Week 5 TNF GDT: Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1) at Denver Broncos (2-2)

[Broncofan]

57 minutes ago, BigTrav said:

A by-product of the off-season hype they enjoy every single year

Denver had 2 prime time games in 2019, 3 in 2020 and 1 in 2021.     Every team gets 1 and it’s rare to not get 2 with the 3 prime time slots.   
 

They haven’t earned the exposure so far  this year at all but to suggest it’s an annual thing is some major faux persecution poor-us complex here.  

[BigTrav]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Denver had 2 prime time games in 2019, 3 in 2020 and 1 in 2021.     Every team gets 1 and it’s rare to not get 2 with the 3 prime time slots.   
 

They haven’t earned the exposure so far  this year at all but to suggest it’s an annual thing is some major faux persecution poor-us complex here.  

Last year they had plenty of hype too. A lot of top 10 buzz. Maybe it didn't translate to PT games but it certainly translated to people calling anyone who disagreed with their top 10 tag as HaTeRs. (Or "persecution poor-us complex"....strange thing to come up a KC fan with. We rule the division).

[Broncofan]

16 minutes ago, BigTrav said:

Last year they had plenty of hype too. A lot of top 10 buzz. Maybe it didn't translate to PT games but it certainly translated to people calling anyone who disagreed with their top 10 tag as HaTeRs. (Or "persecution poor-us complex"....strange thing to come up a KC fan with. We rule the division).

Top 10 last year?  With Drew Lock & TeddyB at the helm.    Man that's some pretty revisionist history.    Par for the course.

Edited October 6, 2022 by Broncofan

[BroncoSojia]

25 minutes ago, BigTrav said:

Last year they had plenty of hype too. A lot of top 10 buzz. Maybe it didn't translate to PT games but it certainly translated to people calling anyone who disagreed with their top 10 tag as HaTeRs. (Or "persecution poor-us complex"....strange thing to come up a KC fan with. We rule the division).

No one had us the top ten last year, dude. We were picked by most to finish at around 7 wins, which is what we landed on. 

[Broncofan]

Anyways, back to the game.

With the final injury reports in, the paths to victory for both teams:

IND

-Control the ToP.   DEN's HFA has always been about wearing teams down in the 2H as the altitude gets to them.  But that only works if the DEN O can stay on the field, and the D doesn't get gassed.  We've had a sub-500 record from 2018-2021 because the O's sucked, and the opposition got to wear out our D (which also didn't generate negative plays or TO's) The IND run game, even without Jonathan Taylor, is the best way to do that against our EDGE-depleted DL (setting the edge in run D and our ILB's).

-In the pass game, the RB's and TE's can exploit our ILB's.   I've got massive Mo-Alie Cox yardage props because of said matchups.    If it's 3rd and short, it's manageable.    If it's 3rd and long, much bigger problems.   Matt Ryan vs. pressure has been tough to watch.   

-On D, see if the right side of the OL can be exploited for DEN.   RG Quinn Meinerz is out, and RT Billy Turner has yet to start, and our original swing T, Calvin Anderson, can't unseat Cameron Fleming, who's simply not a starter at the NFL level.  If Turner plays, that's a huge lift for DEN - but if not, Kwitty Paye and Yannick Ngakoue (plus DeForest Buckner) can make life miserable for Russell Wilson and collapse the run game by exploiting our right side of our OL.

-Game management-wise, Frank Reich hasn't been great.   But he's still very capable of calling a better game than Nathaniel Hackett....simply because until Hackett shows he can do it for 60 minutes, you can't assume it yet.    

-As always, win the TO game, more likely to win the game.  

DEN

-Stop the run.   It's that simple.    Do that, and everything else falls in place; the pass D is smothering on the WR's, and the pass rush can work on making life very uncomfortable for Matt Ryan.   That was the blueprint for LV, but they didn't stop the run (the O didn't stay on the field either, but it's fair to say it's a shared L on both fronts).

-The D wants to attack the ball with Matt Ryan in the pocket.   A big change from Fangio's D in his era was they focused on limiting yards; Evero's philosophy is to attack the ball (which creates a trade off in allowing more yards per play, while the D goes after the ball - it's a point of emphasis both in offseason and weekly practice).   I MUCH prefer this philosophy, because TO's are such game changers.   That would be awesome this week.  That same D that created 5 fumbles in the first 3 games, tremendous opp to do so here with Matt Ryan and a struggling underperforming OL.     The issue is our EDGE's are decimated after last week.   With Randy Gregory and backup Jonathan Cooper both out, EDGE's Baron Browning and rookie Nik Bonnito have to be decent in the run, but also help get pressure.   EDGE Bradley Chubb has always had the moniker of being a Robin-type player - he gets to be the Batman tonight with Gregory out, year-2 ACL he's got all his full athletic skills back, it's his time the next 4 games to show if he really deserves a big payday after this year. 

