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2024 WR Talk


nicfre2011

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On 1/25/2024 at 9:20 AM, Chiefer said:

Sometimes guys fall through the cracks. That’s what makes Day 3 so exciting. To me it’s a failure in scouting when good players go late moreso than luck. 

But every once in a while you get a Nacua or a Pacheco and all that scouting was worth it when you see how good they become. 

 

I think you're still kinda missing the point here.  Nacua going Day 3 is...a huge scouting failure.  That's not a vindication of, "all that scouting was worth it".  It's...just, everybody whiffed on the evaluation, including the team that ultimately scooped him up Day 3.

If that team had any real clue that he was going to be nearly that good, they'd have been racing to make him a much earlier pick.  The Rams picked SEVEN other players before they finally thought Pua was the best "value".  😆  They clearly didn't have a clue what they were getting there.

 

That's what most Day 3 hidden gems and "steals" are.  A big dash of luck and a lot of collective scouting failure across the league.  Where maybe some particular scout is thrown a bone and are just banging the table for a guy because they "see something" there.  But the scouting and management as a whole haven't evaluated that player as "worth" a Day 1/2 pick.  And the reality of scouting is...that particular scout has probably also been certain that they "saw something special" in a whole bunch of chumps who washed out of the league before they even finished their rookie contracts.

 

The real "scouting wins" are when you have those "wtf?" picks on Day 1 or 2 that the consensus had going much much later, that a team has the conviction to go up and "overdraft" completely off script.  Get raked over the coals through the whole post-draft post mortem for months...until that player hits the field and suddenly explodes into a star.  Then everyone scrambles to revise history and posture as though it was somehow an obvious thing that this guy was going to be a stud because of this or that, retroactively.  lol.

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7 hours ago, Tugboat said:

 

I think you're still kinda missing the point here.  Nacua going Day 3 is...a huge scouting failure.  That's not a vindication of, "all that scouting was worth it".  It's...just, everybody whiffed on the evaluation, including the team that ultimately scooped him up Day 3.

If that team had any real clue that he was going to be nearly that good, they'd have been racing to make him a much earlier pick.  The Rams picked SEVEN other players before they finally thought Pua was the best "value".  😆  They clearly didn't have a clue what they were getting there.

 

That's what most Day 3 hidden gems and "steals" are.  A big dash of luck and a lot of collective scouting failure across the league.  Where maybe some particular scout is thrown a bone and are just banging the table for a guy because they "see something" there.  But the scouting and management as a whole haven't evaluated that player as "worth" a Day 1/2 pick.  And the reality of scouting is...that particular scout has probably also been certain that they "saw something special" in a whole bunch of chumps who washed out of the league before they even finished their rookie contracts.

 

The real "scouting wins" are when you have those "wtf?" picks on Day 1 or 2 that the consensus had going much much later, that a team has the conviction to go up and "overdraft" completely off script.  Get raked over the coals through the whole post-draft post mortem for months...until that player hits the field and suddenly explodes into a star.  Then everyone scrambles to revise history and posture as though it was somehow an obvious thing that this guy was going to be a stud because of this or that, retroactively.  lol.

I mean I said it was a scouting failure that guys fall late, said it right from the beginning…😂

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29 minutes ago, redsoxsuck05 said:

Sometimes teams value a guy as a higher pick but know they can afford to wait a couple rounds.

Famous example of this was the legendary 1974 Steelers draft. Steelers had John Stallworth ranked ahead of Lynn Swann, and Jack Lambert but knew that you had to take Swann in the 1st because of his UsC pedigree. Since Stallworth came from Alabama A&M they felt confident he’d be there later so they took Lambert in the 2nd despite having no 3rd round pick. They got antsy though and traded up in the 4th to secure Stallworth

A real master class in draft strategy and scouting, and it’s how dynasties are created. 

 

 

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On 1/25/2024 at 10:19 AM, Daniel said:

You seem to be conflating exciting prospect with exciting player in the NFL.

Plus I said if they’re exciting, then they shouldn’t be going Day 3, so unless you are suggesting that there are players that teams look at and say “boy, he’s gonna be a 1000 yard receiver right out the gate, sure hope he makes it to the third because I definitely am not spending a first or second on him,” and that you think that that is the correct decision making process, then I don’t know what your point is.

I think there’s a happy medium here. I think it makes sense to be excited about a player, while also recognizing that they’re not as clean/polished/ready as some other prospects that you draft ahead of them. 

