2023 draft prospects and college football talk.

[ripsean21]

4 hours ago, taylor made said:

Scott McCoughan also liked to drink at work. I think its fine to take Senior players in the later rounds like we have been doing but to focus our entire draft strategy on these players is not wise. That list of Senior Bowl players Lavar703 posted is nothing special.  There's a reason most of the first round is Junior class players. 

I’m not going to Judge Scott for the battles he fights. Sometimes pressures and demons get the best of us and I just pray he finds a healthy balance for himself. That said for the gifts that got him through his NFL career the guy had gifts and really learned and kept the pillars he learned from a really successful FO at team building. A lot of guys have breakout years early in their college careers and bolt to the NFL with high draft stock to maximize their value. But to come back and build off of that when everyone has tape on you and preps for you now that you’re a household name is a real thing. Experience is an under appreciated faucet to players games. We all know bust and hit rates are what they are and where you go matters most. But year after year seniors tend to have earlier success in the NFL than Juniors outside of the truely blue chip talents that have multiple years of top production at the college level. 
It speaks to the type of person you’re drafting. Resigning a player and loyalty/trust is a key element to team building. What good is drafting super talented guys who are just trying to do them? Team first guys stay in school because they trust the process. You’re more likely to resign a guy who mentally fits into a team first culture over a guy who’s just looking out for their best intrest at every turn. And I’m by no means saying a junior coming out isn’t team first because their personal situation and family life very much affect their choices. But the more and more I scout and go back and recheck my notes and review draft classes it’s very apparent to me outside of injury seniors do tend to resign a lot more with their drafted team then the junior guys.

[Thaiphoon]

6 hours ago, ripsean21 said:

I’m not going to Judge Scott for the battles he fights. Sometimes pressures and demons get the best of us and I just pray he finds a healthy balance for himself. That said for the gifts that got him through his NFL career the guy had gifts and really learned and kept the pillars he learned from a really successful FO at team building. A lot of guys have breakout years early in their college careers and bolt to the NFL with high draft stock to maximize their value. But to come back and build off of that when everyone has tape on you and preps for you now that you’re a household name is a real thing. Experience is an under appreciated faucet to players games. We all know bust and hit rates are what they are and where you go matters most. But year after year seniors tend to have earlier success in the NFL than Juniors outside of the truely blue chip talents that have multiple years of top production at the college level. 
It speaks to the type of person you’re drafting. Resigning a player and loyalty/trust is a key element to team building. What good is drafting super talented guys who are just trying to do them? Team first guys stay in school because they trust the process. You’re more likely to resign a guy who mentally fits into a team first culture over a guy who’s just looking out for their best intrest at every turn. And I’m by no means saying a junior coming out isn’t team first because their personal situation and family life very much affect their choices. But the more and more I scout and go back and recheck my notes and review draft classes it’s very apparent to me outside of injury seniors do tend to resign a lot more with their drafted team then the junior guys.

I agree. If I'm drafting a guy (ESPECIALLY A QB (*)), I want a Senior rather than a Junior (**). Simply because we generally don't see too many QBs start as true freshmen and there's more starts, more games, more challenges and situations the player has been placed in and I can better gauge if the player is going to pan out or not. 

It's not 100%, because even with all that, you can still miss on players. But I want to see more than just a flash in the pan where some guy starts a few games his Sophomore year, then has a great Junior year and then declares for the draft and gets snatched up because "OMG, did you see the year he just had and the talents he possesses???"

That's how you end up crapping the bed and drafting Devin Thomas.

 

(*) Bill Parcells had specific criteria for drafting a QB. Obviously, you want to have the guy you draft fill as many of these as possible.

• Quote

   

  • Be a three-year starter
  • Be a senior in college
  • Graduate from college
  • Start 30 games
  • Win 23 games
  • Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio
  • Complete at least 60% of passes thrown

   

   

For me, the biggest ones are 3 year starter, the TD:INT ratio completion %, and the games started. And BTW Sam Howell fits 5/7 of these.

 

(**) Obviously if the Junior has played 3 years and is better than the Senior, you take the Junior. The point is to make sure you don't grab a player who has played fewer than 30 games in college and blew up one year.

