2024 Packers Draft Immediate Thoughts

[Uffdaswede]

20 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

The "consensus" board is known to be the media consensus. It's not an issue. It just is what it is. 

And the media consensus board has proven recently to be an average NFL GM.

That's the interesting point here. Why is a media consensus big board just as good as more than 50% of NFL GMs?

Crowd sourcing is strange magic.

Remember the “ask the audience” lifeline on Who Do You Know Wants to Be a Millionaire? It was a great tool for answering really random questions when all four choices seemed plausible. The correct response usually nudged the incorrects by tiny margins.

The winnowing of data across many many sources somehow shakes out into a fairly decent model as there is a bias for better information over bad information. 

[Packerraymond]

1 minute ago, incognito_man said:

It was interesting to me how much Gute focused on the "getting to know the person" part of the process in his post draft presser. Specifically how it's harder now due to transfer portal because prospects don't get to be as well known in one place. You really need to get every edge you can in the process as an org now. And a lot of the football skills and athleticsm is now public knowledge, so you have to employ resources in edge-finding however you can. And that's the "character" part of it to narrow your risk/reward calculations.

A lot of that is done through the college coaches for that reason, they're the constant. There's really no reason for Gute to travel to pro days for pure "scouting" purposes, nothing they do there is important enough that an area scout cant cover it, but he gets chances to interact briefly with the players themselves and schmooze the coaching staff. I used to get emails all the time at UWO between May and July, basically is anyone on your roster an NFL talent and in your opinion any players on competing teams in the WIAC have NFL talent. You put anyone on those lists and the good teams would call and ask to speak to the HC for a character check. Weight room attendance, meeting habits, personality, are they a captain?, just general background stuff, etc .. they do their homework from top to bottom, D1 to D3.

[Scoremore]

Watching path to the draft right now.  Williams and Odunze.  Blah blah blah.  Don't they know this is the Bears?  Where QB's go to die?  Hey OLD GUY my girl Cynthia Freland is on right now and she's looking pretty good tonight.  I find myself wanting her.  ha ha ha...You are full of it OG. 

[coachbuns]

7 hours ago, spilltray said:

This is just so ridiculous. If a team has a good front office they are better off ignoring any media boards, even a consensus average. 

 

The teams have better information than the media. Their opinion is more informed.

Anybody who believes that media/concensus boards knows more about the "skills" and "attributes" of college football players vs any NFL team with numerous scouts/personnel dedicated to that craft is more than often wrong.  That being said, there a more than a few NFL general managers that draft depending what the owner demands or to save his butt.  

Edited April 30 by coachbuns

[incognito_man]

1 hour ago, Scoremore said:

Now the whole there isn't such a thing as a steal I don't buy either.  Get the theory but to throw some cold water on it.  Would you call Tom Brady a steal?  Stephon Diggs?  Aaron Jones?  Hell for that matter Brock Purdy?  I guess at the time they were drafted you could say no but with the benefit of hinesight they clearly were.

This is not how a "steal" is defined in this debate. A "steal" is someone the media consensus was higher on than the league. 

You named players the media and the league missed on. 

The overall point is that media defined "steals" are players EVERY team passed on. The assumption is that there is non-public negative information about the player. And that these types of players are avoided for a reason and work out for the team at a lower rate than average.

[Smidgeon]

5 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

That's for the GM to decipher, the consensus board just ranks them as a player, regardless of scheme.

So maybe use the next best consensus player at the same position as selected to put in the "smarter than Gute" thread. That way it's still ILB but it's "next best consensus ILB" instead. 

[squire12]

5 hours ago, Mazrimiv said:

Need to start putting the highest remaining consensus pick by round into the "smarter than Gute" thread.  I'm actually interested in how that would play out.  I've heard many times that beating the consensus board is not an easy thing to do.  Generally speaking, I believe that it's probably true.

• Pick 25:   Cooper DeJean DB (consensus rank 18, actual pick 40)
• pick 41:  Kool Aid McKinstry CB (consensus rank 26, actual pick 41)
  • trade back to 45:  Adonai Mitchell WR (consensus rank 28, actual pick 52)
• pick 58:  Ennis Rakestraw CB (consensus rank 38 actual pick 61)
• pick 88:  Troy Franklin WR (consensus rank 39, actual pick 102)
• Pick 91:  Payton Wilson LB (consensus rank 45, actual pick 98)
• Pick 111:  Trade up TJ Tampa CB (consensus rank 50, actual pick 130)
  • no trade up results in the same pick at pick 126
• Pick 169:  Malik Washington WR (consensus rank 94, actual pick 184)
• Pick 202:  Christian Mahogany IOL ( consensus rank 101, actual pick 210)
• Pick 219:  Brendan Rice WR (consensus rank 111, actual pick 225)
• Pick 245:  Gabriel Murphy EDGE (consensus rank 117, not drafted)
• Pick 255:  Leonard Taylor DL (consensus rank 128, not drafted)