-Let.  Russ.  Cook.    With no Javonte Williams, we have to be aggressive in the pass game.   Russ was 11-12-143-2 in the 1H - and Hackett let off the gas, and decided establishing the run with Mike Boone was the way to go in the 3Q/early 4Q.   He simply CANNOT do that with the IND run D.  Even with no Shaq Leonard, they are the 7th D in rush yards - and having trailed by 14+ points by halftime or mid-3Q in 3 of 4 games, that stat is even more impressive.

-Courtland Sutton & Jerry Jeudy both need 8-10 targets minimum.    The TE's can get some as well with S Justin Blackmon out, but make no mistake - this shouldn't be a dink-and-dunk to the flats type game.   The IND pass D's depressed yardage numbers are a major product of their zone D, but also because of those 3 games out 4 where the O let off the gas.    JAX was 25/30 in the pass game,  TEN was 17/21 - the pass is how you set up the run here, not the other way around.   Nathaniel Hackett would prove to everyone he's brain injured if he calls for a run-based game plan tonight.

-ST's have been great the past 2 games, with Waitman's hang time and positional punting justifying the move away from veteran.    ST returner and WR4-5 Montrell Washington is an absolute weapon in the return game, averaging 15+ yards a return last week.     Stop the O, get a chance for him to make a play.

Overall, DEN has a couple more paths to victory,  but it's a 3-4 pt spread for a reason.   Nothing's a given.   It's a must-win for both teams, still disappointed we're not going to see Shaq Leonard & J-Taylor for IND, while we'll very much miss Randy Gregory, Justin Simmons (hopefully back next week, hurts that PJ Locke is out) & Javonte Williams.   

But with injury, it's also a chance for opportunity - on the DEN side, names like Caden Sterns (in for Simmons),  Browning & Bonnito (for Gregory), and Billy Turner (if he plays), could be big role players.     IND may turn back the clock with Philip Lindsay (not yet activated off the PS) to complement Hines and keep Hines in the pass-catching role.   If not, it's rookie Deon Jackson, who showed some preseason burst (but obv was stuck in RB purgatory behind J-Taylor & Hines as a GDI).   And while Alie-Cox gets the majority of snaps, TE's Kylen Granson & rookie Jelani Woods may get some action, while Alec Pierce draws the much easier matchup with CB Ronald Darby, instead of Pittman vs. PS2 island.     The WR3 ppl recognize name-wise is Parris Campbell, but TBH IMO both Pierce & Ashton Dulin have played better (after brutal Week 1 TD drops) - something to watch for.

Edited October 6, 2022 by Broncofan

[Wyld Stallyns]

Colts are elevating Phillip Lindsay from the practice squad for tonight’s game. Revenge Game? 

And I hope this doesn’t mean the Colts use him as an excuse to not use Nyheim Hines like they should. 

[The BILLievers]

12 minutes ago, Wyld Stallyns said:

Colts are elevating Phillip Lindsay from the practice squad for tonight’s game. Revenge Game? 

And I hope this doesn’t mean the Colts use him as an excuse to not use Nyheim Hines like they should. 

Saw that. Was very excited to start Hines tonight in a .5 PPR league hoping for 10+ rushes with 5+ receptions.. Think that's still a possibility? 

[agarcia34]

Expect a better Colts offense with Taylor not playing. Sounds crazy but the best their offense looked was when they were playing behind against the Titans. More passing will be good for this team. Instead of forcing the run with Taylor and getting nothing out of it. 

[Broncofan]

57 minutes ago, Wyld Stallyns said:

Colts are elevating Phillip Lindsay from the practice squad for tonight’s game. Revenge Game? 

And I hope this doesn’t mean the Colts use him as an excuse to not use Nyheim Hines like they should. 

 

44 minutes ago, The BILLievers said:

Saw that. Was very excited to start Hines tonight in a .5 PPR league hoping for 10+ rushes with 5+ receptions.. Think that's still a possibility? 

If anything it improves Hines chances to stay in a pass catching role.   Wearing him out as a 2-down runner was the risk.   He’ll still run some but should keep him fresh enough to be used a threat in space. 

[Wyld Stallyns]

38 minutes ago, The BILLievers said:

Saw that. Was very excited to start Hines tonight in a .5 PPR league hoping for 10+ rushes with 5+ receptions.. Think that's still a possibility? 

My concern is that Lindsay is more similar to Taylor then to Hines which is why we didn’t keep him on the roster. So if you're planning your offensive game plan you stick with the guy more similar to what you’re used to. But Ballard paid Hines $6 million a year, and Reich said before the season that he would have Hines on his fantasy team if he played and has not used him much at all.

So I don’t know what to tell you because they tell us one thing and do the exact opposite. 

[Warhorse]

Colts oline has yet to play as a unit. All Denver needs to do bring the pressure from a different place every play. Until they figure that out, NFL D's will continue to pick at that scab. 

[Blackstar12]

It would be such a Colts thing to be 2-0 against the AFCW but 0-2 against the AFCS lol.

[RaidersAreOne]

 

[ThatJerkDave]

For the poll, can I vote, "Oh yes! More Nathaniel Hackett?"

 

[BullsandBroncos]

Nathaniel Hackett is going to make the Colts defense look like the 85 bears.