[ARTMONK HOF]

👍👍👍

[ripsean21]

19 hours ago, Thaiphoon said:

I agree. If I'm drafting a guy (ESPECIALLY A QB (*)), I want a Senior rather than a Junior (**). Simply because we generally don't see too many QBs start as true freshmen and there's more starts, more games, more challenges and situations the player has been placed in and I can better gauge if the player is going to pan out or not. 

It's not 100%, because even with all that, you can still miss on players. But I want to see more than just a flash in the pan where some guy starts a few games his Sophomore year, then has a great Junior year and then declares for the draft and gets snatched up because "OMG, did you see the year he just had and the talents he possesses???"

That's how you end up crapping the bed and drafting Devin Thomas.

 

(*) Bill Parcells had specific criteria for drafting a QB. Obviously, you want to have the guy you draft fill as many of these as possible.

•  

For me, the biggest ones are 3 year starter, the TD:INT ratio completion %, and the games started. And BTW Sam Howell fits 5/7 of these.

 

(**) Obviously if the Junior has played 3 years and is better than the Senior, you take the Junior. The point is to make sure you don't grab a player who has played fewer than 30 games in college and blew up one year.

I believe in Sam. I know it’s unlikely for a 5th rounder to be anything more then a career backup but he’s one of the most skilled and toughest prospects I’ve seen make it too that round. And if nothing else maybe that’s all he ends up being. But the caveat is he unlike most attempts for this team at developing a guy will have real legit weapons to throw too. And if we improve the OL and this defense blossoms then with enough reps maybe his game improves and he grows into something better. Either way his skillset we got lucky in the 5th round. Maybe just maybe this team can look back at the Olave trade in three years and say you got a blue chip WR a franchise QB and a RB that can wear teams down throughout the season. If Turner grows and can show his training camp flashes and produce on the field next year it will look like a crazy trade going forward if Sam does fit.

[taylor made]

22 hours ago, Thaiphoon said:

I agree. If I'm drafting a guy (ESPECIALLY A QB (*)), I want a Senior rather than a Junior (**). Simply because we generally don't see too many QBs start as true freshmen and there's more starts, more games, more challenges and situations the player has been placed in and I can better gauge if the player is going to pan out or not. 

It's not 100%, because even with all that, you can still miss on players. But I want to see more than just a flash in the pan where some guy starts a few games his Sophomore year, then has a great Junior year and then declares for the draft and gets snatched up because "OMG, did you see the year he just had and the talents he possesses???"

That's how you end up crapping the bed and drafting Devin Thomas.

 

(*) Bill Parcells had specific criteria for drafting a QB. Obviously, you want to have the guy you draft fill as many of these as possible.

•  

For me, the biggest ones are 3 year starter, the TD:INT ratio completion %, and the games started. And BTW Sam Howell fits 5/7 of these.

 

(**) Obviously if the Junior has played 3 years and is better than the Senior, you take the Junior. The point is to make sure you don't grab a player who has played fewer than 30 games in college and blew up one year.

Most Juniors don't have one great season if they are selected in the first round. And that's what I'm referring to. First round players. According to my research, they are better overall players on average.  (Average Value taken from Pro Football Reference) I'm not sure if Seniors have earlier success and I haven't measured their first couple years like ripseason21 is claiming, but I have my doubts. Yes, you can name Devin Thomas but a second round player who plays a risky position to draft is no surprise that he busted. That's no reason to shy away from Junior players. 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2023 by taylor made

[ARTMONK HOF]

I would love 2 out of this OL group, maybe 3 if available.

Jaelyn Duncan  Maryland

John Michael Schmitz  Minn

Steve Avila  TCU

Broderick Jones  Ga

O’Cyrus Torrence  Florida

I would like 1 out of this LB group, maybe both if available. 
Jeremy Banks  Tenn

Dorian Williams  Tulane

I would like 1 out of this DB group or both  

Darius Rush  SC

Jaylon Jones  Texas A&M

 

Let’s replace Slye with Jake Moody K  MICH 

 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2023 by ARTMONK HOF

[lavar703]

I guess they spent a ton of time with Torrance at the senior bowl. With the big need on the interior of the OL plus their penchant for taking players from the Senior Bowl I’m going to guess he’s the pick. 

