Trevor Lawrence is looking like a bad pick for the Jags

[NJerseypaint]

10 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

It may be that the 2021 QB class was not the bumper crop it was hyped to be. 

As for Trevor Lawrence, of the three things--coaching, blocking, and receivers--a team should have in place before expending all of this draft capital on a franchise QB, the Jaguars had none.  Now they're like the dog that caught the bus.

Teams with those three things aren't picking #1 overall.

[NeptunePenguins]

At this point Trevor Lawrence is a draft bust. I say that there isn't much hope for him as he doesn't seem interested in the NFL. 

[Dr A W Niloc]

1 hour ago, NJerseypaint said:

Teams with those three things aren't picking #1 overall.

     And should therefore be trading down until they have the latter two, at least.

[THE DUKE]

1 hour ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

It may be that the 2021 QB class was not the bumper crop it was hyped to be. 

As for Trevor Lawrence, of the three things--coaching, blocking, and receivers--a team should have in place before expending all of this draft capital on a franchise QB, the Jaguars had none.  Now they're like the dog that caught the bus.

If you don't have a franchise QB and there is one available, then you take him.  Period.  No such chance is guaranteed in the future.

[ET80]

Some of these expectations are absolutely asinine. What would have happened if Buffalo took a similar stance from Y1 of Josh Allen?

[.Buzz]

37 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

     And should therefore be trading down until they have the latter two, at least.

Yeah, a team with no QB who is in position to get an elite QB prospect should definitely pass on that to improve everywhere else since theyll be in position to grab an elite QB prospect again. They grow on trees.

And again, their blocking is average/fine. They lost their other 1st round pick and top WR early on. Not that the weapons were good enough then either, but it’s making it visibly much worse.

[ronjon1990]

17 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Some of these expectations are absolutely asinine. What would have happened if Buffalo took a similar stance from Y1 of Josh Allen?

Fundamentally, I agree with you. 3 years is my QB grace period for rookies, especially 1st rounders, because they're usually entering poor situations (either the team sucks or they're gonna be sitting behind someone for a few years). 

I think where people differentiate Allen from Lawrence is that it was well documented, even in the draft talking heads community, that Allen was a raw work in progress. 

Lawrence has been talked up as the second coming of The Voice That Guides Cal McNair since like 2018 and any who do much as questioned his ability to reset the NFL record books for passing yards, passing TDs, QB rush yards, QB rush TDs, QB rec yards, QB rec TDs, longest air yards completion, longest QB sneak, Superbowls won, lost, and played in, and longest punt by a QB on 1st and 10 from his own 5 yard line was crazy and had zero understanding of what it takes to be a QB. 

I wasn't a fan of his whatsoever myself. I just also refuse to buy into QB hype and can also recognize that Jacksonville sucks too to bottom and inside out, far beyond Lawrence. Point being, I think a lot of this is blowback for the endless Trevy love and praise fest we've been subjected to for the last 3 or so years. People we're promised something that couldn't possibly be attainted, and now they're pointing it out. 

You're right on the expectations being ludicrous. But those expectations were also built by the ludicrous hyping of Lawrence as a prospect. 

Edited December 2, 2021 by ronjon1990

[.Buzz]

7 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

Fundamentally, I agree with you. 3 years is my QB grace period for rookies, especially 1st rounders, because they're usually entering poor situations (either the team sucks or they're gonna be sitting behind someone for a few years). 

I think where people differentiate Allen from Lawrence is that it was well documented, even in the draft talking heads community, that Allen was a raw work in progress. 

Lawrence has been talked up as the second coming of The Voice That Guides Cal McNair since like 2018 and any who do much as questioned his ability to reset the NFL record books for passing yards, passing TDs, QB rush yards, QB rush TDs, QB rec yards, QB rec TDs, longest air yards completion, longest QB sneak, Superbowls won, lost, and played in, and longest punt by a QB on 1st and 10 from his own 5 yard line was crazy and had zero understanding of what it takes to be a QB. 

I wasn't a fan of his whatsoever myself. I just also refuse to buy into QB hype and can also recognize that Jacksonville sucks too to bottom and inside out, far beyond Lawrence. Point being, I think a lot of this is blowback for the endless Trevy love and praise fest we've been subjected to for the last 3 or so years. People we're promised something that couldn't possibly be attainted, and now they're pointing it out. 

You're right on the expectations being ludicrous. But those expectations were also built by the ludicrous hyping of Lawrence as a prospect. 

I mean, it was pretty deserved and he’s still showing it in games. Pretty clear by watching unless we’re just looking at box scores that he’s different.

Top targets this year have been a guy who was a converted corner in Detroit a couple years ago (who was the best separator and now out for the year), Laquon Treadwell, and an aging/regressing Marvin Jones. Not sure anyone in the league (let alone a rookie) is getting much from that.

