Official 2023 QB Thread

[Daniel]

2 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

Probably, but I definitely remember having most of my fights over Mahomes when he was predraft. I use to go nuts when someone said he was a 5th round prospect. Lol

Winning the lottery doesn't mean that lottery tickets are a good investment.

I was confused about Mahomes too, but I hadn't scouted him in depth.  I remember seeing "air raid" and stopping the analysis there, since, pre-Mahomes, no air raid QB had successfully transitioned to the NFL.  Mahomes is definitely an outlier, but at least he had like, a lot of TDs and a good TD/INT ratio in college.

Levis has tools, and he could absolutely blow up in the NFL and be a great player, but the draft is an exercise in calculated risk, and chances are very, very high that he just busts, IMO.

[CWood21]

On 3/1/2023 at 11:04 AM, HerbertGOAT said:

There were no big white QBs in the draft this year so they had to prop up Levis. End of story.

Literally has NOTHING to do with skin color.  Go troll elsewhere.

[CWood21]

13 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

Hope someone falls in love with him if it means a second trade back for Chocago though. 

Are you going to get enough to justify moving back from Will Anderson and/or Jalen Carter?  Because I have a hard time seeing that happening.

[MWil23]

12 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Winning the lottery doesn't mean that lottery tickets are a good investment.

I was confused about Mahomes too, but I hadn't scouted him in depth.  I remember seeing "air raid" and stopping the analysis there, since, pre-Mahomes, no air raid QB had successfully transitioned to the NFL.  Mahomes is definitely an outlier, but at least he had like, a lot of TDs and a good TD/INT ratio in college.

Levis has tools, and he could absolutely blow up in the NFL and be a great player, but the draft is an exercise in calculated risk, and chances are very, very high that he just busts, IMO.

You just took my thesis for why I would personally not draft Bryce Young that high to be honest.

[MWil23]

15 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

Patrick Mahomes couldn’t even beat out Davis Webb for the starting job at Texas Tech. Mahomes only played because Webb got hurt. What a failure Mahomes was. Hell Webb even beat out Baker Mayfield a year prior forcing Mayfield to transfer to Oklahoma. College coaches always make the right call at picking the right starting QB. Like Virginia Tech with Hendon Hooker. Or Penn State with Will Levis.

Or Ohio State with Dwayne Haskins over Joe Burrow.

Even Jalen Hurts is proving that something was off with his development coaching at Alabama.

[Trojan]

On 3/1/2023 at 9:09 AM, BetterCallSaul said:

Not really. Tanner McKee is bigger and whiter and his draft stock isn't in the 1st round. This is a dumb take. Levis isn't a great prospect, but he's not some trash prospect either. He grades out with a 2nd round grade, which if you factor in positional importance, shoots him up into the top 10 discussion.

Would I take Levis ahead of Stroud or Young? Not in a million years. But would I assign an "F" grade to a team that selected him in the top 10? No. He has a shot to be a very good NFL QB in the mold of Jay Cutler.

It is on PFF they have McKee as prospect #28

[Sad People]

5 foot 10.5 inches for Bryce Young.

[Sugashane]

14 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Are you going to get enough to justify moving back from Will Anderson and/or Jalen Carter?  Because I have a hard time seeing that happening.

So first, Carter's legal deal might throw a huge wrench in things potentially but I'm going to ignore that since I'm not sure what all is going on or going to happen. Not making light of whatever he might be guilty of, just don't know and there's going to be a lot of happenings in the next few weeks for it. So I'll speak as if everything gets cleared. 

If it was MY choice I'd take smaller trade backs with HOU and IND. Trading 1.1 to HOU for 1.2 and either their 2nd this year or first next year would seal the deal for me immediately. By draftek's chart they 'lose' about 200 points if they keep the trade all in 2023 but for a QB of your choice that is literally a joke. Especially if you can draft potentially a top 5 pick next year still.

Second I'd try to trade back with IND. I'd prefer their 2024 1st but would be completely content with just getting 1.4 and 2.35., but would likely start negotiations with both 1sts and Buckner (since they would have zero dead cap in trading him). I mean we all know you never give your real offer first. Lol. 

But rwalistically I'm not expecting a RG3 haul or anything monstrous. 

To be honest if AZ takes Anderson or Carter to replace the loss of Watt I might take the other at 4. But the Bears have so many needs I would still be more than happy to field offers. 

Let's say HOU takes Young, IND takes Levis or Stroud and AZ takes Carter. If SEA, LV, CAR or ATL love whoever wasn't drafted by IND or Richardson then I'm still looking at Anderson v Wilson and more picks. If it is SEA throwing another 2nd rounder I could still get Anderson and a 2nd. I'd take that in a crackhead heartbeat. 

I guess I'd likely try nickel and dime my way down rather tha go for a king'sransom. May be cowardly, IDK but whatever. Lol. I'm a big fan of Fields but haven't even thought of committing a big deal towards him. If he isn't the guy I would REALLY like to have 2024 ammo to move up for the top two guys or if he is the guy to grab a few top prospects there. 

[tyler735]

19 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Or Ohio State with Dwayne Haskins over Joe Burrow.

Even Jalen Hurts is proving that something was off with his development coaching at Alabama.

Yeah if you look at the past 3 Super Bowl matchups, pretty much every QB playing in them had some situations arise early in their college careers:

Mahomes vs Hurts

Stafford vs Burrow

Brady vs Mahomes

Basically Stafford was the only QB of the 5 QB's to start in the last 3 Super Bowls that was a clear cut starter his entire college career.

