The 2023 Draft Thread - We're picking #7

[drfrey13]

4 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Probably, because the fanbase would've been excited about the final couple of years in Oakland. The fact that the team was bad and they were moving forced his hand to make a big hire. Gruden immediately traded off Mack/Cooper because of how little talent / depth we had, he knew we had to rebuild. That was largely because of how poorly Reggie McKenzie drafted. No one from our 2017 draft class is even currently in the NFL, lol. 

RM's drafting left a lot to be desired but the impact on JDR getting fired is not as big as JDR's actions in the week 3 game.  That is just how I feel about.

[NYRaider]

6 minutes ago, drfrey13 said:

RM's drafting left a lot to be desired but the impact on JDR getting fired is not as big as JDR's actions in the week 3 game.  That is just how I feel about.

I think JDR's decision to promote Todd Downing to OC played just as big of a role, he was terrible at his job. The week 3 stuff definitely lost the locker room though.

[Nightmare]

6 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

If we trade Carr for #71 and trade #7 for Rodgers I am done.  Rodgers is better than Carr but when you factor age I do not know which one I want for the future.  If we trade Carr for #71 then trade #71 for Rodgers I will not be that angry.  I will not like it either.

Their respective contract situations make it more complicated than just thinking about the ability of each player.

Rodgers has a relatively small cap hit next year, whereas Carr’s is pretty big AND we’ve got to make a move before the trade window opens which removes some of our trade leverage.

 

[NYRaider]

28 minutes ago, Nightmare said:

Their respective contract situations make it more complicated than just thinking about the ability of each player.

Rodgers has a relatively small cap hit next year, whereas Carr’s is pretty big AND we’ve got to make a move before the trade window opens which removes some of our trade leverage.

Even if you're just comparing their abilities, Rodgers is clearly a SIGNIFICANT upgrade over Carr, he's the reigning back to back MVP for a reason, he's older but he's still at worst the 4th best QB in football. Going from Carr to Rodgers would be a bigger upgrade than the Rams going from Goff to Stafford a couple of years ago. We'd be replacing arguably the worst red zone QB in the league that struggles with turnovers to the best red zone QB in the league that's excellent at taking care of the ball. Carr's two biggest weaknesses are two of Rodgers biggest strengths. 

And then you factor in the fact that trading for Rodgers also creates $15M in cap space in comparison to Carr's deal and it's a home run. As I said before you can pay Rodgers and Jacobs the same amount that you were planning to pay Carr anyways. 

[BackinBlack]

5 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Even if you're just comparing their abilities, Rodgers is clearly a SIGNIFICANT upgrade over Carr, he's the reigning back to back MVP for a reason, he's older but he's still at worst the 4th best QB in football. Going from Carr to Rodgers would be a bigger upgrade than the Rams going from Goff to Stafford a couple of years ago. We'd be replacing arguably the worst red zone QB in the league that struggles with turnovers to the best red zone QB in the league that's excellent at taking care of the ball. Carr's two biggest weaknesses are two of Rodgers biggest strengths. 

And then you factor in the fact that trading for Rodgers also creates $15M in cap space in comparison to Carr's deal and it's a home run. As I said before you can pay Rodgers and Jacobs the same amount that you were planning to pay Carr anyways. 

Is rodgers not due 32Mil next season against the cap? at 40 mil in 24?
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/aaron-rodgers-3745/

Very similar to Carr? Dont see Jacobs signing for 1mil a year.

[ronjon1990]

6 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Even if you're just comparing their abilities, Rodgers is clearly a SIGNIFICANT upgrade over Carr, he's the reigning back to back MVP for a reason, he's older but he's still at worst the 4th best QB in football. Going from Carr to Rodgers would be a bigger upgrade than the Rams going from Goff to Stafford a couple of years ago. We'd be replacing arguably the worst red zone QB in the league that struggles with turnovers to the best red zone QB in the league that's excellent at taking care of the ball. Carr's two biggest weaknesses are two of Rodgers biggest strengths. 

And then you factor in the fact that trading for Rodgers also creates $15M in cap space in comparison to Carr's deal and it's a home run. As I said before you can pay Rodgers and Jacobs the same amount that you were planning to pay Carr anyways. 

I still think the Rams got the QB they needed, but the Lions got the better QB fwiw. 

Makes me wish we'd tried to swap for Goff. I think before all is said and done, Goff leads another team to a SB appearance at least. He really seems to be coming into his own, and dude just low-key wills his teams to victories. To think some were calling him an epic bust after year one with Jeff Fisher is just astounding. 