Some of the guys you’re taking later you know are going to be boom/bust based on certain factors. That might hurt their draft stock, but I don’t think it should dishearten teams or fans on their potential outlook. It’s cool recognizing that a guy isn’t a blue chip, super clean prospect but still be really hopeful about his NFL career.

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On 1/27/2024 at 12:50 AM, Tugboat said:

 

I think you're still kinda missing the point here.  Nacua going Day 3 is...a huge scouting failure.  That's not a vindication of, "all that scouting was worth it".  It's...just, everybody whiffed on the evaluation, including the team that ultimately scooped him up Day 3.

If that team had any real clue that he was going to be nearly that good, they'd have been racing to make him a much earlier pick.  The Rams picked SEVEN other players before they finally thought Pua was the best "value".  😆  They clearly didn't have a clue what they were getting there.

 

That's what most Day 3 hidden gems and "steals" are.  A big dash of luck and a lot of collective scouting failure across the league.  Where maybe some particular scout is thrown a bone and are just banging the table for a guy because they "see something" there.  But the scouting and management as a whole haven't evaluated that player as "worth" a Day 1/2 pick.  And the reality of scouting is...that particular scout has probably also been certain that they "saw something special" in a whole bunch of chumps who washed out of the league before they even finished their rookie contracts.

 

The real "scouting wins" are when you have those "wtf?" picks on Day 1 or 2 that the consensus had going much much later, that a team has the conviction to go up and "overdraft" completely off script.  Get raked over the coals through the whole post-draft post mortem for months...until that player hits the field and suddenly explodes into a star.  Then everyone scrambles to revise history and posture as though it was somehow an obvious thing that this guy was going to be a stud because of this or that, retroactively.  lol.

Nacua did not run at the combine so that is one, and at BYU he was never with a great QBs really so he was limited there and he was hurt a bit his final season as well and his production dipped.  His ability to run after contact was super underrated and he did rush for over 200 yards his last year on BYU and 5 TDs.  That is the real take away, his toughness and how teams did not really consider that just because he was not 4.3 or 4.4 in the 40.  He ran a 4.55 I believe but obviously is a physical athlete and takes contact very well for a WR.

 

He was 7th in the NFL in total targets and 6th in the NFL in YAC.

 

He also plays with a Hall of Fame QB in Matthew Stafford and one of the better offensive minds in the NFL with McVay.  If he was drafted by a different organization it could have been a total different result for him potentially.  McVay and the Rams like big physical receivers, and he was used well in that role and was more physical than a lot of DBs he went up against.  Ben Skowronek had a bit of success with them and they use him as a TE/WR type but obviously ever an actual in line TE.  Kupp was hurt to start the year also so that opened the door for Nacua as well so in lined up.  

 

So really it is a matter of who in the up coming draft is good after contact, not a ton of guys but I would say Luke McCaffrey is right up there with any of them.  If one is talking toughness and grit Drake Stoops is another one, tons of experience on special teams and is willing to do the dirty work that is for sure.  Like with everything though it matters greatly who a players is drafted by and what type of organization they are walking into.  There are a lot of good football players in the NFL where no one really cares what they do because the team they are on loses.  

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19 hours ago, AZ_Eaglesfan said:

Was hoping he would last till the second... but that dudes going round 1.

He may be a victim of the numbers game at WR this year. This class is so, so stacked. You've got the top tier guys- MHJr, Nabers, Odunze- but then you've got a logjam of like 10 guys who you could justify taking in the first round. Brian Thomas Jr, Roman Wilson, Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman, Troy Franklin, both Texas WRs, Tez Walker, Xavier Legette, and there are some others there too. There may need to be 7 receivers go in round 1 for McConkey to be one of those guys, because I think the top 3 and Brian Thomas Jr, Coleman, and Franklin go before him.

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Just now, minutemancl said:

He may be a victim of the numbers game at WR this year. This class is so, so stacked. You've got the top tier guys- MHJr, Nabers, Odunze- but then you've got a logjam of like 10 guys who you could justify taking in the first round. Brian Thomas Jr, Roman Wilson, Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman, Troy Franklin, both Texas WRs, Tez Walker, Xavier Legette, and there are some others there too. There may need to be 7 receivers go in round 1 for McConkey to be one of those guys, because I think the top 3 and Brian Thomas Jr, Coleman, and Franklin go before him.

It is definitely a very nice class at WR. Will be interesting to see how it all falls out.

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