[Slappy Mc]

Let's go! Depth/potential starters all across the O-Line, a developmental QB, lb depth, Slye's replacement and some other depth. 

[aceinthehouse]

• 16

  
  C.J. Stroud

  QB | Ohio State
• 47

  
  Darnell Washington

  TE | Georgia
• 97

  
  Henry To'oto'o

  LB | Alabama
• 124

  
  Riley Moss

  CB | Iowa

  TRADE
• 193

  
  Nick Broeker

  OT | Mississippi
• 214

  
  Ricky Stromberg

  IOL | Arkansas

  TRADE
• 222

  
  Puka Nacua

  WR | BYU

  TRADE
• 235

  
  Jakorian Bennett

  CB | Maryland

[aceinthehouse]

Btw, I did that mock according to value on the board & need. ( For fun)

I want to clarify, that I'm a fan of Sam Howell getting a shot at starting & have no desire drafting a QB on day 1.

I do want to draft a QB, to keep the cost cheap at that position. But I'd prefer day 3 QB. A project.

Start Sam Howell

Sign cheap vet

Draft project QB on day 3

That's what I'm hoping we do. I also think it's the smart & correct action going into 23 season, while loading all other positions.

But the Washington way will probably be trading 3 1st round picks to Raiders for D. Carr.

Resigning Heinicke 

And trading Sam Howell to the Raiders in trade for Carr, as he goes on and becomes a Legendary Hall of Fame QB & surpasses Stabler, Plunkett, Gannon, Carr, etc.

I think Sam Howell might be special. Need to keep him & play him.

[Thaiphoon]

On 2/6/2023 at 9:54 PM, taylor made said:

Most Juniors don't have one great season if they are selected in the first round. And that's what I'm referring to. First round players. According to my research, they are better overall players on average.  (Average Value taken from Pro Football Reference) I'm not sure if Seniors have earlier success and I haven't measured their first couple years like ripseason21 is claiming, but I have my doubts. Yes, you can name Devin Thomas but a second round player who plays a risky position to draft is no surprise that he busted. That's no reason to shy away from Junior players. 

 

 

I'm not saying to ignore Juniors.

I'm saying that if I have two guys who are not too far apart talent-wise, I might take the guy that I might have as the slightly lesser athlete but who has produced good/great #s, for a longer period of time. 

Now, if the Junior is just jumping out of the screen at me with his talent then I might overlook his inexperience. But these are the guys who are going Top 5/Top 10 because their gifts are so much better that they can make the transition to the NFL with ease. And barring injury and a really bad Senior year, they would be Top 5/Top 10 the following year anyway.

But absent that? If the Junior is good/great but not a generational type of talent and only a year of starts? I'm knocking him for having a thin resume and taking a longer look at the Senior. 

Yes, Devin Thomas played WR (that position has the highest bust rate for Juniors), but was meant to be an example of only one year as a starter in college to judge a player, regardless of position. I'm sorry, that's wayyyy too short for me. I'd really like to see two years as a starter, at minimum, for everyone except those Top 5/Top 10 guys and even with those picks, I'd feel better pulling the trigger on a pick with more experience than just buying the pig in the poke and hoping those 13 games of tape on the player weren't his best work and he flames out.

So yeah, I think we're talking past each other here. As long as the Junior has at least two years starting (which you say most do in the 1st round - I haven't checked the last 20 years so I'll agree with you), then we're good. 

[e16bball]

On 2/7/2023 at 9:03 AM, lavar703 said:

I guess they spent a ton of time with Torrance at the senior bowl. With the big need on the interior of the OL plus their penchant for taking players from the Senior Bowl I’m going to guess he’s the pick. 

I’m fine with this, but for the love of God, can we please consider trading down a bit if we go this route? 

Torrence is a very solid player, but he’s definitely not Quenton Nelson — and he also doesn’t have the positional flex of guys like Kenyon Green and Zion Johnson (who both went right near 16 last year) or AVT the previous year. I actually like what I’ve seen of Torrence on film so far more than either of those guys, but he’s a pure guard and nothing else. You’ve got to be damn good to go that high as a pure guard, and I’m not that sold on him. 