if the trade with NO for 41 to get 45, 168 and 190 happens, the picks at

• 168 Malik Washington
• 169, Christian Mahogany
• 190  DJ James CB  (consensus rank 109, actual pick 192)
• 202, Brendan Rice
• 219,  Gabriel Murphy
• 245  Leonard Taylor
•  255  Gabe Hall DL (consensus rank 161, not drafted)

following the consensus rankings nets

• 2 or 3 or 4 CB and 1 CB/S
• 3 or 4 WR
• 1 ILB
• 1 IOL
• 1 EDGE
• 1 -2 DL

 

[Refugee]

1 hour ago, Scoremore said:

Now the whole there isn't such a thing as a steal I don't buy either.  Get the theory but to throw some cold water on it.  Would you call Tom Brady a steal?  Stephon Diggs?  Aaron Jones?  Hell for that matter Brock Purdy?  I guess at the time they were drafted you could say no but with the benefit of hinesight they clearly were.  

 

My hinesight is crystal clear and at times is all I can see. It has gotten me into a good bit of trouble before but a man has to have a credo.

Arguing about reaches and steals the day after the draft is fine as a pastime but you’re right, no one really knows. It’s obvious the GMs’ boards are not the consensus “draftnik” boards. We will get a good idea of who can play this season but some guys will take a bit longer. Any starter in an important role is a steal, as far as I’m concerned, because even first overall picks can bust. 

Edited April 30 by Refugee

[squire12]

1 minute ago, Smidgeon said:

So maybe use the next best consensus player at the same position as selected to put in the "smarter than Gute" thread. That way it's still ILB but it's "next best consensus ILB" instead. 

then you are not following the consensus board, you are cherry picking to fill the draft based on what a team has as their highest remaining player at a similar position.  

[Smidgeon]

3 minutes ago, squire12 said:

then you are not following the consensus board, you are cherry picking to fill the draft based on what a team has as their highest remaining player at a similar position.  

It is a variation, but it addresses where a team isn't going to draft 4 CBs and a CB/S in the same draft. It addresses GB looking to fill certain holes (wasn't going to draft a WR that high this year), but does pick a higher rated consensus player. 

A variation and not pure consensus, but consensus enough to compare apples to apples. 

[squire12]

10 minutes ago, Smidgeon said:

It is a variation, but it addresses where a team isn't going to draft 4 CBs and a CB/S in the same draft. It addresses GB looking to fill certain holes (wasn't going to draft a WR that high this year), but does pick a higher rated consensus player. 

A variation and not pure consensus, but consensus enough to compare apples to apples. 

I think if you are using the consensus board, you need to follow it.  Once you add variations, then you are picking to fill needs and that leads to reaching.  In a technical sense, not taking the consensus highest ranked player is reaching 

[OneTwoSixFive]

10 hours ago, incognito_man said:

Reading through this now and this paragraph stuck out me as a meaningful truth about all of this:

Beyond the empirical evidence, there’s logic to back the idea that steals aren’t a thing but reaches could be. In order to lose value reaching on a player, only one team has to have a bad assessment. The decision to reach and draft the player is entirely within one team’s control. For steals, it’s a combination of multiple team opinions

Gute's gut is a guttier gut than your GMs gut. Ver gut !

[Mazrimiv]

7 hours ago, squire12 said:

I think if you are using the consensus board, you need to follow it.  Once you add variations, then you are picking to fill needs and that leads to reaching.  In a technical sense, not taking the consensus highest ranked player is reaching 

To me, this is part of the problem with "beating" the consensus board.  As your consensus draft results showed, some of those picks would have been nonsensical for Gute to make, so what is the consensus that Gute needs to beat?

[Rainmaker90]

I'm going to talk more about process than do a deep dive into the prospects.

 

I loved the first 4 picks.

 

I'm happy with Morgan. Experienced T with good movement and versatile. A dominant o-line will do wonders for Love, he gives us a better opportunity.

 

Gotta love the Cooper pick. Great tape, measurable, character. While I do think the first pick needs to premium position, you still need to fill out your roster and we needed a LB. If he and Quay work out it's a massive strength.

 

Bullard is another pick you can't be upset with.  Pedigree, high level play, versatile, team captain. Gives Hafley a lot of options.

 

Love the Lloyd pick. Incredible explosive and a different back than what we have. If he cleans up the fumbles and pass protection I think he's going to be very good.

 

Other than that the King pick is my favorite. I would take swings like that all day.

 

On the surface this is may be my favorite Gute draft.

[packfanfb]

They must have been reading our forum lol. Everyone is talking about the consensus board stuff and how it impacts how we look at draft classes.