Playoff rankings

[BobbyPhil1781]

7 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

FSU is gonna get sacrificed to Georgia or UM in R1 when they win Saturday.

I'm not sure it'll be easy for FSU. Louisville has a nice defense and it could cause problems for FSU's inexperienced QB.  They definitely didn't look that good against a bad Florida team. 

[CWood21]

15 hours ago, seminoles1 said:

Does Ohio State stay ahead of FSU?

Louisville losing to Kentucky did not help FSU's chances of making the top 4.

It wouldn't surprise me if the committee did.  I think they've been sour on Florida State from the beginning, and the Jordan Travis injury pretty much gives the committee a built in reason to leave them out.

[CWood21]

6 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Is anyone a lock right now?

I think both Georgia and Michigan are locks.  Even if they do lose to Alabama or Iowa respectively, I think their entire body of work is going to keep them in.  The winner of Washington/Oregon likely gets in no matter what.  So that leaves the 4th spot open for one of Florida State, Ohio State, or Texas.  If Florida State wins, they're in as #4.  If Florida State loses, the committee is likely going to have a tough decision.  And my money is on Ohio State unless Texas is downright dominate against Oklahoma State.  Going to exclude any scenarios in which Texas loses, because they're out if they lose.  I don't see any scenario in which Texas loses and still makes the playoffs.  At this point, I think Florida State is in as the #4 seed if they win.  The winner of Washington/Oregon gets the #3 seed even if Florida State ends up winning.  I think the only odd scenarios involved Georgia or Michigan losing.

Georgia Loses
1.) Michigan
2.) Oregon/Washington
3.) Florida State
4.) Georgia

Michigan Loses
1.) Georgia
2.) Oregon/Washington
3.) Michigan
4.) Florida State

For Alabama, they NEED Texas to lose and obviously beat Georgia.  And they probably need Florida State to lose as well.  I just can't envision a scenario in which the committee wants the precedence of a 0-loss conference champion being left out in favor of a 1-loss conference champion from a P5 conference.

[RuskieTitan]

16 hours ago, seminoles1 said:

Does Ohio State stay ahead of FSU?

Louisville losing to Kentucky did not help FSU's chances of making the top 4.

Can't see why they would. They were unimpressive vs Michigan (Not to mention losing the game), and were 1 play away from losing to a sadder Notre Dame team. Even a limp FSU team should be ahead.

[MWil23]

16 hours ago, seminoles1 said:

Does Ohio State stay ahead of FSU

Are they better without Travis? Absolutely.

Should they? Absolutely not, FSU is undefeated.

What you do on the field should matter in the win and loss column.

[seminoles1]

Just now, MWil23 said:

Are they better without Travis? Absolutely.

Should they? Absolutely not, FSU is undefeated.

What you do on the field should matter in the win and loss column.

Yeah, it'd feel weird to punish the rest of the roster and not give them a playoff spot because Travis got injured.

Assuming they beat Louisville, which is no guarantee.

[MWil23]

1 minute ago, seminoles1 said:

Yeah, it'd feel weird to punish the rest of the roster and not give them a playoff spot because Travis got injured.

Assuming they beat Louisville, which is no guarantee.

I just realized their only good win this year is vs LSU. Regardless, yeah I agree.

[Longhorns90]

20 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I think both Georgia and Michigan are locks.  Even if they do lose to Alabama or Iowa respectively, I think their entire body of work is going to keep them in.  The winner of Washington/Oregon likely gets in no matter what.  So that leaves the 4th spot open for one of Florida State, Ohio State, or Texas.  If Florida State wins, they're in as #4.  If Florida State loses, the committee is likely going to have a tough decision.  And my money is on Ohio State unless Texas is downright dominate against Oklahoma State.  Going to exclude any scenarios in which Texas loses, because they're out if they lose.  I don't see any scenario in which Texas loses and still makes the playoffs.  At this point, I think Florida State is in as the #4 seed if they win.  The winner of Washington/Oregon gets the #3 seed even if Florida State ends up winning.  I think the only odd scenarios involved Georgia or Michigan losing.

Georgia Loses
1.) Michigan
2.) Oregon/Washington
3.) Florida State
4.) Georgia

Michigan Loses
1.) Georgia
2.) Oregon/Washington
3.) Michigan
4.) Florida State

For Alabama, they NEED Texas to lose and obviously beat Georgia.  And they probably need Florida State to lose as well.  I just can't envision a scenario in which the committee wants the precedence of a 0-loss conference champion being left out in favor of a 1-loss conference champion from a P5 conference.

You really think that a Georgia that lost to Alabama (that itself lost to Texas) stays above both? Yes, wins over Missouri/Ole Miss/Tennessee are solid, but Alabama matches those Ole Miss and Tennessee wins, has an LSU win (which themselves beat Missouri) and would have the head to head. I don't think they can stay above Alabama just on resume alone. And that's not even bringing in the Alabama/Texas fight into the matchup. They have a lot of benefit of the doubt because back-to-back national championships, but we're not determining the best team of the last three years - we're determining the best team of THIS year.

