Mizter_Clean10 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 This is a text book example of sunk-cost fallacy. The Broncos are doubling down on their bad investment into Russ instead of accepting the loss and trying to “move on” like I get they’re stuck with Russ but to losing more draft picks to try him fix him is rough. 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dbrog24 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 If Payton also manages to bring in Vic Fangio for his DC (rumors about this despite his contract with Miami) it will be awkward and horrible on so many levels. It would essentially add 2 thirds to this trade for Payton (because Evero would net Broncos comp picks next year)...something to think about. It also brings a dude back in the building who majority broncos fans and players flat out don't like. It also completely NEUTERS GM George Paton...could you imagine your boss bringing back a dude that YOU fired AND taking away more of your ability to showcase what you are elite at (draft) 😄. All this with Wilson already losing part of the locker room. I don't see how they wouldn't burn up like a supernova Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronjon1990 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 12 minutes ago, Mizter_Clean10 said: This is a text book example of sunk-cost fallacy. The Broncos are doubling down on their bad investment into Russ instead of accepting the loss and trying to “move on” like I get they’re stuck with Russ but to losing more draft picks to try him fix him is rough. Russell Wilson and his cost:performance ratio makes everything Sam Bradford transaction look like a steal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UncleAdamz Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Glad the Cardinals didn’t make the move at this price tbh, still plenty of candidates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 52 minutes ago, sdrawkcab321 said: I don’t understand how a proven perennial playoff HC who’s one of the best offensive minds in the game was a second choice behind a DC The pick capital matters. In a vacuum, Payton probably was right there with Harbaugh, but pick capital matters a ton here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calamity_Cometh Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Grin and bear it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 (edited) In a vacuum, nothing wrong with hiring Sean Payton. He's a great O mind, and he's got enough status on his own to make it clear Russell Wilson has to change, and not be all about the "Let's Ride" and image he's tried (and failed to cultivate). Hackett was a total disaster as HC/OC, but he also let Wilson be the alpha when his play didn't earn it. Payton has more than enough status here to be the guy to hold Wilson accountable. That's important. If Payton is willing to keep Evero as DC this year - then the other benefit is we get 2 end-of-3rd's in 2025, should Evero get a new gig that's a promotion (either HC or DC with AC title). That's unknown, but that would be a massive keep. Finally, with Payton as HC - you don't have to worry about losing your top OC mind to another team. As long as Payton's around, the O is taken care of. Those are all the positives...but the 1st benefit unfortunately isn't in a vacuum. So, the problems are 3-fold IMO: 1. The pick cost. The ONLY way you can pay a 1st and justify it is if you win a SB (duh), or if Payton brings about success and stability for such a long run, it re-establishes the DEN franchise as a serious contender and player. Winning SB's is hard, but if he were our HC until 2030, and we were in playoffs for 4-5 of those years, and was around to coach up the next QB...OK, all good. But if he's only around for a few years, and it doesn't work - UGH. That brings us to... 2. There's nothing to say Payton won't leave if things get sticky, like he did with NO. If Russell doesn't work out, what says that Payton won't just get up and "retire" in 2 or 3 years, and won't stick around to coach the next QB? THAT would be a massive fail. Again, he doesn't necessarily have to win a SB, if he's around to turn around Russ AND he's around for our next QB to develop him, then all good. But we have to recognize Payton decided he wasn't willing to stick around for NO once things got really tough. 