best Season

Lamar's Second Best Season > Allen's Second Best Season

Lamar's Rookie Season > Allen's Rookie Season

All three of the above are solidly clear statements. So what are we doing?

I have been on the pro-Allen side since pre-draft, but placing him a level above Jackson now makes no sense. Lamar deserves more credit for how much he adds to his offensive situation. It would take a top QB performance to make this year's Ravens an above average offense, and I expect Lamar to do it.

I'm a big Jackson guy and have no problem with people having him over Allen, but you phrased it in a way to make Jackson look superior while leaving out context...Why would you directly compare rookie seasons and then not go season by season for the next two years? Allen wasn't good early on but look at his trajectory and how awesome he was last season. He is coming off a better season than Jackson and has gotten better every single season and that's why most have him over Jackson. You can say Jackson has been better in two of the three seasons but Allen is coming off a better 2020 campaign. He's the guy projected to have a better 2021 season than Jackson...That doesn't mean he will have a better season but that's what most are predicting. 

[wackywabbit]

Just now, J-ALL-DAY said:

I'm a big Jackson guy and have no problem with people having him over Allen, but you phrased it in a way to make Jackson look superior while leaving out context...Why would you directly compare rookie seasons and then not go season by season for the next two years? Allen wasn't good early on but look at his trajectory and how awesome he was last season. He is coming off a better season than Jackson and has gotten better every single season and that's why most have him over Jackson. You can say Jackson has been better in two of the three seasons but Allen is coming off a better 2020 campaign. He's the guy projected to have a better 2021 season than Jackson...That doesn't mean he will have a better season but that's what most are predicting. 

As I said in the other reply, I have them at about the same level. The "trajectory" case that you are making has been widely stated and is the reason most people put Allen a tier above Jackson now. My post was an alternate perspective with body of work, which no one seems to consider. The narrative that Lamar fell off a cliff last year and Josh Allen is stonks going up up up is equally shallow and lacking context... so I presented an intentionally shallow one the other way. You could make that case A for Allen, or make case B for Jackson based on what they've done, I think they should be viewed similarly. That is NOT what most people think though. Most think Allen is in a higher tier.