Same thing with Michigan - their out of conference is utterly laughable and so their strength of schedule is entirely held up by Penn State and Ohio State - whose resumes are basically Iowa and Notre Dame respectively. Texas is basically the reverse - held back by a lack of a marquee Big 12 win - Kansas, Kansas State and (in this scenario) Oklahoma State are all solid but not spectacular teams that aren't going to wow people, but their out of conference has a huge win in Tuscaloosa. But Texas in the scenario is the conference champion w/ a neutral-site loss to Oklahoma, vs. Michigan w/o a championship and a neutral-site loss to Iowa. I think Texas wins that comparison.

I think people have to disassociate this year from past years where a certain margin of error existed. The top of the rankings this year is absurdly tight - the top 8 have 4 losses combined - none of which comes from a team lower than the top 15, something that's unprecedented in the playoff era. I think it's win your conference or bust, unless you luck out and someone else fumbles their chance too.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

3 hours ago, MWil23 said:

They have a better win with a chance to “avenge their loss and win a conference”, which usually means the committee gives them the edge. I have no qualms there.

The PAC winner is a lock.

UM is a lock unless they lay the biggest egg ever next week and even then they still probably get the TCU treatment and back in.

OSU needs FSU, UGA, and OU all to win next weekend to even have a chance.

Wouldnt OSU need FSU to lose? Louisville just lost this week so even beating FSU, they arent making it

[MWil23]

Just now, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Wouldnt OSU need FSU to lose? Louisville just lost this week so even beating FSU, they arent making it

Yeah i mistyped. They need Bama, FSU, and Texas all to lose

[JaguarCrazy2832]

3 hours ago, beekay414 said:

Texas plays Poke

 ?

[JaguarCrazy2832]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

It wouldn't surprise me if the committee did.  I think they've been sour on Florida State from the beginning, and the Jordan Travis injury pretty much gives the committee a built in reason to leave them out.

Yea thats what im afraid of for FSUs sake

[JaguarCrazy2832]

I love the playoff format so much and this conversation is so much fun to me…its so much better than the BCS format

[Malfatron]

5 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I love the playoff format so much and this conversation is so much fun to me…its so much better than the BCS format

Nfl should adopt the playoff committee

[CWood21]

5 hours ago, Longhorns90 said:

You really think that a Georgia that lost to Alabama (that itself lost to Texas) stays above both? Yes, wins over Missouri/Ole Miss/Tennessee are solid, but Alabama matches those Ole Miss and Tennessee wins, has an LSU win (which themselves beat Missouri) and would have the head to head. I don't think they can stay above Alabama just on resume alone. And that's not even bringing in the Alabama/Texas fight into the matchup. They have a lot of benefit of the doubt because back-to-back national championships, but we're not determining the best team of the last three years - we're determining the best team of THIS year.

Yes.  At this point, I think Alabama has too much ground to make up.  And I don't think their struggles against Auburn helps their argument.  Unless Alabama manhandles Georgia, I think Georgia is safely in it.  And quite frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Florida State got kicked out of the playoffs if Alabama ended up winning.  Not saying it's right, but the committee has to weigh how good/bad this Florida State team is without Jordan Travis.

As the committee has shown in the past, they're generally more focused on later in the season and H2H wins early in the season weigh less than later in the year.  Does anyone truly believe that the Alabama team that faced Texas early in the year is the same team that finished this season?

At this point, all but 5 teams (Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Florida State, Sand Liberty) have 0 losses.  Liberty obviously won't be included, but how does 1 loss for any of those teams (outside of Florida State) really haunt them?  Does a loss for Georgia or Michigan put them below any of the other 1-loss teams?  They've consistently been top 3 teams the entire year.  They're staying in the playoff mix.

6 hours ago, Longhorns90 said:

Same thing with Michigan - their out of conference is utterly laughable and so their strength of schedule is entirely held up by Penn State and Ohio State - whose resumes are basically Iowa and Notre Dame respectively. Texas is basically the reverse - held back by a lack of a marquee Big 12 win - Kansas, Kansas State and (in this scenario) Oklahoma State are all solid but not spectacular teams that aren't going to wow people, but their out of conference has a huge win in Tuscaloosa. But Texas in the scenario is the conference champion w/ a neutral-site loss to Oklahoma, vs. Michigan w/o a championship and a neutral-site loss to Iowa. I think Texas wins that comparison.

Michigan and Texas pretty much have similar resumes if we assume that Michigan loses to Iowa.  Both have 1 big win (Alabama for Texas, Ohio State for Michigan).  Michigan's win over Penn State trumps Texas' 2nd best win (Kansas).  And when you compare losses, I'd argue that Texas' loss to Oklahoma is probably valued similarly if Michigan loses to Iowa.  But I think that's where the Big 12 in a "down" year really hurts Texas.  The Big 10 has 3 teams inside the top 10.  The Big 12 has 1.

6 hours ago, Longhorns90 said:

I think people have to disassociate this year from past years where a certain margin of error existed. The top of the rankings this year is absurdly tight - the top 8 have 4 losses combined - none of which comes from a team lower than the top 15, something that's unprecedented in the playoff era. I think it's win your conference or bust, unless you luck out and someone else fumbles their chance too.

The problem is the committees already shown in the past that winning a conference championship isn't a requirement.  If that were the case, then we wouldn't have seen the 2021 Bulldogs make the playoffs after losing to Alabama.

At this point, I think Texas needs to be ahead of Ohio State tomorrow night.  If they're after Ohio State, I'd put it at 1% chance of them making the playoffs.