3. Finally, we should also recognize Payton's scheme in its Brees form isn't a good fit for Wilson on his own. It's going to have to be modified to Wilson's abilities, and his weaknesses - being a pure drop-back, read the short- middle throw isn't Wilson at all. Again, Payton is a smart guy, top 5 O mind in terms of scheme and design - but he has to pass on the temptation to mold Wilson into Brees V2. This isn't to say he'll fall into this trap, but more than Wilson isn't an automatic fit for Payton's OG scheme. All in all, if there wasn't a pick swap, no worries, all good. But the pick swap matters. My first choice was Harbaugh by a mile because of it. But, what's done is done. For 2023, without that 1st - the real Q is how does DEN address OL - IMO they have 2 spots they can feel good about - LT / Bolles & G Meinerz. It would help a TON if Paton & ownership convinced Payton in re-hiring OL coach Mike Munchak - he only wants to coach in DEN with grandkids in COL, it was crazy Hackett let him go - and keep Evero. Munchak's wizadry at getting the most out of OL would be sorely needed this offseason (maybe he can fix Lloyd Cushenberry & the other rookies/2nd-year guys). GM Paton did a great job of building up the roster and then screwed the pooch with HC Hackett hire, and the Wilson trade (to be fair to him, it's a deal 99+ percent of execs/pundits <save SEA FO/fangs and a small group of DEN fans> were behind). He's going to have to find magic in Day 2-3 and FA to upgrade the OL. That's the other major weakness on O, that losing the 2023 1st hurts a ton on. Time will tell how that works out. Edited February 1, 2023 by Broncofan 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 2 hours ago, Ray Reed said: I mean…what if they/Russ suck again next year and he just retires again lol? They still gave up a 1st and 2nd for one year of Payton? ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.Buzz Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 hour ago, sdrawkcab321 said: I don’t understand how a proven perennial playoff HC who’s one of the best offensive minds in the game was a second choice behind a DC Payton won 1 SB in ‘09 then made it past the divisional round once with Drew Brees at QB. Hes a good offensive mind but I think he’s wildly overrated at this point. Not to mention if Russ doesn’t get back on track they are missing a ton of draft capital to get out of the abyss if he does continue to fade off. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 hour ago, RaidersAreOne said: Have always said this guy is a fraud but people on here constantly bow to the guy just because he used to post here. He throws out obvious links to draft/FA and hot names every year that are already being discussed in the media but he just says it sternly like he has inside info about it lol 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrry32 Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, Abe56 said: Projected compensation Woof. Just hire somebody from the McVay tree and avoid the trade. Edited February 1, 2023 by jrry32 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaidersAreOne Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 20 minutes ago, Ray Reed said: Have always said this guy is a fraud but people on here constantly bow to the guy just because he used to post here. He throws out obvious links to draft/FA and hot names every year that are already being discussed in the media but he just says it sternly like he has inside info about it lol Allbright posted here? Was that legitimately Billy Spikes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tyler735 Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Dome said: I’m very interested to see how Payton’s offense adapts for Wilson. Payton coached special teams rushing tight end Taysom Hill to a 7-1 record when he filled in for injuries over two seasons… he can win games with even a broken Russ, but it’s not gonna be a Drew Brees offense I’d take it even further than that. Taysom Hill: 7-1 Teddy Bridgewater: 5-1 (statistically best performance of his career under Payton) Jameis Winston: 5-2 (statistically best performance of his career under Payton) In other words, he is 17-4 with the aforementioned QB’s during his tenure with the Saints. All 3 QB’s had much different skill sets yet all 3 thrived under Payton. He’s shown he can evolve and adapt his offense as needed over the years. I think the Broncos made the right move given how invested (stuck) they are with Wilson for at least the next few years. Of the coaches available, I don’t think there is another coach out there that would give the Broncos the better odds to get Wilson back on track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 minute ago, RaidersAreOne said: Allbright posted here? Was that legitimately Billy Spikes? He was reality_check Dov is billy spikes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 22 minutes ago, Ray Reed said: Have always said this guy is a fraud but people on here constantly bow to the guy just because he used to post here. He throws out obvious links to draft/FA and hot names every year that are already being discussed in the media but he just says it sternly like he has inside info about it lol He's not a fraud, he's just not an insider. I've seen him get stuff right, and i've seen him get stuff waaaaaaaaaaaaaay wrong. He clearly has the digits of some people around the league, though I'm not sure he has the digits to important decision making people. I think he often gets his info in a "friend of a friend" way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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