[drfrey13]

8 hours ago, Nightmare said:

Their respective contract situations make it more complicated than just thinking about the ability of each player.

Rodgers has a relatively small cap hit next year, whereas Carr’s is pretty big AND we’ve got to make a move before the trade window opens which removes some of our trade leverage.

 

We have already gone over their contracts and Rodgers costs a lot more than Carr.  it ends up being a 2 yr $98 million contract for Rodgers.  I took everything under consideration.  Carr situation sucks but like I said you always have to to be able to walk away to keep your leverage.  I am completely content to hold onto Carr pat 2/15 and if needed I would keep him on the team for another year.  I would not cave to Carr or any teams low ball trades.  Of course that is not how they have done it but there have been plenty of other teams in the past with problem players the do not cave.  He is under contract so it is my choice.  Next year after Lamar signs his contract $40 million will look more like an average QB contract  and Carr will only have $5-6 million guaranteed left.  If he plays, which I believe he would, a team would pay a lot more than a 3rd for him.

Be willing to walk away and then the ball is in his court to look like a professional and other teams will have to make serious offers.  I am okay with Carr's 2024 salary and is right where I thought his average would have been when he got extended.

[drfrey13]

2 hours ago, BackinBlack said:

Is rodgers not due 32Mil next season against the cap? at 40 mil in 24?
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/aaron-rodgers-3745/

Very similar to Carr? Dont see Jacobs signing for 1mil a year.

Rodgers contract is tricky and comes down to if you want to exercise the options for 2025 and 2026.

• $101.515M guaranteed at signing (2022 salary, 2022 roster bonus, 2023 salary, 2023 option bonus)
• 2022 Roster Bonus: $40.8M (fully guaranteed, treated as signing bonus, $20.4M paid 6/20/22, $20.4M paid 9/30/22)
• 2023 Option Bonus: $58.3M (guaranteed, must be exercised between March 17, 2023 - Week 1)
• 2024 Option Bonus (to exercise the 2026 compensation): $47M (injury guaranteed at signing, fully guarantees the 5th day of the 2024 waiver period)
• Declining either of the 2023-2024 options converts the base salary for that year into the bonus figure ($58.3M, $47M respectively)
• 2025 Roster Bonus: $5M (paid 4/15/2025)
• 2026 Roster Bonus: $5M (paid 4/15/2026)
• 5 year total contract value: $186,750,000
  3 year contract value: $150,815,000

I am not sure how the cap hits playout if you do a 3 year or 5 year but his numbers kill us over the next 2 years or kill us in 2025-26.  I want nothing to do with either one especially if we have to give up a lot of picks.

[101Raider]

1 hour ago, ronjon1990 said:

I still think the Rams got the QB they needed, but the Lions got the better QB fwiw. 

Makes me wish we'd tried to swap for Goff. I think before all is said and done, Goff leads another team to a SB appearance at least. He really seems to be coming into his own, and dude just low-key wills his teams to victories. To think some were calling him an epic bust after year one with Jeff Fisher is just astounding. 

Not trying to pick a fight, but this feels like revisionist history. I can’t think of one person that felt like Goff was going to be some sort of great QB moving forward at the time of the trade. 

[ronjon1990]

13 minutes ago, 101Raider said:

Not trying to pick a fight, but this feels like revisionist history. I can’t think of one person that felt like Goff was going to be some sort of great QB moving forward at the time of the trade. 

A few did, particularly myself and Jrry whatever in GEN. 

It wasn't so much that he was going to be top 5 great as it was a feeling that LA shafted him and way overvalued Stafford while undervaluing Goff to an extreme degree. And the way they basically just ghosted him rubbed a lot of people the wrong way. 

As with any trade, there was certainly an element of "if it works out", I'll give you that as it doesn't predict the future and relies on hindsight in the end. But Goff had a few fans lurking around saying not to be surprised if Detroit winds up keeping him long term and him being successful there. 

You're not entirely wrong- most fans and the media had Goff as a dead man walking from the moment the trade was announced. He was going to be a stopgap for a year, just a warm body included in the comp for Stafford, and ultimately someone's decent backup by 2022/2033. The Goff supporters were decidedly a minority 

Edited February 8, 2023 by ronjon1990

[NYRaider]

6 hours ago, BackinBlack said:

Is rodgers not due 32Mil next season against the cap? at 40 mil in 24?
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/aaron-rodgers-3745/

Very similar to Carr? Dont see Jacobs signing for 1mil a year.

 

We'd have to accept his 2026 option and pay him a $58M bonus but it'd lower his cap number to $15.7M.

