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MNF: Rams @ 49ers


Manny/Patrick

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40 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Heading into this game, the Rams offense have faced 3 of the top 4 defenses in the league in DVOA.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2022/regular

SF RK1  -29.6%

BUF RK2  -28.9%

TB  RK4  -20.9%

 

 

See, it's tough to use stats like this this early in the season, though. Like, would Buffalo be 2nd in defensive DVOA had the Rams played a competent game against them? 4 games in, that means the Rams are 25% of the Bills ranking right now. Have the Bills and 49ers helped make LAR's offense look bad, or has LAR's bad offense helped make the Bills and 49ers look good?

Honestly, it's probably some of both. But a high end offense should still be able to get something going against even top defenses. There should absolutely be concerns about how they've looked so far. Top defenses tend to be most of what you have to go through at the end of the year.

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1 minute ago, Jakuvious said:

See, it's tough to use stats like this this early in the season, though. Like, would Buffalo be 2nd in defensive DVOA had the Rams played a competent game against them? 4 games in, that means the Rams are 25% of the Bills ranking right now. Have the Bills and 49ers helped make LAR's offense look bad, or has LAR's bad offense helped make the Bills and 49ers look good?

Honestly, it's probably some of both. But a high end offense should still be able to get something going against even top defenses. There should absolutely be concerns about how they've looked so far. Top defenses tend to be most of what you have to go through at the end of the year.

This is one of the reasons why early DVOA rankings in the season are always rated based on FOs preseason rankings until there is large enough sample size (i.e it used to be re-cacluated after 4 games when it was 16 game season--1/4 of the season).  Right now, it's based on 30% preseason expectations and 70% season performance. This will change after next week and revisions.

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1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

What are you talking about? It was 28-3 in the third quarter against the Falcons

My bad Jrry32.  Drunk! Got it backwards.  

You're offense still looks atrocious.  Please correct that next week vs Dallas.

Sincerely yours: Eagles Fans🍺

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14 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

My bad Jrry32.  Drunk! Got it backwards.  

You're offense still looks atrocious.  Please correct that next week vs Dallas.

Sincerely yours: Eagles Fans🍺

I expect a far better performance against Dallas, especially if David Edwards is back. 

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7 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

This is one of the reasons why early DVOA rankings in the season are always rated based on FOs preseason rankings until there is large enough sample size (i.e it used to be re-cacluated after 4 games when it was 16 game season--1/4 of the season).  Right now, it's based on 30% preseason expectations and 70% season performance. This will change after next week and revisions.

Weren't you the one who started this rant by saying that last year doesn't matter? So if anything, if it's including preseason expectations, isn't that even worse then?

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1 hour ago, Jakuvious said:

Weren't you the one who started this rant by saying that last year doesn't matter? So if anything, if it's including preseason expectations, isn't that even worse then?

For one, I wasn't ranting. Settle down.  For two, Preseason is not last year and only a small portion of it is factored in.

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