Not acting as if he’s perfect, sometimes his ball placement leaves a bit to be desired, but he’s still cut from a different cloth and that’s evident. 

 

[WizeGuy]

30 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Some of these expectations are absolutely asinine. What would have happened if Buffalo took a similar stance from Y1 of Josh Allen?

Yup. I am concerned about Jacksonville being able to develop him and surround him with a solid supporting cast like Buffalo did. I'm doubtful they'll be able to get every ounce of potential out of him. 

Edited December 2, 2021 by WizeGuy

[.Buzz]

5 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

Yup. I am concerned about Jacksonville being able to develop him and surround him with a solid supporting cast like Buffalo did. 

This is the only concern people should have as far as Lawrence is concerned.

Does Jacksonville hit in the draft/bring in competent weapons to surround Lawrence? This off-season you need to sign at least one legit vet FA and draft 3+ receivers imo. 

[Uncle Buck]

2 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

It may be that the 2021 QB class was not the bumper crop it was hyped to be. 

As for Trevor Lawrence, of the three things--coaching, blocking, and receivers--a team should have in place before expending all of this draft capital on a franchise QB, the Jaguars had none.  Now they're like the dog that caught the bus.

I would have to disagree with that.  When a team goes 1-15, it makes sense to assume that these areas are all bad, but I have to defend the offensive line a little bit.  They aren't one of the worst O-lines in the league.  I'd say they are at least average.

When it comes to the receivers, we came into the season thinking we had two that were at least serviceable in Chark and Shenault.  Unfortunately, Chark was injured early, and Shenault is the kind of player who is hard to find a role for.  We need to get him the ball more, but he also needs to hold onto the ball when Trevor does pass it to him.  If we could add a good receiver in the next draft and maybe another veteran in free agency, things could change quickly.

Finally, coaching, I'm not going to make a declaration on Urban yet because it is just too early.  As is the case with any coach, you have to give him some time to build up the roster and then let him work his plan.  Urban may end up being a total failure, but he could also end up being very successful in the NFL, as he was at the college ranks.  In any case, it is too early to make a judgement on him right now.

[ET80]

12 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

Yup. I am concerned about Jacksonville being able to develop him and surround him with a solid supporting cast like Buffalo did. I'm doubtful they'll be able to get every ounce of potential out of him. 

But does that predicate Lawrence as a bust... or Jacksonville as an inept franchise? 

Should that be the barometer of how you validate whether or not a guy is a bust?

[minutemancl]

2 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

It may be that the 2021 QB class was not the bumper crop it was hyped to be. 

As for Trevor Lawrence, of the three things--coaching, blocking, and receivers--a team should have in place before expending all of this draft capital on a franchise QB, the Jaguars had none.  Now they're like the dog that caught the bus.

I've seen a few people say this recently about a few different teams and I could not disagree more. It is entirely impractical and nearly impossible to build a team this way.

You can't pass on a potential franchise QB when you don't have one because your OL sucks, for example. You take the QB and build around them.

[.Buzz]

12 minutes ago, ET80 said:

But does that predicate Lawrence as a bust... or Jacksonville as an inept franchise? 

Should that be the barometer of how you validate whether or not a guy is a bust?

I mean, at this level a QB needs a coaching staff who plays to said QBs strengths and a franchise to put competent players around them to succeed.

Even as talented as some of these guys are, they aren’t doing it alone. 
 

(The staff imo has actually been fine. I think they should be putting more exotic concepts/scheme guys open in order to get easy looks as the talent is not there for them to beat defenses in a traditional way, but I don’t think they’ve done anything to hold back Lawrence besides that).

[JAF-N72EX]

3 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

It may be that the 2021 QB class was not the bumper crop it was hyped to be. 

As for Trevor Lawrence, of the three things--coaching, blocking, and receivers--a team should have in place before expending all of this draft capital on a franchise QB, the Jaguars had none.  Now they're like the dog that caught the bus.

2 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

     And should therefore be trading down until they have the latter two, at least.

I can understand your logic here (at least I think so anyhow). Have a solid foundation already built so the QB can develop and thrive right out the gate as opposed to throwing them to the wolves. And I get this, but it's not that simple either.

For one, no team should ever pass up on a chance to get a once in a generation talent like T-Law. Even if there are holes in OL and skill positions you can address these issues after the fact and not only build around the QB but also get players who better compliment T-Laws play style. Look at Joe Burrow for example. Cincy threw him out there in year 1 and got him killed but they addressed the QB position and used year 2 to build around him and now he's thriving.

Plus, lets say the Jags did pass up on T-Law and traded down for say 2 FRPs (just sake of argument). You're assuming those two players are going to be sure-fire hits which isn't always the case. So now not only did the Jags pass up on a once-in-generation QB but they are also still looking for those building blocks too.  

Not drafting T-Law would've went down as arguably the biggest blunder in history.

Edited December 2, 2021 by JAF-N72EX