Quote

The new team would have a $15.79 million 2023 cap hit for Rodgers consisting of the $14.575 million of option proration bonus, his $1.165 million base salary and $50,000 workout bonus. Rodgers' 2024, 2025 and 2026 cap numbers would be $32,541,666, $51,141,166 and $45,291,668. 

 

[G]

Haven't watched any college football this year but by looking at this site and a few others this is my list/ranking of Olinemen pre-combine

1st tier:  P. Skoronski, P. Johnson, B. Jones: Size, especially arm length but I'd be happy with either/any one but would hope that's after a slight trade down.

2nd tier: A. Harrison, D. Jones, D. Wright, O'C Torrence: All could be 1st rounders and if the big men run well WATCHOUT.

3rd tier: JM Schmitz, L, Wypler, J Duncan, S. Avila, J. Patterson, R. Stromberg, A. Vorhees, N. Broeker, C Mauch, O. Oluwatimi, Tippmann

4th tier: Kirkland, Ekiyor, Freeland, Morris, Forsyth, Z. Nelson...

We should at least get 2 Olinemen if not 3 from these two dozen names especially with a trade down. It really depends if some fall after a 'run' at a position fills other teams 'needs' and they don't double dip. 

[OldManWillis]

3 hours ago, G said:

Haven't watched any college football this year but by looking at this site and a few others this is my list/ranking of Olinemen pre-combine

1st tier:  P. Skoronski, P. Johnson, B. Jones: Size, especially arm length but I'd be happy with either/any one but would hope that's after a slight trade down.

2nd tier: A. Harrison, D. Jones, D. Wright, O'C Torrence: All could be 1st rounders and if the big men run well WATCHOUT.

3rd tier: JM Schmitz, L, Wypler, J Duncan, S. Avila, J. Patterson, R. Stromberg, A. Vorhees, N. Broeker, C Mauch, O. Oluwatimi, Tippmann

4th tier: Kirkland, Ekiyor, Freeland, Morris, Forsyth, Z. Nelson...

We should at least get 2 Olinemen if not 3 from these two dozen names especially with a trade down. It really depends if some fall after a 'run' at a position fills other teams 'needs' and they don't double dip. 

Agreed, I'm hoping we draft Wypler, Tippma ,or JMJ. Draft one and have them compete with Parham for center. Loser goes to RG where we know Parham can play. Get that interior oline solid.

 

[RaisinBran]

On 2/8/2023 at 1:11 AM, NYRaider said:

Even if you're just comparing their abilities, Rodgers is clearly a SIGNIFICANT upgrade over Carr, he's the reigning back to back MVP for a reason, he's older but he's still at worst the 4th best QB in football. Going from Carr to Rodgers would be a bigger upgrade than the Rams going from Goff to Stafford a couple of years ago. We'd be replacing arguably the worst red zone QB in the league that struggles with turnovers to the best red zone QB in the league that's excellent at taking care of the ball. Carr's two biggest weaknesses are two of Rodgers biggest strengths. 

And then you factor in the fact that trading for Rodgers also creates $15M in cap space in comparison to Carr's deal and it's a home run. As I said before you can pay Rodgers and Jacobs the same amount that you were planning to pay Carr anyways. 

I would love to have Rodgers... but I'm not so sure he is not a top 4 QB anymore.

Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Burrow, Hurts, Lamar...

He's certainly not who he used to be... although throwing to Adams would certainly help his stats. 

For what it's worth, Rodgers had 12 picks and 8 fumbles (4 lost) this past year...about the same turnover ratio as Carr and definitely had his share of red zone turnovers. 

Again, I'd love to have Rodgers... but let's temper our expectations a bit.  

[big_palooka]

2 hours ago, RaisinBran said:

I would love to have Rodgers... but I'm not so sure he is not a top 4 QB anymore.

Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Burrow, Hurts, Lamar...

He's certainly not who he used to be... although throwing to Adams would certainly help his stats. 

For what it's worth, Rodgers had 12 picks and 8 fumbles (4 lost) this past year...about the same turnover ratio as Carr and definitely had his share of red zone turnovers. 

Again, I'd love to have Rodgers... but let's temper our expectations a bit.  

He was the MVP in 2021. He was throwing to 2 rookie WRs all season.

Didn't see any decline in velocity or in his movement this season. He was often frustrated and pressing with a bad group of skills around him.

If he and JMD can co-exist, he could thrive. JMD does a great job scheming receivers open. They just needed a QB who could hit them consistently and let plays develop.