 

[BetterCallSaul]

27 minutes ago, Trojan said:

It is on PFF they have McKee as prospect #28

I like McKee. I think he's gonna be a solid starter in the league, maybe more. Nothing wrong with his abilities aside from athleticism. His team was atrocious.

[Ragnarok]

11 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

Yeah if you look at the past 3 Super Bowl matchups, pretty much every QB playing in them had some situations arise early in their college careers:

Mahomes vs Hurts

Stafford vs Burrow

Brady vs Mahomes

Basically Stafford was the only QB of the 5 QB's to start in the last 3 Super Bowls that was a clear cut starter his entire college career.

 

It could also be as a simple as some guys mentally developing a little later and not being ready at 19.

[BobbyPhil1781]

Will Levis is a bust.... confirmed
 

 

[MWil23]

Just now, BobbyPhil1781 said:

Will Levis is a bust.... confirmed
 

 

I mean, I stopped believing that when I saw Mahomes drown his steak in ketchup, but yeah that's bad.

[tyler735]

41 minutes ago, Ragnarok said:

It could also be as a simple as some guys mentally developing a little later and not being ready at 19.

It could be a lot of things, but really it just highlights how silly the initial point is to "penalize" a guy like Anthony Richardson for not starting over Emory Jones when there is such a significant history of successful NFL QB's running into similar situations while in college. 

[CWood21]

46 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

So first, Carter's legal deal might throw a huge wrench in things potentially but I'm going to ignore that since I'm not sure what all is going on or going to happen. Not making light of whatever he might be guilty of, just don't know and there's going to be a lot of happenings in the next few weeks for it. So I'll speak as if everything gets cleared. 

This whole discussion is based off of the concept that his draft stock isn't drastically affected by this.  That'd be a material change.  Personally, I'm expecting something along the lines of him pleading down to making misleading statements and he's going to be fined and do some community service.

46 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

If it was MY choice I'd take smaller trade backs with HOU and IND. Trading 1.1 to HOU for 1.2 and either their 2nd this year or first next year would seal the deal for me immediately. By draftek's chart they 'lose' about 200 points if they keep the trade all in 2023 but for a QB of your choice that is literally a joke. Especially if you can draft potentially a top 5 pick next year still.

I'd put the future FRP as an almost impossible (<1%) chance it's on the table from the Texans.  I'd still put their SRP as as very unlikely (5%).  Trading a future FRP to move up one spot to select a QB that isn't a Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck-level of QB prospects would be an astronomical price tag to pay.  I think the only way they dangle their SRP this year is if they were in a desperation level to ensure their QB, and that doesn't seem likely.  Feels like #2, 3rd round pick plus a '24 SRP seems like the most likely trade package IMO.  And that's IF Houston feels pressure to move up the board.  I'm not super high on Stroud or Young, but that doesn't mean Houston doesn't.

50 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

Second I'd try to trade back with IND. I'd prefer their 2024 1st but would be completely content with just getting 1.4 and 2.35., but would likely start negotiations with both 1sts and Buckner (since they would have zero dead cap in trading him). I mean we all know you never give your real offer first. Lol. 

The Colts are laughing you off the phone if you come up asking for 2 FRPs and Buckner for that #2 pick.  Hell, I'm not even sure that 2 FRPs would even be on the table for that #2 pick (assuming the Bears traded down with Houston).  You can bet that Indianapolis is going to leverage the belief that Chicago isn't going to be willing to move past a range that guarantees that Chicago can select either Jalen Carter or Will Anderson.  There's no way that Indianapolis is willing to deal their SRP this year and a FRP next year for #2 (or even #1 for that matter) IMO.  I think Chicago is going to have their choice of either the Colts' SRP this year (#35) or their '24 FRP.  And I think that pick dictates what is added to that package.  If they chose the SRP this year, I think next year's SRP is added to the deal.  If they choose the FRP next year, I think the Bears would get a 3rd this year.  And that's assuming Indianapolis believes that Chicago is willing to bypass Anderson and/or Carter.

56 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

To be honest if AZ takes Anderson or Carter to replace the loss of Watt I might take the other at 4. But the Bears have so many needs I would still be more than happy to field offers. 

Let's say HOU takes Young, IND takes Levis or Stroud and AZ takes Carter. If SEA, LV, CAR or ATL love whoever wasn't drafted by IND or Richardson then I'm still looking at Anderson v Wilson and more picks. If it is SEA throwing another 2nd rounder I could still get Anderson and a 2nd. I'd take that in a crackhead heartbeat. 

Arizona is taking either Will Anderson or Jalen Carter.  I don't see how they don't walk away with one of the stud defenders.  And I'm still skeptical that Chicago is willing to bypass on the other one.

And that second part doesn't seem likely.  Since 2018, teams that take QBs inside the top 10 of the first round that didn't trade up before the draft take the QBs at their natural selection more often than not.  Tua and Herbert in 2020 and Daniel Jones in 2019.  I don't think that's a coincidence.  Teams aren't going to mortgage their futures on guys who they like, but don't love.  And if they love them, they're probably looking to move up to ensure they get them and would go up earlier to pick them.

And of course you'd take that, you move down from 1 to 5 manage to get Will Anderson plus add 3 more premium picks.  That's not realistic.  That's the EXACT same discussion I had with Lions' fans years ago when they were convinced they were going to get a ransom for the #3 pick, and still be able to get Jeffrey Okudah.