Would feel much happier taking Torrence at something like pick 25. But given their recent draft history, taking a guy about 10-15 picks earlier than I’d like seems about right.

[e16bball]

My sense of where I see this draft heading is that I think the value for us at 16, given the players on board and our roster, may be at CB. But I also think the draft is very deep at CB, so I wouldn’t be overly thrilled taking CB3 when CB4-CB8 are probably pretty similar talents. 

At present, I don’t like taking an OT at 16. I’ve bought into Paris Johnson as OT1, largely based on his great intangibles to go with his impressive physical profile, but I think he’ll be gone. I think Peter Skoronski was the better college player, but he had too much trouble defending against length for me to feel comfortable with him as a surefire OT. There’s some Zach Martin/Brandon Scherff vibes there, so I would take him at 16 even if I felt he was likely a guard, but it sure looks like he’ll be gone too. I don’t like any other OT at 16 — not a big Broderick Jones fan, and no one else really stands out as a future LT to me, really. 

Where I do like the potential value at OT is at our 2nd rounder. Guys like Darnell Wright or Dawand Jones or Matthew Bergeron seem like potential long-term RTs, which could help fill two holes by kicking Cosmi inside. I’ve seen some mocks where Anton Harrison is still there, as honestly a potential future LT, but I’m a little skeptical of him dropping that far. 

I love the TEs in this draft, which I rarely do. Because of that depth, I think Mayer drops further than many expect, and if I was a gambling man, I’d say I think he’ll be there for us. Love the player, but don’t know if I’d pull the trigger on round one due to the depth and the relatively low positional value. Dalton Kincaid is very impressive to me as an athlete, though certainly not on Mayer’s level as a blocker at this point. Might take him at 47 over Mayer at 16. 

Anyway, the whole point is that (as always) it feels like we’re sort of out of range of any big blue-chippers at need positions, and I would really love to move down to get more cracks at it. Don’t see that happening, though. 

[lavar703]

Its quite the bummer seeing Tyjae Spears jump up so high on so many draft boards now. I was hoping he was someone we could get in the late third or mid 4th to compliment Robinson. He might end up in the second now. He's really climbing. 

[e16bball]

Here are some guys I think are being overrated at this point. That doesn’t mean that I don’t think they’re good, it just means I think the perception on them is a little high. 

▪️ Peter Skoronski: Right out of the box, a guy I like a lot. But there’s a difference between being able to play OT in college and doing it in the pros. We’ll see how the arms measure, but watching him against teams like OSU and PSU, I think they’re a problem. And I think he’s more OG than OT in the league. 

▪️ Broderick Jones: I genuinely think he’s getting forced up the board by the grave demand for OL, combined with the paltry supply in this draft. I see the athleticism, but I don’t see an overwhelming player. I think his window should be starting at our pick, but it sounds like consensus is he’ll be gone before we even get on the board. 

▪️ Bijan Robinson: Look, I love this guy. Think he’s a great back. But to be in top 10 consideration as a RB, I think you have to have it all, like a Saquon Barkley or an Adrian Peterson. For me, he just doesn’t have the big-time speed to be a truly generational RB prospect. 

▪️ Joey Porter, Jr.: I definitely buy into the idea that these legacy kids with pro athlete fathers tend to succeed more. And I like a lot about his game. But I always get concerned when I see college CBs who are very handsy and don’t have great ball skills. How does that combo translate to the NFL, with the tighter rules on contact?

▪️ Drew Sanders: I just don’t really…see it. I mean, he seems like a fine player, but why are there some folks out there talking about him as a top 20 pick? Maybe I’m being unfair and he’ll tear up the combine and emerge as a Parsons type weapon at LB, but I see a guy whose best skill is rushing the passer (but in a LB’s body, not an edge). 

▪️ Darnell Washington: Best blocking TE in the draft? I’d have to say so. He is a beast as a blocker, and he has some nice soft hands too. But are we really talking about a guy as a potential 1st rounder and maybe the top TE when his primary calling card is blocking? Unless he’s a good bit faster at the combine than he looks on tape, I can’t see considering him until mid-late 2nd.